SATURDAY: BIG RACE TRENDS

Saturday TV Trends/Stats

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After the success of last week’s Hennessy trends/stats, where the shortlist of 4 included the winner and second, it is time to go again. 

We have a right feast this Saturday and I will be enjoying a trip to Aintree. Last year my pin landed on Oscar Time 33/1 in the Becher Chase and I am overdue a big priced winner so will be looking to repeat the trick.

Below are the trends for the Becher Chase from Aintree and the London National from Sandown. I will preview the Grand Sefton for The Daily Punt Blog. They will email out/post up my initial trends analysis on Friday. I will post up a link when I get it.

For now, some trends and stats for you to start using that will hopefully help you identify a decent shortlist, and with any luck, the winner.

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1.40 Aintree: Becher Chase

18 renewals; 275 runners ; 61 placed horses.

Note: The race conditions changed in 2005, from 6yo+ C2 handicap to it being open to 5yo+ and a C1 Listed Handicap. The ‘trends’ will focus on all races from 1997, whereas the ‘Stats’, when I dig down a bit further, will just concentrate from 2005 onwards.

Trends

12/18 Top 5 LTO

  • 12/158 runners, 42 places…67% of winners, from 57% of runners, 69% of placed horses
  • 5/34, 9 places PU or UR LTO

13/18 Aged 8,9,10

  • 13/183 runners, 43 places…72% winners, 67% runners, 70% places
    • So, no edge there. From number of runners the figures are what you would expect.
  • 4/52, 11 places aged 11+…22% winners, 19% runners, 18% places
    • Again, pretty much what you would expect.
  • 0/10, 4 places those aged 5&6
  • 1/30, 3 places Aged 7

12/18 ran 16-60 days ago

  • 12/136, 33 places…67% winners, 49% runners, 54% places
  • 0/69, 13 places ran 1-15 days ago…25% runners, 21% placed horses
  • 6/61, 14 places ran 121-365 days ago

Looking at the ‘maximum distance run’ stats suggest that a run in the Grand National is a positive..

9/18 has run over a max of 4m4f (can only be the National!)

  • 9/94 runners, 29 places…50% winners, 34% runners, 48% places

Market/odds

  • No real guide. Winners at a variety of prices albeit those priced 50/1 or above are 0/19, 1 place to date.

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Other Stats of Interest (2005-)

10 races, 174 runners, 37 places

9/10 had 0 or 1 run in previous 90 days

  • 9/129, 26 places…90% winners, 74% runners, 70% places
  • 1/45, 11 places had 2 or more… 5.5% winners, 26% runners, 29% places

7/10 OR 130-138

  • 7/82, 16 places…70% winners, 47% runners, 43% places
  • 3/9 runners, 5 places OR 146,147,148
  • 0/41, 5 places OR 139-145

0/32, 6 places Aged 5-7 in last 10 years (although no. places in line with number or runners)

0/39, 7 places had fewer than 4 career wins in total

Appears to be a pattern of this going to rather unexposed horses in handicaps, or those with a fair bit of experience…

  • 6/99, 27 places 0,1,2 wins in handicaps…60% winners, 57% runners, 73% places
  • 4/18, 5 places..6,7,8 handicap wins..40% winners, 10% runners, 14% places
  • 0/56, 5 places had 3,4,5 wins in handicaps (there is some logic there)

0/27,3 places ran over Hurdles LTO

Breeding (origin of horse)

  • IRE: 9/115, 26 places
  • FR: 1/42, 9 places
  • GB: 0/16, 2 places
  • GER: 0/1, 0 places

Track LTO (of note)

  • Aintree: 0/26, 3 places
  • Ascot: 0/12, 3 places
  • Cheltenham: 5/25, 9 places (+50.5SP)
  • Wincanton: 0/14, 2 places

Trainers (of note)

  • D T Hughes: 2/5, 3 places (Sandra could have a runner)
  • P Nicholls: 2/17, 7 places
  • NTD: 2/11, 3 places
  • King,Waley-Cohen,Hobbs,Edward P Mitchell – 1 win each
  • T George: 0/4, 2 places
  • D Pipe: 0/10, 1 place
  • P Bowen: 0/17, 4 places

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TOP POINTERS 

There are quite a few decent pointers in there I think. To start with I will probably focus on…

Top 5 or PU/UR LTO; Aged 8+; NOT run 1-15 days ago; 0-1 Run last 90 days; 4+ career wins 

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SANDOWN 

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3.35: London National

11 renewals (2013-); 100 runners, 30 places

7/11 Top 3 LTO

  • 7/44 runners, 16 places…64% winners, 44% runners, 53% places
  • 0/7, 1 place PU LTO

5/6 Year olds: 0/7, 0 places. No significant age trends

10/11 had 0,1,2 runs this season

  • 10/78, 27 places…91% winners, 78% runners, 90% places
  • 1/22, 3 places had 3+

Market/Odds

11/11 – 12/1 or shorter SP

  • 0/22, 5 places, 14/1+

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Other Stats of Note

8/63, 20 places PLACED on at least one of last two starts

  • 73% winners, 63% runners, 67% places

11/11, 3+ career wins

  • 0/19, 5 places had 0,1,2 career wins

11/11, 0-3 Handicap Chase Wins

  • 0/20, 3 places had 4+ handicap chase wins
  • 1/9, 4 places had 3 handicap chase wins

0/32, 5 places had 4 or more Handicap Wins (all handicaps)

9/11, moving up 1,2 or 3 classes

  • 9/59 runners, 19 places…82% winners, 59% runners, 63% places
  • 2/40, 11 places running at same or dropping in class

Trainers (of note)

  • T George: 3/6, 4 places, +15 SP
  • Middleton,Chamings,Sherwood,Williams,Nicholls,Lavelle,McCain,Hobbs – 1 win each.
  • NTD: 0/5, 1 place
  • Jonjo: 0/4, 0 places
  • Miss V Williams: 0/4, 0 places
  • D Pipe: 0/5, 1 place
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