12.20 Sedg – Cumbrian Farmer 7/1 (WH/BetBright/Boyle) UP 4/1 – K Slack hasn’t been training under rules for long but has done well with his runners to date -7/26, 14 places with all runners in 2015. He is 2/6, 4 places with horses from other stables first time out, and has sent 8 runners to the track in total, 3 have won, 6 have placed. This is an awful race with every horse having major questions to answer. I thought 7s was fair to take a chance on this one. Brooke has won 5 times on this trainer’s horses from 16 rides and I think the fact he has been booked is significant. The ground is a bit of an unknown but the price, in context of how poor the rest are, allows that chance.
Using the same stats he also runs Runswick Relax in the 1.50- this one is being backed as well and comes here after a much longer break. I don’t know if Brooke would have had the choice or not but he rides another one in here who he has ridden previously. It is another poor race but this horse has ran ok around 24f previously and drops down to 16f which could be a concern. I thought his other runner looked to have a better chance but will see if I have got that right!
12.40 South – Boolass 9/2 (SJ) 4/1 (general) – UP 9/2 Looking at my stats guide I can see that Ellison is 6/13, 10 places with his maiden runners here 12/1 or under (months Nov-April) since 2010. This one had a bit of a break before his run LTO where he ran well enough in a handicap. He has ran well over CD before and some of the others will have to prove a liking for the track. He looks sure to run his race for a jockey that has a decent enough record around here.
2.40 South – Deep Resolve 8/1 (general) UP 7/2– Swinbank is 17/42, 25 places with his handicappers here that are 8/1 or shorter during the ‘winter season’. Fanning is 7/14 when riding for this trainer on the All-Weather – that caught my eye. The horse handles this surface (won a maiden here) and takes a drop in class from recent turf runs. He has ran poorly a couple of times in handicaps over CD which is a slight concern, but given the stats, jockey booking and the price I couldn’t resist. If he does drift we could be in a bit of trouble as the trainer is currently 0/16 with those priced over 8/1, indicating market support is significant.
I had a good look at the 3pm Lingfield – Chase the Spud caught my eye when flicking through last night – he was 10/1 (effectively 8/1 after R4) but he is now 6/1 generally which is probably about right. I think fresh is the best time to catch him and if he runs like he did at Exeter he will go close here. The two PUs would be a concern but he could have strengthened up again and is unexposed. The rest have questions to answer with the Moore runner looking the most interesting of the rest given his unexposed profile. Wilton Milan needs to prove he stays and I haven’t seen much evidence of that yet. Fourovakind comes from a yard that can do no wrong at the moment but he is 10yo and has needed his last two seasonal reappearances – so I am unsure as to his fitness. Rocky Bender can clout the odd fence and could need the run – he has no proven ‘reappearance’ winning form. He is 10 and is only 1/20 in his career, needing a lot to drop right. But, it is November, it is Williams, it is heavy ground and she has a good record here. If it is a slog he probably wont be far away.
If Chase The Spud was still 10s, or 8s, I would have taken a chance I think but I have missed that price so will leave him. You may think 6s is ok and I hope he runs well. 2nd (neck) 4/1
1.10 South – Contendit (12/1 or under) NR
1.30 Ling – Kings River (16/1 or under) WON 8/1 >5/1
3.00 Ling – Rocky Bender (16/1 or under) FELL
3.40 South – Perfect Peak (12/1 or under) DNQ
1.20 Sedge – Seventeen Black (12/1 or under) UP (big late drift)
2.20 Sedge – Retrieve The Stick (12/1 or under) WON 7/1 (drifted)