Price is king as they say in this game and while the records will show a -6 point loss for the tips and shortlist there were plenty of positives for me personally to take out of today.
Firstly, the big chase tips. Well, let’s start with the tips. As they were both being backed in the morning I was feeling confident enough but then they drifted. Cloudy Too drifted markedly and the writing was on the wall before the tapes went up. No excuses, he had his perfect conditions but put up no show. I wont be rushing to back him anytime soon. I expected better. The Longsdon horse went well for a long way before tiring turning in. But, when backing horses at 8/1 and 9/1 there will be more runs like that than winners. And the winners will come.
The right horses on my analysis came first and second and if my two weren’t going to compete I am glad they did. At a different time, they could both well have been selections and in general I am happy with the analysis.
Now,onto price. If you backed the NTD horse who got caught late at 8/1, or even 6s maybe (given he ended up at 11/4) that was a good bet, so give yourself a pat on the back. When looking this morning I knew he had been available at 8s, so taking 5s didn’t feel right. What A Good Night was seriously considered, but I had some niggles over his jumping which made the 11/2 this morning seem tight to me – in the end he drifted to 9/1 and I wish that price was available this morning. I can’t say hand on heart I would have backed him at that price, but that would have felt big enough to overlook the jumping issue and he would have been closer to being a selection, more so maybe if Cloudy Too was obviously weak in the market.(wins have been when 8/1 or under,bit of a money horse maybe) But, that is racing, and that is ‘tipping’.2 of the 4 on my shortlist came 1st an 2nd and the main reason I didn’t back them was price. Getting your shortlist right is a decent sign moving forward.
The shortlist ran ok. Goldie’s was just outclassed which was the fear but he beat the rest and I was happy to take the chance. Lavelle’s ran really poorly (inc system). Gardner’s was backed from 5s into 9/4 and pulled his chance away. If he had settled early that could have been a different outcome. But, a good bet for me.
I personally made 1 point on the systems. I ignored the two in the 2.00pm, backed VWs winner at 7/2 and had 1/2 point on Bailey’s in same race. I also backed Bridgewater’s other one for 1 full point as well as Levelle’s.
Those of you coming to the blog this week, or today, probably think I have never looked at a horse race before in my life! It has been a bit turgid so far after a brilliant week last week. In part that was inevitable, the portfolio cant make 50+ points every week, although that would be nice. I will have a think about advice for points banks etc, but I would be tempted to have a separate one for the systems and for the Tips/Shortlists. Paper trade if you wish, or start of with smaller stakes and build up your bank. It took me 5 years or so to go from backing at £2.5 per point up to £20 which is now my standard 1 point bet. This portfolio has, and will, find decent odds winners, and I will back plenty of losers. I am recording results thoroughly, and this approach only started in this form at the start of October. Come the end of November, and December the direction of travel should be clear. I have said it before but I would like the portfolio to average +20 points or so a month, and I will see if that is possible. That will mean some poor months, some very good months, and all I am bothered about is that over periodic periods, 3/6/9/12 months say, we are doing just that. The idea is that over-time everything I put up here is profitable, so you can back the lot if you wish. However, I know many readers will use the systems as a guide, and the tips/shortlist and what you do with the info is always up to you. As I have said, I back all tips/shortlisted horses to 1 point win bets, unless otherwise stated.
3.00 Ludlow –
Cardinal Rose 20/1 – 1 point EW (2 pts total) (general – BF,BB,WH)
I just could not resist a poke at 20/1 here and due to the price I have gone EW – but having learnt my lesson from the past I want at least 1 point on the win side. Clearly this is a bit of a punt, but an educated one. This race doesnt look the strongest on paper.
This horse used to be with Jonjo and is only have his 4th chase start here. He returned last season after 900+ days off for his new trainer and ran a cracker to finish 2nd – so, I can’t think fitness will be a problem. He then dotted up at Southwell, jumping right – that race may have been weak, albeit a couple of winners came out of it. He couldn’t do any more. He races prominently, will like the ground, should be fit, is unexposed and looks interesting. All in all, 20s just looked too big. It could be he just wont be good enough,and he will need to step up again, but he has a good as chance as quite a few in here…
I started looking at the race thinking I would back King Massini, having backed him LTO – and while it would be annoying of he won, it wouldn’t be a shock. But, he is 4s and not 20s. I expected him to run better LTO and I still have a niggle as to whether he truly stays this trip. He has yet to win over it and hasnt won for some time. But his mark is low, there were signs of life LTO, and if he comes on for that run he wont be too far away.
When looking at these races I split the runners into 3 categories…’been there and done it’, ‘been there and havent done it’ and ‘unexposed’. There isnt really a horse that has been there and done it in all race conditions. Take The Mick is a close fit, and is trained by Williams so should be feared. Like a lot of these he is unproven (but hasnt had many goes) in the class and could want it softer, and looks to need a lot to fall right. I wonder in these conditions if he could get tapped for toe.
Rockiteer,Haykack,Shy John,Five Star Wilsham,Faustina Pius all have a few too many questions to answer for me, or a few unknowns – fitness for Shy John for example. Hayjack os 0/4,0 places chasing and you would want to see more. Castle Conflict is an unexposed 10y over fences but has fitness questions.
Highpower and Simpy The West are unexposed, but they havent done much in their limited chase runs to date. Clearly there could be more to come, but they do need to step up. I am happy to take them on at the prices.
So, all in all, I think there could be quite a few in here that don’t really get into it and that makes an EW bet at 20s more tempting. Hopefully Cardinal Rose can bounce off near the front, get into a rythm and go from there. If he is still there turning in, he will stay, and should be fit, and at that point we can start to get excited hopefully.
My shortlisting has been poor this week, too many shorties, with a few too many unknowns (fitness,first time jumping etc, you can take chances at 9/1, 4/1, not so much) and I have had a word with myself. I also don’t want to be betting 5/6 points a day on average across the tips/shortlist, and as they say, less can be more…
3.40 Taunton – Filbert – 10/1 general. Hobbs is 8/23, 12 places with his handicap chasers here, 3/10 with this jockey. The one niggle is his poor seasonal reappearance, but that is why he is this price. On paper, and on past exploits (a c2 chase winner) he has a good a chance as any of these, and I couldnt resist a play at this price. All race conditions look fine and he should go ok. It is hard to make an overly compelling case for much else in here. Williams horse is one of the few of hers who to date look like they need a run – 0/3, 0 places on reappearance to date,but maybe he will be ready today. The blinkers may do the trick for the Nicholls horse but he is short enough. Plenty have questions to answer. It is a slight concern Johnson is at Ludlow and clearly things he has some better chances there but again, 10s is too tempting.
Hobbs also runs He’s A Bully in the 2.10 and he could go well now he has his head infront. It is a Novice Handicap Chase and he is open to being attacked to anything more unexposed, of which there are quite a few in here. I thought about it, on balance 4s seems ok and not overly generous, given his profile and the number of ‘could be anthything’ chase debutants etc he was up against. But, his experience may win through.
Signing off, 09.48
1.50 South – Ancient Cross (12/1 or under)
3.00 Ludl – Take The Mick (16/1 or under)
3.40 Taunt – Shangani (16/1 or under)
1.40 Taunt – Lily Waugh (12/1 or under)
2.00 Ludl- Saffron Prince (14/1 or under)
2.10 Taunt – Golan Dancer (14/1 or under)
3.40 Taunt – No Buts (14/1 or under)