Members Report: 03/11/15 (UPDATED)

The main tip ran ok ‘yesterday’ coming second, having been backed from 5s into 3/1. But, he bumped into what looks like a progressive 10yo who I clearly underestimated. However, it was a step back in the right direction. We got a run for our money and beat the market, which is always a positive. Thankfully the only shortlist horse of the day won at 16/1 to give us the perfect start to November. Hopefully I can build on that in the next few weeks. I have updated the results post and just have the annual review to do + add a link to the results doc. 

TIP

3.20 Exeter – Ziga Boy 15/2 (general) 1 point win  – UP 

This is a decent handicap chase which could well throw up plenty of winners this season (albeit at a moderate enough level) Firstly we have Saroque WON 12/1 > 10/1 onside already who is now 8/1, having been 12s / 14s when I posted the system selections last night. He looks sure to go well. I contemplated sticking with him but decided to have another on my side. 

Ziga Boy was on my radar last season and I backed him a couple of times. He ran in this race last year on his seasonal reappearance but was inexperienced and only a 5yo. In a race where a lot of the fences were omitted due to sun, he was travelling ok and looked sure to play a part in the finish before trying to take the second last with him. It was a race ending blunder and the jockey nursed him home after that. In general he is a decent jumper and I will put the odd errors he made last season down to inexperience. He looked like winning at Newbury before unseating as well. He could have a bit in hand here and he could become a decent C2 chaser this season. He will have strengthened again over the summer, given his age, and he could be an exciting handicap chaser to follow this year. There looks to be plenty of pace pressing horses in here which should suit his held up/stalking style. 

Alan King is 3/13, 4 places here with his handicap chasers and if he wants them to be fit first time up, they are. I will have to trust that he is ready to go, and if not, I would be surprised if he is not in the winners enclosure some time soon. He ran in some decent enough races, against hardy handicappers, last season and this could be the year he comes into his own. 15/2 underestimates his chance here I feel. 

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Russe Blanc is the only real ‘been there and done it’ horse in the field (who isnt in a fully ‘unexposed’ category). This is only his 15th chase start but he will need a career best first time up. He has gone well fresh and has placed a few times, always lacking that final sharpness to date. There could be better handicapped horses in here. Big Society is interesting due to the trainer change. He is in great form and this horse has been well backed. He is unexposed as a chaser, 0/10, 4 places for Tom George, and does have something to prove. He gets headgear and is interesting. Market suggests  a decent run. Belmont is unexposed and ran well LTO, although I am not sure as to the strength of that form and Whats Left goes up in class here and will need to improve again – which is possible. There are plenty of other unexposed ones in here, and a few that have to prove they like conditions having tried them before (Midnight Liara 0/7, 1 place beyond 2m7f for example). 

It should be a great race and if he jumps well I don’t think Ziga Boy will be too far away here. 

 

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THE SHORTLIST 

4.00 Redcar – Giant Spark – 14/1  – 3rd 33/1 – Midgley is 2/5, 3 places with his handicap debutants at the track – against an overall record of 6/47 with all hncp debutants, that track stat is interesting. He showed some promise in a CD maiden LTO at a massive 125/1 and he could be thereabouts at a price. There are 4 places to play for if you prefer EW. There is also plenty of pace on his side as well. 

4.20 Exeter – Brave Deed 12/1 WON 10.75/1 (10p R4 > 7/1 SP) – Trainer/jockey are 5/27, 11 places with handicap hurdlers here. Solid if unspectacular. This is a weak race and although he is 9, this will only be his 8th run. He is still unexposed and ran ok when last seen. The break may have done him good, the trainer had a decent winner today, and I am happy to take a chance on him. He also runs the fav but he is half the price. 14% of his hurdlers win after such a break, 30% place, so if the trainer wants him to be ready to go first time out, he will be. Tom George has a decent record with hurdlers here from a small sample, but his horse has 3 PUs next to his name and I cant back him. The Gardners also have a good record, but an awful one with horses after a break – indeed her hurdlers returning 121-365 days are only 2/80. Again, I can’t have that. The Honeyball runner below looks unlikely to qualify unless the money arrives. His City Supreme looks the more interesting runner. 

5.40 Wolvs – Feeltherythm 10/3 (WH) 3/1 (BF/BV/LAD) – he was 7/2 across the board when I started researching and it looks like the money is going to come. The trainer is 3/9 with stable newcomers in last 2 years and 2/4 at Wolvs with such runners. This Irish horse ran well when last seen and in what is a shocker of a race 3/1 could look generous. He is well drawn, unexposed and looks likely to be ready to go here. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

3.20 Exet – Saroque (16/1 or under) WON, as above

4.00 Redcar (all 12/1 or under)…Bionic Indian / Iggy / Perfect Peak (all for Easterby…interesting- could be a ‘better have a nibble on all of them just in case race’?!) NONE QUALIFIED, all drifted and ran as such. 

Lavelle (14/1 or under)

1.20 Exeter – Pawn Star- DNQ 

Jumps Handicappers 

3.50 Exet – City Supreme (12/1 or under) UP 8/1

4.20 Exet – Prince of Thieves (12/1 or under) DNQ

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. I like russe blanc I the 3.20 backed it last night at 11/1 a long with sarouge from your November trainer angle russe will be happy at the distance and runs well first time out thought was a good ew bet

    1. Yep couldnt disagree with that assessment and certainly an EW price – goes ok fresh and ticks a lot of boxes. There are quite a few more unexposed horses in here which I thought could have a bit more in hand than him – but, they have it to prove, he doesnt. He should be thereabouts if fit. GL.

        1. click on the ‘Blog’ tab above, top of site, and it is the 7th or so post down the left. ‘November Trainers’

    1. Yep – glad he stuck on, great ride! That ground looked atrocious, Ziga Boy travelled well enough but then tank emptied I think – but, who cares, 12/1 winner for VW will do nicely!

  2. Giant Spark – not that far off and got 50s! But November trainers, big BOOM for Venetia with Saroque at 8/1. Shame about Ziga Boy.

    1. Good stuff Roger – yes another massive drifter to run well, another hundred yards and dream land! Thought there were more on his side to take him into it, but they all tacked over and he was a bit green – massive horse, one for next year, albeit moderate level. Yep – did you get best odds guaranteed with Saroque? went back out to 10s – I backed both so profit wise he was the better winner – Ground really went and Ziga travelled really well – before seeming to hit empty turning in. Jumped well, one to keep onside. May come on for it. If Saroque wasnt a system bet I would have tipped him but tried to make clear I had backed him anyway!

  3. Blimey, already clear in the profit and still got the all-weather hasn’t even started!

    Well done on your stats and shortlisting work

    1. Cheers Ali, yes this has been a rather good day! The AW one was the more confident one – but uneasy in market and well, doesnt matter what he does now! I never bet EW doubles, but did on the 33/1 3rd and 12/1 winner – returned +16 points, so, not a bad day at office all in!

  4. Been following selections since early October, haven’t done too well. So what do I do? No bets last two days. Lesson learned, ”keep the faith”. Great stuff Josh.

    1. Ah Peter, sorry to hear that, but in truth we have all been there a few times. If starting out in October I don’t blame you for having a wobble given how volatile that month turned out to be – a few too many falling out the back of the TV for my own comfort. But, overall it wasnt a massive loss on the month all in, and the systems made it decent in the end if following them. It is the nature of my approach and odds that I play at that there will be a few more clunkers than winners, and many more losers than winners..but in general the last 12 months have shown they are worth waiting for. Whether or not you start betting with smaller stakes I don’t know – I think for Tips/Shortlist/BRP horses a 50 point bank should be fine say, and you may wish to build up over time. I started betting £2.5 per point a few years ago and progressed through to £5, £10, £15 and now £20 per point. All about comfort levels. But, then again, the info is there for you to use as you please and by no means do you have to back them all blind – using your own nous to pick and choose as you see fit.

    1. Massively impressive run from Giant Spark given the last few meetings at recar there has been a massive draw bias on soft ground for runners drawn low so definitely one for the tracker

      1. Yes totally agree with you both. As it turned out they did all tack over – reinforcing an actual or perceived bias by jockeys’?! – but either way he was left on his own a bit and did lose some ground coming across. He also looked a bit green still and a massive animal. Would imagine he will be much stronger next year, and maybe year after that. Could well be way ahead of mark next season so will be interesting to track. Probably needs some give in ground though. Definitely into the tracker.

    1. Cheers Faz – not like that everyday so you have to enjoy it! Steady profits over time in the name of the game.

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