The main tip ran ok ‘yesterday’ coming second, having been backed from 5s into 3/1. But, he bumped into what looks like a progressive 10yo who I clearly underestimated. However, it was a step back in the right direction. We got a run for our money and beat the market, which is always a positive. Thankfully the only shortlist horse of the day won at 16/1 to give us the perfect start to November. Hopefully I can build on that in the next few weeks. I have updated the results post and just have the annual review to do + add a link to the results doc.
3.20 Exeter – Ziga Boy 15/2 (general) 1 point win – UP
This is a decent handicap chase which could well throw up plenty of winners this season (albeit at a moderate enough level) Firstly we have Saroque WON 12/1 > 10/1 onside already who is now 8/1, having been 12s / 14s when I posted the system selections last night. He looks sure to go well. I contemplated sticking with him but decided to have another on my side.
Ziga Boy was on my radar last season and I backed him a couple of times. He ran in this race last year on his seasonal reappearance but was inexperienced and only a 5yo. In a race where a lot of the fences were omitted due to sun, he was travelling ok and looked sure to play a part in the finish before trying to take the second last with him. It was a race ending blunder and the jockey nursed him home after that. In general he is a decent jumper and I will put the odd errors he made last season down to inexperience. He looked like winning at Newbury before unseating as well. He could have a bit in hand here and he could become a decent C2 chaser this season. He will have strengthened again over the summer, given his age, and he could be an exciting handicap chaser to follow this year. There looks to be plenty of pace pressing horses in here which should suit his held up/stalking style.
Alan King is 3/13, 4 places here with his handicap chasers and if he wants them to be fit first time up, they are. I will have to trust that he is ready to go, and if not, I would be surprised if he is not in the winners enclosure some time soon. He ran in some decent enough races, against hardy handicappers, last season and this could be the year he comes into his own. 15/2 underestimates his chance here I feel.
Russe Blanc is the only real ‘been there and done it’ horse in the field (who isnt in a fully ‘unexposed’ category). This is only his 15th chase start but he will need a career best first time up. He has gone well fresh and has placed a few times, always lacking that final sharpness to date. There could be better handicapped horses in here. Big Society is interesting due to the trainer change. He is in great form and this horse has been well backed. He is unexposed as a chaser, 0/10, 4 places for Tom George, and does have something to prove. He gets headgear and is interesting. Market suggests a decent run. Belmont is unexposed and ran well LTO, although I am not sure as to the strength of that form and Whats Left goes up in class here and will need to improve again – which is possible. There are plenty of other unexposed ones in here, and a few that have to prove they like conditions having tried them before (Midnight Liara 0/7, 1 place beyond 2m7f for example).
It should be a great race and if he jumps well I don’t think Ziga Boy will be too far away here.
4.00 Redcar – Giant Spark – 14/1 – 3rd 33/1 – Midgley is 2/5, 3 places with his handicap debutants at the track – against an overall record of 6/47 with all hncp debutants, that track stat is interesting. He showed some promise in a CD maiden LTO at a massive 125/1 and he could be thereabouts at a price. There are 4 places to play for if you prefer EW. There is also plenty of pace on his side as well.
4.20 Exeter – Brave Deed 12/1 WON 10.75/1 (10p R4 > 7/1 SP) – Trainer/jockey are 5/27, 11 places with handicap hurdlers here. Solid if unspectacular. This is a weak race and although he is 9, this will only be his 8th run. He is still unexposed and ran ok when last seen. The break may have done him good, the trainer had a decent winner today, and I am happy to take a chance on him. He also runs the fav but he is half the price. 14% of his hurdlers win after such a break, 30% place, so if the trainer wants him to be ready to go first time out, he will be. Tom George has a decent record with hurdlers here from a small sample, but his horse has 3 PUs next to his name and I cant back him. The Gardners also have a good record, but an awful one with horses after a break – indeed her hurdlers returning 121-365 days are only 2/80. Again, I can’t have that. The Honeyball runner below looks unlikely to qualify unless the money arrives. His City Supreme looks the more interesting runner.
5.40 Wolvs – Feeltherythm 10/3 (WH) 3/1 (BF/BV/LAD) – he was 7/2 across the board when I started researching and it looks like the money is going to come. The trainer is 3/9 with stable newcomers in last 2 years and 2/4 at Wolvs with such runners. This Irish horse ran well when last seen and in what is a shocker of a race 3/1 could look generous. He is well drawn, unexposed and looks likely to be ready to go here.
3.20 Exet – Saroque (16/1 or under) WON, as above
4.00 Redcar (all 12/1 or under)…Bionic Indian / Iggy / Perfect Peak (all for Easterby…interesting- could be a ‘better have a nibble on all of them just in case race’?!) NONE QUALIFIED, all drifted and ran as such.
Lavelle (14/1 or under)
1.20 Exeter – Pawn Star- DNQ
3.50 Exet – City Supreme (12/1 or under) UP 8/1
4.20 Exet – Prince of Thieves (12/1 or under) DNQ