Annual Review + October Review

What follows are the results from October and then a look back over the last 12 months.  

***

OCTOBER

MICRO SYSTEMS 

The October Trainers performed well. Backing all of them when within qualifying range…

59 bets / 10 wins / 24 places / +25 points (taking morning prices) – about +13 more points above ISP taking earlier prices. 

A King 

16 bets / 2 wins / 9 places / -10.37 SP (-8.37 taking 4/1 about 2/1 winner)

Andrew Balding 

15 bets / 1 win / 1 place / -2 SP (+2 taking 16/1 about 12/1 shot) 

Simcock

8 bets / 1 win / 2 places / -2 SP (-1 taking earlier price) 

Channon 

12 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / +12.91 SP (+18.17 taking earlier prices) 

NTD

9 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / +12 SP (+14 earlier prices) 

***

So, the 3 monthly trainer systems have pulled in around +39.5 points so far which is decent enough, if backing them all systematically. 

***

Fahey 2yos were 1/6, 4 places for the month, -1 SP. But, that is an ‘all year system’ (July-November when nurseries are run)

All-Weather Switchers on -1 SP for October. 

Emma Lavelle is on +4.5 with November to go. 

***

Jumps Handicappers are on -17 SP so far, having only found one short priced winner. But, that is a portfolio of 10 trainers and 9 have had runners, the worst being 3 losers to date. As with all micro angles they should be profitable over time to back systematically but these in particular are a decent ‘way in’. I do ask myself whether or not I can discount the horse (rather than asking what is its winning chance) and also looking at the odds. If I can’t discount them fully, and I like the price I back them. But, that is my own approach with those so far. 

***

TIPS/SHORTLIST/Big Race Preview 

You can find a copy of this month’s results in the link in the comments box below. In addition to the micro-systems there are three types of ‘tips’. The first I have called ‘tips’ – and is a horse I fancy to go well that I think has a chance and on my judgement is a bigger price than it should be. During the jumps season these will usually focus on handicap/graded chases. Big Race Previews are as they suggest – usually a big Saturday/Festival race that has some stats/trends as a starting point. The Shortlist are horses of interest that have some interesting trainer stats associated with them. They are generally decent prices and that does mean long losing runs. As I write this Mac Gregory has just won for the SL at 16/1, so a decent start to November. These horses are backed by me – and indeed if I am not happy putting my own money on a horse it doesn’t make the post. All results are recorded to 1 point win bets unless otherwise stated. 

Results…

TIPS 

8 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / +11.5 points 

BRP 

6 bets / 0 wins / 0 places / -7 points 

Shortlist 

38 bets / 4 wins / 8 places / -5.25 points 

***

Learning Points 

Well the top level figures are not spectacular but it could have been worse I suppose. A total loss of -0.75 points on the month doesn’t tell the full story. 

There were a couple of close seconds. One at 12/1 who got stuck in a pocket around Lingfield and was arguably unlucky, running out of track. There was also a 22/1 head second for the shortlist, which would have made all the difference. However, he did get beaten by at October Trainer winner so it wasn’t all bad. Tips were ok – the big regret being my whimpy staking of Mukaynis – who won at 20/1. I advised 1/2 each way when there should have been a 1 point bet at least on the win side. With better staking that could have been +7.5 more points. I have learnt that lesson now. If you ever see me advising 1/2 a point do have a word! If I am not confident for a full 1 point then they should not be on the blog. 

Looking at the shortlist those stats which look at a trainer’s horse having its first run in a handicap are most promising. Their formline reads… 2,UP,UP,1,UP,2,UP,UP  – winner at 8/1, close seconds at 12/1 and 22/1. 

In general quite a few of the selections ran poorly but there was enough promise there. With a bit better staking advice it would have been an ok month. I also let a couple of winners get a away which would have helped through indecision. But, what with the October Trainers, and those from the previous couple of months, it has been a decent enough few weeks. 

***

ANNUAL REVIEW 

It has been nearly 12 month since I upped my output on the blog and tried to make it all a bit more ‘professional’. As you know I back everything I put up when there is an advised staking amount. Since the start of October I have made the ‘Shortlist’ more focussed and again back all of those with my own money as well. 

So, there are full results now from the start of October for all activity on the blog, and you can find that in the link below in the comments. 

Let’s take a look at results up to the start of October. 

Firstly, until I ‘re-branded’ the daily blog posts to ‘Members’ Reports I had trialled a few approaches, namely ‘Pace Wins The Race’ and ‘Tip of the Day’. They were very up and down, with the former ending on about +4 points or so and the latter on +6 points or so. I learnt a  bit from those approaches but in general I was forcing myself to bet in races I wouldn’t normally and, well, at times, I was just not very good. Still, they were trials and they did ok, albeit lessons learnt from those approaches are amalgamated into the ‘Members Reports’ They were the first attempts at trying to provide something daily of interest. I think with the portfolio approach encapsulated in the Members Reports I have found the right model moving forwards, but as always your comments are welcome. 

Now, to the results. If you are going to follow a blog, or dip in and out of tips etc, you want to have confidence that long term you will come out in front. Thankfully in the last 12 months that has been the case. 

RESULTS 

So, excluding the ‘Tip of Day/Pace Wins The Race’ Trials (which were around +10 points so not disastrous) the ‘Tips’ – mainly Big Race Previews were as follows…from the first ‘Tip which was in last years Hennessy…

145 bets / 17 wins / 11.7% SR / +68.25 points. 

That is ok, albeit not spectacular. Although I deal in profit, rather than winners and win SR, that % is lower than I would have liked. 

Mainly that is down to my abysmal approach/performance to the three big Festivals, namely Cheltenham, Aintree and Royal Ascot. My Cheltenham coverage found plenty of winners – but I didnt manage to ‘tip’ many of them. I was just not focussed enough and didn’t put the time needed into the races. Less if more at those Festivals tipping wise, and I have learnt that lesson. Having a defined strategy/races to target before the meeting starts would probably have helped as well. 

Ignoring those three big Festivals the results were: 

82 bets / 14 wins / 17% SR / +96.5 points 

There have been plenty of places as well, albeit I was not as rigorous at recording those. That has been addressed in the results since the start of October. 

There have been some notable big race highligts…Many Clouds 9/1 (if only I had followed him all year!); Oscar Time (33/1); Scotswell (8/1); Hawkes Point (14/1); Goonyella (9/1); Wayward Prince (33/1); Desert Law (16/1); Rene Mathis (25/1); Mount Logan (9/1). 

All of those big priced winners have something in common: they were only advised and backed to 1/2 point EW bets. That is another lesson learnt – have at least 1 point on the win side on all horses that I ‘tip’. There is quite a bit more profit sitting there with better staking, without needing to back any more winners. 

***

As discussed since the start of October I have started recording the results more thoroughly. Since the start of that month, and up to 04/11/15 – backing all ‘Tips. Big Race Previews, and Shortlist’ horses to 1 point level stakes (or advised stakes, another 1/2 point bet on a 20/1 winner crept in!!) are now: +22.5 points 

***

So, all in the blog ‘official’ profits (not systems) over the last 12 months are approximately: +100.75 points. There have of course been numerous other winners (and losers) mentioned or highlighted via stats etc.

Depending on your approach to the micro systems (backing all systematically including the ‘Jumps Handicappers’) you could have added anywhere between +25 and +50 points or so to that lot, helped by Venetia Williams’ first ‘official’ winner of the month at 12/1 yesterday. 

***

To Conclude…

This time last year I would have bitten your hand off to have the overall results that I have had. I have made plenty of mistakes, learnt plenty more, and hopefully with the ‘Members Reports’ and the portfolio approach, have found the most entertaining/enjoyable/profitable model moving forward. The odds I play means I back plenty of losers. If you missed the odd winner, or jumped into a trial at a certain point etc you may not recognise some of those figures. As I have said, I care for profit, not winners – albeit seeing too many horses fall out the back of the TV can be demoralising – there have been a few too many of those in truth. 

Hopefully for those of you who follow my ramblings this review gives you some confidence, or not, moving forward. The idea is always to provide something relevant to all types of bettors,(despise the term gambling as it implies a lack of skill in my opinion) with all levels of experience. Whether you use my posts as a pointer to your own bets, like to follow ‘tips’, or a mixture of both, there is hopefully something there for you to get stuck into. 

As always, thoughts, comments, recommendations for improvement, are always welcome! 

***

Happy Punting, 

Josh