As October draws to a close I have had a look to see who we should be following next month and there are a couple of interest. Next week I will do the usual recap of results but it has been a profitable month to date. The Jumps Handicappers have had a slow start but I will be following those all year and may reflect on their results quarterly.
- Handicap Hurdles
- 0 Runs in last 90 days ONLY
- 14/1 or under (guide)
Having looked through the numbers this looks a clear strategy of the Pipe’s. The figures in all other months are 125 bets / 17 wins / 41 places / -30 SP / AE 0.82. It is a fairly small sample I suppose but he has been consistent and all 14 wins have been with different horses which is important. His handicap hurdlers clearly come here fit after a break ready to do business.
Handicap Hurdlers with more than 1 run in 90 days are 50 bets / 4 wins / 8 places / -25 SP. Clearly some come on for a run, or follow up after win, but they are hard to predict.
Handicap Chasers with the same rules are: 36 bets / 6 wins / 12 places / 16% SR / +10 SP / AE 1.09 – the last two seasons the stats are 1/13, 3 places, -8.5 SP. So, they do ok, but again have been harder to find.
HOWEVER his overall stats at Cheltenham in November are decent with all his handicappers (possibly all runners but I will look at that closer to their November meeting) – his Handicap Chasers there are 3/15, 6 places / 20% SR / +19 SP
ODDS – horses over 14/1 are worthy of a second glance – current stats of 1/9, 2 places. That winner was priced at 40/1 SP.
- Handicap Chases
- NOT Only 1 run in last 90 days: (so 0,2,3+ only)
- 16/1 or under
Now, these rules clearly need some thinking out loud as an initial glance would scream ‘Back-Fitting’ – much like when you see a trainer system which says only back in class 1,2 and 4 – no logic not to back in class 3 for example.
Anyway…I think there is a logical case for ignoring her chasers that have had 1 run only in the last 90 days. Firstly the stats- those with 1 run only are: 48 bets / 4 wins / 14 places / 8.33% SR / -23.5 SP / AE 0.46
Those with 2/3/4 runs in last 90 days are: 14 bets / 6 wins / 10 places / +17.5 SP
So, what’s going on with those that have only had 1 run. Well, it could be assumed on the stats that most of her chasers are fit enough to win on their first start after a break and that as such many don’t come on for the run – so there is no reason why they should suddenly improve on their second run after a break. There is logic there. Alternatively there may be a handful that are not race fit and take a few runs to get up to speed. Having looked through those that have won with 2+ runs in 90 days, a couple were inexperienced chasers and their first run after break was their first chase. So, with the younger horses, gaining experience is clearly important, esp in beginners chases etc.
So, this is interesting and worth following for now. It could be an anomaly and I will keep an eye on them but so far those with one 1 run in last 90 days are either not coming on for the or are inexperienced and take a few chase runs to find their feet. Those having their second run after winning after a break are 1/11.
Those over 16/1 are: 0/13, 1 place.
Stats for all other months with same rules: 561 bets / 84 wins / 213 places / 14.97% SR / -156 SP / AE0.83
!!!! – She runs a couple of handicap chasers at Ascot that look like they would have qualified if running on Sunday! So, may be worth a second glance.
M W EASTERBY
- 12/1 or under
A rather simple approach for this one. Whether it is jumps, flat, AW, non handicap/handicap it doesn’t matter for ‘Mr Shrewd’ in this month, when the money is down. The place strike rate is impressive and one of those 2nds last year was a neck, and would have improved figures further. 2013 was below par but that can happen and he looks an exciting addition for this month.
His figures over 12/1 are: 63 bets / 1 win / 6 places / -34 SP. That win was at a big price, but they are hard to find and over time have not been worth following.
The stats for all other times of year: 1586 bets / 223 wins / 14% SR / -199 SP / AE 0.91.
This has been the one month in recent history where you can predict with some certainty that the horses will run well. We shall see if he can repeat the trick again this year.
- 14/1 or under
Another simple approach but so far so good. Again race type, handicap/non handicap, does not appear to matter. Most of the wins have been on the AW at Kempton/Wolvs and his record with 2yos is decent also.
16/1+ are: 0/18, 4 places. Clearly the odd one goes close but again so far they are hard to predict with any level of confidence. Runners in all other months: 1511 bets / 207 wins / 606 places / 13.7% SR / -290 SP / AE 0.82.
So, 4 trainers to have on our side in the next few weeks, in addition to Emma Lavelle and the Jumps Handicappers. If recent years are to go by we can expect an average of around 2 bets per day. One, or maybe two could have a ‘bad’ year but so far, touch wood, their bad years have been manageable. Hopefully these monthly trainers can continue the profitable trend of the last couple of months.
Potential qualifiers will be posted in the daily Members Reports as usual.