Saturday 02/10/15 (UPDATED)

Some Saturday Pointers. I am away visiting friends for the weekend so what is up here by 11am tomorrow will be it as usual. I doubt I will be betting on the French action but will try and watch a few of the races. Hopefully Treve can make history. For now I have had time to have a quick look at tomorrow…

The only ‘big race’ of interest on these shores tomorrow is the 3.45 Ascot. 

I am writing this at 12.41 on Friday and the ante post market is still up, with Paddy Power showing 12s for Buckstay. With 4 places I could not resist an EW bet given I backed him at Ayr when he (predictably) got going late. Unfortunately those in front didn’t come back but with the master of straight course handicaps up in the saddle (if you think Spencer is a crap jockey,well, I don’t know what to say) and with pace to aim at I would hope I get a run for my money. I can’t think he will be anywhere near 12s come the off but we shall see. 

Some trends/stats…

15/17 Top 8 LTO (11/17 Top 6)

17/17 Age 3-6 (0/29, 5 places age 7+)

0/27, 4 places carried 9-9 or more 

17/17 rated 105 or below (0/24, 3 places rated 106+)

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A strict interpretation of those would leave a shortlist of…Jallota / Gabriel’s Lad / Tatlisu / Mister Universe / Outback Traveller / Buckstay…

Of course I have missed out the most important factor – just back all R Fahey runners in big Saturday Handicaps! He has had the Paul Nicholls touch this season on the level 🙂 

These handicaps are bloody difficult at the best of times but even more so at this time of year. I have had 1/2 EW on Buckstay at 12s, 4 places and this will most likely do for me in this race. He is nothing but consistent and has CD form, is still open to progression and will be finishing strong. Spencer may time it to perfection or be slightly out, that is the nature of backing his mounts – but if I was a rich man with many (any!) horses, he would be at the top of my list for a race of this nature. 

Professor is interesting as I had a good look at him LTO as well, ultimately put off by his long absence. But, he finished strongly there to an extent and it will be interesting if he comes on for it. He definitely has the ability for a race of this nature and is interesting. He is well handicapped now and does have some high class big field form back in the day for previous connections. Looks like I have just talked myself into a stab, and PP (are their traders having lunch?!) are a stand out 25s – 1/4 point EW on that one I think. 

Good Luck with wherever the pin lands! They are not ‘official’ tips as I haven’t really looked through the others in much depth, which is never wise and I will probably get what I deserve. 

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Shortlist..

3.50 Fontwell – Town Mouse catches the eye at 6/1 for Trainer/jockey who are 4/11, 5 places to date when teaming up in handicap chases at the track. This horse is still young and looked to like the extra distance last time and this step up again could well suit. He is consistent without winning too often, but this trip could bring out the improvement and he is a course winner. A lot of these could well need their seasonal reappearances, although Comonginger has a decent record fresh and could progress this year into a decent chaser. But, he is probably the right price. 6/1 felt a shade too big for TM. 

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OCTOBER TRAINERS

3.45 Ascot (16/1 or under) – Intransigent / Make It Up

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Have a great weekend. 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. I really am surprised you have shortlisted Town Mouse.I have purchased the trainer tracks and his trainer doesnt feature at all at Fontwell for handicap chases.However there is a trainer and jockey combo in that race that has a 50% record and ran really well last year after a lay off. Surely he should be the short listed horse and not the one you have put up.
    I noticed you have put horses which have featured in trainer tracks so its not a case of keeping people in the dark.Just surprised by the short listed selection.

    1. Hi Roddo – thanks for comment. The aim with the shortlist is to try and put up horses I have also looked at and made a consideration as to their form/profile chance.
      Based on the stats in the guide you could look at Venetian Lad and Midnight Lira. Venetia Lad – he is getting on a bit now and I was put off by the break- he is 0/2, 0 places in chases returning after a 121+ break. He also has class to prove, all wins C4 <6k to date - so does Town Mouse, but he is open to more improvement.
      Town Mouse - the trainer/jockey combo are in the guide under handicap chases, that is where that stat comes from - yes the trainer is not in the main list.
      Midnight Lira also has fitness to prove and is now on a career high mark over fences. Trainer also 0/10, 0 places in last 30 days. None of those points mean they cant win or are not necessarily value but out of the three i went for Town Mouse - it may transpire my judgement is wrong on that one, we shall see. You may come to a different conclusion. That is what is great about this game!
      Finally, with the guide etc there is no promise that I will put up the best bets or stats etc for the time being.

  2. Points well made Josh.I missed the Town Mouse trainer/Jockey angle. This race looks a bit too trappy for me now.Thanks for your help.

    1. No probs. Yes can see why you may want to leave alone. In truth if they had all had a recent run I wouldn’t be touching it,but hopefully a few of them are not fully tuned up! I could be wrong though.

  3. Out of interest how many people got12/1 for buckstay .I accesed the message about 1230pm and best price was 7/1 with all major firms .Thanks

    1. Yea Michael that result won’t be going down in ‘official’ results, it wasn’t a preview etc – I was just lucky in truth, lucky I looked at race that early because I was off out and lucky that PPs traders appears to be having a lunch break – everyone else was 7s or so when they were still 12s on AP market and clearly not long after I posted it probably all changed. 6s/7s still beat the market mind. I should clearly learn to look at some of these races a bit earlier in future maybe.

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