Some Saturday Pointers. I am away visiting friends for the weekend so what is up here by 11am tomorrow will be it as usual. I doubt I will be betting on the French action but will try and watch a few of the races. Hopefully Treve can make history. For now I have had time to have a quick look at tomorrow…
The only ‘big race’ of interest on these shores tomorrow is the 3.45 Ascot.
I am writing this at 12.41 on Friday and the ante post market is still up, with Paddy Power showing 12s for Buckstay. With 4 places I could not resist an EW bet given I backed him at Ayr when he (predictably) got going late. Unfortunately those in front didn’t come back but with the master of straight course handicaps up in the saddle (if you think Spencer is a crap jockey,well, I don’t know what to say) and with pace to aim at I would hope I get a run for my money. I can’t think he will be anywhere near 12s come the off but we shall see.
15/17 Top 8 LTO (11/17 Top 6)
17/17 Age 3-6 (0/29, 5 places age 7+)
0/27, 4 places carried 9-9 or more
17/17 rated 105 or below (0/24, 3 places rated 106+)
A strict interpretation of those would leave a shortlist of…Jallota / Gabriel’s Lad / Tatlisu / Mister Universe / Outback Traveller / Buckstay…
Of course I have missed out the most important factor – just back all R Fahey runners in big Saturday Handicaps! He has had the Paul Nicholls touch this season on the level 🙂
These handicaps are bloody difficult at the best of times but even more so at this time of year. I have had 1/2 EW on Buckstay at 12s, 4 places and this will most likely do for me in this race. He is nothing but consistent and has CD form, is still open to progression and will be finishing strong. Spencer may time it to perfection or be slightly out, that is the nature of backing his mounts – but if I was a rich man with many (any!) horses, he would be at the top of my list for a race of this nature.
Professor is interesting as I had a good look at him LTO as well, ultimately put off by his long absence. But, he finished strongly there to an extent and it will be interesting if he comes on for it. He definitely has the ability for a race of this nature and is interesting. He is well handicapped now and does have some high class big field form back in the day for previous connections. Looks like I have just talked myself into a stab, and PP (are their traders having lunch?!) are a stand out 25s – 1/4 point EW on that one I think.
Good Luck with wherever the pin lands! They are not ‘official’ tips as I haven’t really looked through the others in much depth, which is never wise and I will probably get what I deserve.
3.50 Fontwell – Town Mouse catches the eye at 6/1 for Trainer/jockey who are 4/11, 5 places to date when teaming up in handicap chases at the track. This horse is still young and looked to like the extra distance last time and this step up again could well suit. He is consistent without winning too often, but this trip could bring out the improvement and he is a course winner. A lot of these could well need their seasonal reappearances, although Comonginger has a decent record fresh and could progress this year into a decent chaser. But, he is probably the right price. 6/1 felt a shade too big for TM.
3.45 Ascot (16/1 or under) – Intransigent / Make It Up
Have a great weekend.