Tip/Shortlist of the Day 01/10/15

October generally isn’t a month to try and recapture tipping form so it will very much be sticking to the micro angles and some strong stats where they exists. The flat is arguably at its most challenging with changing ground and horses that have had long campaigns. The jumps is a conundrum – you have to weigh up fit ‘summer jumpers’ that may be in form against those ‘winter horses’ returning after lengthy breaks. Knowing who is fit, who has improved etc is a challenge and it can pay to keep more of a watching brief. But, there should be no strict rules, and hopefully I find a few winners to help us tick over as well as a few trends races to get stuck into. 

I haven’t been keeping detailed results of the ‘shortlist’ horses but will do from now on. They need to be profitable long term. My aim with that is to have 2-4 stats based horses a day, where you/I should feel comfortable betting, without much further analysis. Of course, you are always free to use the stats as you wish. If I haven’t got at least 1/2 point on a horse it won’t be in the shortlist. I will record results to 1 point win bets at advised odds and go from there. October is probably not the best month to start but we shall see! 

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Shortlist 

3.05 Clonmel – McNamara is 4/16, 6 places with handicap hurdlers at the track, against his overall record here of 6/50 that sis quite good. This is his third handicap hurdle start but he has yet to race in these conditions, which makes me think he is worth chancing at 14/1. His flat form when in UK on AW/Turf would suggest he needs firm ground. 3m could have been too far LTO. He has not raced over 2m4f on good ground yet, and that is the way in, along with the stats. He could simply not be very good but it would be too early to write him off. 

4.00 Bangor – Lost Legend 9/1. Jonjo/Mclernon are 4/13, 6 places in handicap chases here. This is a more speculative bet but the odds do allow it in my opinion. I say that because he has the following handicap chase stats…20-20.5f: 4/7, 5 places (0/10, 1 place over further) ; 1-7 runners: 3/6, 4 places (1/11, 2 places 8+). Arguably he is best on flat tracks (4/10, 5 places) whereas Bangor is classed in HRB with slight undulations (0/5, 1 place). He comes up against some more progressive rivals in here who could be tough to beat, but they are priced up accordingly. He is a previous C2 winner and is below his last winning mark. Essentially there are reasons why a better performance would not be out of the question, and as such 9/1 looked ok to me. Is he the most likely winner on recent form, no. Is 9/1 too big against his chance – on my judgement  against his profile, I think so.But, we shall see. He is one of those where a win or a tailed off would not surprise, and with those types you generally want a decent price. 

5.45 Chelmsford – Hugo Palmer is 5/13, 8 places with handicap debutants in the last year and runs Gaspirali here, still 12s in places. This horse has run one good maiden and has since been gelded. He steps up in trip and goes on the AW for the first time. There is some american blood in him and there looks to be stamina as well – so this step up by 2f and switch to AW could well help. It is a 2yo nursery but 12s allows an EW bet for me. 

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October Trainers 

NO potential qualifiers today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. hi josh, bit surprised nigel twiston davies not on october trainers list. apparently has made +256 level BFSP since 2006 in october

    1. Hi Malcolm…very valid question which ‘forced’ me to dive back into HRB and see what I missed..there is a new blog post up explaining all. His handicap stats are not worth following – not systematically anyway, but his non-handicap hurdlers are a different story. Cheers for the prompt, you may have just helped us all make an extra 10+ points we may not otherwise have done over the coming 4 weeks – if all goes to plan.

    1. Cheers Mark, yes he did that rather well! They were his ideal chase conditions so glad he showed up. Shortlist, and my wallet, needed it in truth!

      1. Iv’e been reading the e mails from you all the time and find them very informative and basically decided that today, new month etc, I would start to pay more attention and add the thoughts on here to my own betting ideas and see where it takes me so a good start in what is normally a problematic month for betting.

        1. Yes it has been a bit of a learning curve with the daily posts etc, but getting there. A shorter, more considered shortlist is the way forward, and then need to get my ‘tipping’ hat back on. Will find some more chase profiles with any luck + micro systems hopefully combined they all do well long term. We shall see!

    1. Cheers Brian, yes all three ran well really but would take a 9/1 winner and 12/1 EW 2nd every day of the week. Gasper was trapped for a time travelling well but that happens there, not much jock could do and as you say winner got first run. His turn isnt far away and I reckon they will find a race for that irish hurdler.

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