When you are backing and ‘advising’ others to part with money on horses that fall out the back of the tv it is rather disheartening. Yesterday’s two runners knocked me back slightly as I expected so much more. This is a game of the mind as much as anything else and, while it is always important to reflect on what you are doing, if you are confident in your approach, you have to keep going. There is no room for self pity here, the only response has to be to work harder and be more thorough, confident that over time the profits will grow.
While I may have struggled to ‘tip’ winners recently the blog, and the ‘Tip of the Day’ posts, have been finding winners. Having had a look back through since the start of August the ‘Shortlist’ horses are approximately 46 bets / 11 wins / +40.7 points (1 point level stakes win only). That does include two winners at 33/1 and yesterday’s 20/1 winner. Over time I have tried to narrow the shortlist down to horses/races I have looked at and have some level of confidence in. This ‘stats’ based approach to identifying value bets does work, and it will be interesting to track how they continue to do moving forward. Clearly I need to start ‘tipping’ a few more but I know many of you have used the info to back plenty of those winners, so there continues to be value in my ramblings.
In truth I can’t wait for the jumps season to get going now, and I am bit mentally frazzled to dive into the sprint handicaps and the G1 sprint today. I am not in the right frame of mind to ‘tip’ today, so hopefully you can use what follows below to help in some way…(what to avoid maybe 🙂 )
10/12 had won 4 or more times
9/12 rated 90+
9/12 raced at Haydock before
9/12 previous winner over 5f
9/12 9 or more runs his season
(stats taken from ‘Saturday TV Trends post over at Geegeez – always a useful and time saving article)
On my calculation Silvanus and Midlander are the only one to tick all of those boxes. The ‘4 or more wins’ stat knocks out quite a few. Distant Past (interesting that Spencer heads to Ascot again?) falls down on ‘seasons runs stat, and so does Blithe Spirit, Desert Ace, Bfifty2 and My Name is Rio – but they all tick every other box. Indescribable has yet to run at Haydock, but ticks all the rest and Johnston’s horses can always bounce back from nowhere.
This looks a right conundrum as you would expect. I may just stick to the stats and back the two ‘qualifiers’ for 1/4 points/interest but hopefully the stats are upheld and one of them wins.
The Betfred Sprint Cup looks super competitive as you would expect and you could make a case for quite a few in here. I have no strong views on the race and will enjoy watching it. I think I have a ‘free’ £5 bet from Bet365 that I may put on Pearl Secret at a big price – based on nothing more that he caught my eye at Ascot a couple of runs ago and this is only his 3rd run at the trip, yet to conclusively prove he doesnt stay. Good Luck with wherever your pin lands 🙂
The races at Ascot look near enough impossible to my eye.
In the 2.50 Stuart Williams really did fancy Suzi’z Connoisseur last time out at Goodwood. This horse can front run, with the blinkers back on, and Fanning booked, I do wonder if they will race handy and try and see them all off. He may not like Goodwood and his last race here was solid form.
I have a feeling Ryan may win a decent enough pot with Al Khan at some point but I think he needs it firmer, but Spencer rides and he has been on fire the last few days.
Hawkeyethenoo is the other that caught my eye when having a quick flick. Mainly as I remember backing him EW for 1/4 points at 50/1 when he got 3rd here earlier in the season for a previewed race. There isn’t loads of pace on paper in here which would be a slight concern but he may not be far away.
The 4.35 looks challenging as well. Highland Acclaim, Dawns Early Light, Squats and Cartmell Cleave caught my eye, but that is only a cursory glance.
Tip Of the Day
No tip today but some considered stats of interest…
-Sir Mark Prescott doesnt mess around at Haydock. 12/31, 22 places with handicappers here. With Luke Morris – 6/13, 9 places. High Secret (2.35) and Aleator (5.30) have to be of some interest.
-S Dow is 11/47, 20 places with handicappers at Wolverhampton and you could do a lot worse than just back them blind, +71 points since 2009. He runs Autumn Tonic in the 8.30 at a decent price. He is also 2/4 with this jockey here. This is the horses first run at the track which I found interesting. On paper it is a very weak race, with every horse having something to prove. I have had an EW nibble.
-Sir Michael Stoute is 3/8, 4 places with hadicappers at Thirsk and sends one up there today…Mukhayyam in the 3.20. He has won here before and it is possible to excuse quite a few of his runs and he has been highly tried. He drops back in class here, albeit it looks a competitive little race.
-Barron and Gibbons are 15/57, 27 places at Wolvs, +55 points since 2009. They run War Girl who makes her handicap debut in the 6pm.- Barron has a respectable enough 15% record with handicap debutants. Not much form to go on, but interesting, and she is very well bred.
-Finally at Stratford a couple of Pace horses that caught the eye. 3.50 Kie – runs for the fourth time for Pipe. This out and out front runner has been a decent chaser in the past. The concern is the trip – he is a 20f horse at best I think – but he is getting older, and if he gets an easy lead it is possible he could just see it out. 11s is tempting, albeit I would not be shocked if he faded in the straight. Zama Zama will also make a good fist of it from the front in the 5.00. His form of his last win here has worked out well and he should run his race.
-2.05 Stratford – Drummond (25/1 or under)
-2.50 Asct – Fiftyshadesofgrey (8/1 or under) / Suzis Connoisseur (16/1 or under)
-3.10 Hayd – Harry Hurricane (8/1 0r under)
-4.35 Asct – Muir Lodge (8/1 or under)
-5.25 Thirsk – Kashmir Peak (8/1 or under)
-5.30 Wolv 0 Mr Soprano (16/1 or under)
-5.45 Kempt – Mezzotint (16/1 or under)
-6.00 Wolv – Ben Muir (16/1 or under)
-9.00 Wolv – Monna Valley (16/1 or under)
Good Luck with your Saturday wagers.