Come the end of August I will have a look back through and see how the August trainers performed this year. As I write they are approx 9/41, +16 points BFSP. Dore is 1/5 +12 ISP, Makin 0/7, -7 ISP, Gosden 1/7, -4 SP , and Wall 7/22, +10 ISP. So, they have done ok, with a few more days to go.
Looking ahead to September…
In no particular order…
General Rules: runners in handicaps, running in September…
S C Williams
- Handicaps (both AW+Flat)
- 16/1 or under
Stuart Williams has had a solid record in September for some time now and I suspect at earlier/morning prices would have been profitable in every year. He consistently outperforms market expectations. His record with handicappers on the AW is ok in January and February and I will look at those nearer the time. However, his overall stats from March-August: 635 bets / 74 wins / 11% SR / -139 SP . His stats also then drop off from Oct,Nov,Dec.
September appears to be a month he targets, or where his runners are worth keeping onside at any rate and it will be interesting to see how they get on this year.
B J Llewellyn
- Handicaps (all codes)
- 25/1 or under
A trainer that promises to provide a bit of excitement in the next month. His September stats are much better than other months and to the eye it looks like a deliberate strategy. Clearly 2013 was a bit of a write off – maybe there were issues with the yard, but if you ignore that year they are quite impressive. He is profitable with runners 14/1 or under but he does have a habit of firing in big priced winners.
We can improve the stats further by focusing on those runners aged 5-7. With 4yo’s he is 1/12, and with older horses 8+ he is 3/26, 10 places. Focusing on 5-7 yos would leave…
These 12 winners are from 9 different horses and are predominantly on the flat. Of course we are dealing with small sample sizes here so caution is always advised but with these type of trainer angles that is the nature of the beast. Hopefully an exciting month ahead. (+50 points 14/1 or under)
- Handicaps – Flat/AW (very few runners) + Handicap Hurdles only
- 20/1 or under
Again relatively small numbers but they are certainly worth keeping onside. This month stands out from his overall record and is another who likes the odd big priced winner. His record above 20/1 is 0/9, 1 place to date. Clearly he has a ‘bad’ year every now and then but they haven’t been too expensive to date. He is 1/12, 4 places with his chasers to date, so it will be interesting to see how they go this year. He generally does better with his hurdlers.
J J Quinn
- Handicaps (yet to have a jumps runner)
- Age 3-6 Only
- Race Type, Age restriction: 3yo+ races only
- 8/1 or under
Market support appears to be important with this yard, a record of 1/32, 4 places above 8/1 with such runners. If i remove the age related rules the record is 75 bets / 20 wins / 37 places / +30 SP. He is 0/13, 5 places in 2yo only races – places suggest the winners may not be too far away and that could just be bad luck. 3yo only and 4+ are 1/14, 6 places. With horses aged 7+ he is 0/12, 4 places.
It will be interesting how all of the above get on this season but he is clearly good at placing his younger more unexposed flat runners in races open to 3yos and older.
- Handicaps – Flat Turf only
- 8/1 or under
Another where market support appears to be important – 1/37, 4 places above 8/1. Baker is solid enough in other months but this is the only one with a SR above 25% and a profit above 15 points. The place strike rate is also higher as is the AE, with the best other month being 1.12. Again we are dealing with small numbers so caution is advised but he has been pretty consistent and should be another to keep a close eye on.
I will post all potential/qualifiers in the ‘Tip of the Day’ posts, to use as you please.