Come the end of August I will have a look back through and see how the August trainers performed this year. As I write they are approx 9/41, +16 points BFSP. Dore is 1/5 +12 ISP, Makin 0/7, -7 ISP, Gosden 1/7, -4 SP , and Wall 7/22, +10 ISP. So, they have done ok, with a few more days to go.
Looking ahead to September…
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In no particular order…
General Rules: runners in handicaps, running in September…
S C Williams
- Handicaps (both AW+Flat)
- 16/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 103 | 28 | 27.18 | 64.59 | 46 | 44.66 | 62.71 | 85.38 | 20.63 | 1.53 |
| 2014 | 26 | 5 | 19.23 | 6 | 9 | 34.62 | 23.08 | 9.75 | -5.45 | 1.36 |
| 2013 | 13 | 4 | 30.77 | 17 | 7 | 53.85 | 130.77 | 27.55 | 14.5 | 2.26 |
| 2012 | 18 | 5 | 27.78 | -2.37 | 8 | 44.44 | -13.17 | -1.4 | -3.78 | 1.25 |
| 2011 | 21 | 6 | 28.57 | 21.25 | 9 | 42.86 | 101.19 | 25.29 | 6.2 | 1.67 |
| 2010 | 25 | 8 | 32 | 22.71 | 13 | 52 | 90.84 | 24.19 | 9.15 | 1.53 |
Stuart Williams has had a solid record in September for some time now and I suspect at earlier/morning prices would have been profitable in every year. He consistently outperforms market expectations. His record with handicappers on the AW is ok in January and February and I will look at those nearer the time. However, his overall stats from March-August: 635 bets / 74 wins / 11% SR / -139 SP . His stats also then drop off from Oct,Nov,Dec.
September appears to be a month he targets, or where his runners are worth keeping onside at any rate and it will be interesting to see how they get on this year.
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B J Llewellyn
- Handicaps (all codes)
- 25/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 78 | 16 | 20.51 | 93.38 | 34 | 43.59 | 119.72 | 126.35 | 37.49 | 1.72 |
| 2014 | 13 | 3 | 23.08 | 20 | 6 | 46.15 | 153.85 | 24.1 | 11.06 | 2.24 |
| 2013 | 13 | 0 | 0 | -13 | 4 | 30.77 | -100 | -13 | 3.66 | 0 |
| 2012 | 23 | 6 | 26.09 | 48.88 | 12 | 52.17 | 212.52 | 69.77 | 17.23 | 1.79 |
| 2011 | 18 | 5 | 27.78 | 34 | 8 | 44.44 | 188.89 | 40.49 | 5.51 | 2.44 |
| 2010 | 11 | 2 | 18.18 | 3.5 | 4 | 36.36 | 31.82 | 4.98 | 0.02 | 1.55 |
A trainer that promises to provide a bit of excitement in the next month. His September stats are much better than other months and to the eye it looks like a deliberate strategy. Clearly 2013 was a bit of a write off – maybe there were issues with the yard, but if you ignore that year they are quite impressive. He is profitable with runners 14/1 or under but he does have a habit of firing in big priced winners.
We can improve the stats further by focusing on those runners aged 5-7. With 4yo’s he is 1/12, and with older horses 8+ he is 3/26, 10 places. Focusing on 5-7 yos would leave…
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 40 | 12 | 30 | 104.25 | 18 | 45 | 260.63 | 133.05 | 25.94 | 2.52 |
| 2014 | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 25 | 5 | 62.5 | 312.5 | 29.1 | 12.87 | 3.7 |
| 2013 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| 2012 | 14 | 5 | 35.71 | 55.25 | 7 | 50 | 394.64 | 76.08 | 12.82 | 2.36 |
| 2011 | 9 | 4 | 44.44 | 33 | 5 | 55.56 | 366.67 | 36.88 | 4.92 | 3.77 |
| 2010 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 1 | 16.67 | -100 | -6 | -1.68 | 0 |
These 12 winners are from 9 different horses and are predominantly on the flat. Of course we are dealing with small sample sizes here so caution is always advised but with these type of trainer angles that is the nature of the beast. Hopefully an exciting month ahead. (+50 points 14/1 or under)
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C Gordon
- Handicaps – Flat/AW (very few runners) + Handicap Hurdles only
- 20/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 23 | 9 | 39.13 | 78 | 12 | 52.17 | 339.13 | 99.6 | 17.24 | 3.26 |
| 2014 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| 2013 | 6 | 4 | 66.67 | 43.5 | 4 | 66.67 | 725 | 53.01 | 9.62 | 5.33 |
| 2012 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 24 | 5 | 83.33 | 400 | 29.31 | 8.78 | 3.41 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -0.5 | 2 | 40 | -10 | -0.01 | -0.26 | 1.45 |
| 2010 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 14 | 1 | 33.33 | 466.67 | 20.29 | 2.11 | 4.35 |
Again relatively small numbers but they are certainly worth keeping onside. This month stands out from his overall record and is another who likes the odd big priced winner. His record above 20/1 is 0/9, 1 place to date. Clearly he has a ‘bad’ year every now and then but they haven’t been too expensive to date. He is 1/12, 4 places with his chasers to date, so it will be interesting to see how they go this year. He generally does better with his hurdlers.
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J J Quinn
- Handicaps (yet to have a jumps runner)
- Age 3-6 Only
- Race Type, Age restriction: 3yo+ races only
- 8/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 37 | 19 | 51.35 | 63.75 | 22 | 59.46 | 172.3 | 73.34 | 11.09 | 2.66 |
| 2014 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 16 | 4 | 66.67 | 266.67 | 18.76 | 3.94 | 2.52 |
| 2013 | 10 | 6 | 60 | 19.25 | 7 | 70 | 192.5 | 20.94 | 5.19 | 3.05 |
| 2012 | 4 | 3 | 75 | 7.5 | 3 | 75 | 187.5 | 8.02 | 1.23 | 2.91 |
| 2011 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 6 | 1 | 33.33 | 200 | 8.73 | 0.3 | 2.78 |
| 2010 | 14 | 6 | 42.86 | 15 | 7 | 50 | 107.14 | 16.91 | 0.43 | 2.31 |
Market support appears to be important with this yard, a record of 1/32, 4 places above 8/1 with such runners. If i remove the age related rules the record is 75 bets / 20 wins / 37 places / +30 SP. He is 0/13, 5 places in 2yo only races – places suggest the winners may not be too far away and that could just be bad luck. 3yo only and 4+ are 1/14, 6 places. With horses aged 7+ he is 0/12, 4 places.
It will be interesting how all of the above get on this season but he is clearly good at placing his younger more unexposed flat runners in races open to 3yos and older.
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George Baker
- Handicaps – Flat Turf only
- 8/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 42 | 13 | 30.95 | 32.19 | 23 | 54.76 | 76.64 | 38.22 | 10.53 | 1.49 |
| 2014 | 15 | 4 | 26.67 | 12.5 | 7 | 46.67 | 83.33 | 14.58 | 2.18 | 1.33 |
| 2013 | 9 | 3 | 33.33 | 9.25 | 5 | 55.56 | 102.78 | 11.1 | 3.11 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 3 | 60 | -100 | -5 | 1.43 | 0 |
| 2011 | 9 | 4 | 44.44 | 8.69 | 6 | 66.67 | 96.56 | 10.47 | 3.74 | 1.89 |
| 2010 | 4 | 2 | 50 | 6.75 | 2 | 50 | 168.75 | 7.07 | 0.07 | 2.22 |
Another where market support appears to be important – 1/37, 4 places above 8/1. Baker is solid enough in other months but this is the only one with a SR above 25% and a profit above 15 points. The place strike rate is also higher as is the AE, with the best other month being 1.12. Again we are dealing with small numbers so caution is advised but he has been pretty consistent and should be another to keep a close eye on.
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I will post all potential/qualifiers in the ‘Tip of the Day’ posts, to use as you please.
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Josh
18 Responses
Really great article josh love these trainer stats month by month thank you,
Cheers Steve, my pleasure. Hopefully they help find us all a few nice winners from a small number of bets.
I find these trainer stats well worth following.
thanks Jack. Hopefully a decent month ahead!
love your stats use them with my final picks
Thanks John- good to hear you use them with your own analysis etc.
Thank you for doing this Josh, fair play to you…
No problem Les, every little helps I find, and I am a fan of the portfolio approach and having different ways in. Hopefully they throw up a few decent priced winners but we shall see.
Great stuff Josh! I have a couple of quick questions to ask with regaurds to gosden and wall. I was playing about with them both on hrb and removed tracks where they hadn’t won and had a poor place strike rate. With cf wall it showed good returns aug-sept and with gosden it showed good returns aug-oct. Really what i’m asking is what do you think about this? I will of course just be watching the bets over thoses extra periods with and eye to back them next year. Depending on how they perform that is lol
That is a very good approach James, You are definately on the right track…..
Hi James…trainers are creatures of habit and certainly looking at tracks they do well at is always a useful way in, and a decent way to filter further. The question then is just stats and how robust they are. Not an exact science and when looking at ‘monthly trainers’ the stats are usually quite small samples and breaking down by track can be pointless,but certainly over a longer period with more bets, as you describe, I certainly wouldn’t put you off. And also looking at their monthly track record in relation to their overall track record. Track them and see how they get on.
Thanks for the feed back! Hopefully could be on for a good few wins, i’l let you know how it pans out 🙂
Very good indeed ..these are type of stats I like and will use in my betting ..thanks much appreciated ..
I didn’t use the Peter Makin stats for August …hes been having a terrible season shame as its his last I think ….. hes always been a good and pretty consistant trainer had a few winners from his stats in the past …I look at trainers from the beginning of the season and as the season progresses try to get an idea how its going to continue ..don’t tend to bet on trainers who are obviously having a bad one …
Thanks Harold, yes i agree about Makin, flagging his poor form a few times when posting qualifiers and it is safe to say he has had a poor few weeks -yes it is his last season, maybe he was just winding down!
As per our previous discussion Josh – a very impressive and PROFESSIONAL(!!!!!) piece of work. All the best. Richard
The 1st day of Sept trainers, and the first winner in Pettochside ( C Gordon ) 4.55 G. Well done Josh and thank you.
Well done Allan, yes never looked in doubt to my eyes watching it! Have just got back from a days travelling so couldn’t post them up but glad you were tracking them and got on! There are a couple tomorrow and I will post these in tip of day in morning.