King George Stakes
Out Do 1.5 points win (15/2 Bet365/PP)
Move in Time 1 point win (13/2 general)
Moviestar 0.5 point win (13/2 general)
I think this race is between one of those 3 above, with Muthmir and Cotai Glory giving them most to do and Line of Reason may not be too far away. According to 18 years of history, one of those will be winning this…
-18/18 went off 12/1 or shorter (0/141, 7 places were 14/1+)
-12/18 Drawn 1-8, double that of those drawn 9+ from a similar number of runners.
Since becoming a G2 in 2010…
-0/15, 1 place ran at Ascot LTO, 1/3 Chester, 2/8, 5 places Newmarket (July), 0/17 Sandown, 2/20, 5 places York
-3/22, 6 places ran in Listed race LTO.
For me there is not much point in looking beyond the top 6 in the market here. Unfancied horses simply do not run that well in this and while one will go in at some point they appear to be near impossible to pick out.
Normally I would have just two in a race like this maximum but having scratched my head for some time I thought a ‘saver’ for a small profit on Moviestar was better than not picking him at all.
OMeara is double handed here and they both look to have a decent chance, and we are covering different race scenarios. Firstly Move in Time – he is clearly progressive for this trainer 4/13, and he won a G1 in France, somewhat surprisingly. This looks to have been the target with a prep at Hamilton where he quickened away nicely, albeit from mediocre opposition. He is drawn low here which I like and he likes to track the pace, of which there is plenty in this race. Hopefully he follows Justineo and pounces late. Clearly Tudhope had the choice here but given how progressive Out Do is I am not surprised with his choice and I dont necessarily thing it is a negative. Either way it is a decent enough price for a horse that usually runs his race.
Out Do is fast improving, especially over this trip. He will be help up and as such will need plenty of luck. My instinct says the line may come too quickly and something that gets first run may pip him (hopefully his stablemate if that is the case) but on the other hand he won s shade cosily last time out having found plenty of trouble and having to go right across the track. If he gets the gaps and Tudhope can get him in the clear early enough he could win this well. There is plenty of pace and again 15/2 is fair enough. I did wonder if this may happen to quickly on this track but he seems to be travelling very well over 5f now and he should run his race. He also had quite a few of these behind him LTO and I see no reason why they should overturn the form – barring a troubled passage of course. (he beat Kingsgate Native, Take Cover, Cotai Glory, Justice Day, Line of Reason LTO)
Moviesta – won this race a couple of years ago and no horse has yet to win it twice but I do not know how many have tried in truth. Mulrennan could have ridden Line of Reason, I think he would have had a choice given he has ridden both horses plenty of times, and he looks to be coming to the boil for his new trainer – and we know he can train sprinters. Again he is drawn on the right side historically, and there is pace low. We know he likes the course and distance and he didnt fail by much last year in this race either.
Muthmir is just a bit disappointing and is hard to work out. If he runs the best race of his life, and improves again, he will go very close. He should have been beating a horse like GoldDream in a G1 at Ascot and he was just a bit too poor LTO. He can pull hard, and although he has his best trip here, and a strong pace to aim at, there are doubts as to what kind of performance we get. He needs to step up again, and as such I was happy to leave him. I hope he returns to form, but not too much!
Cotai Glory – well this is about how much he comes on from his return at York after 300+ days off. Firstly there is a chance that he bounces (second run after a long break) and runs flat. Also, to run that well, suggests to me that he was fairly fit and I wonder how much they left to work on. If it was a lot, then he will go very close. He does like to be up with the pace and that could do for him if he gets into a battle. Also, OutDo would have won a shade more easily with a clearer run LTO and there is every chance he is also still improving. They may not finish very far away from each other, and it may come down to luck, but again I am just about happy to take him on. If you can overlook a few of those issues above, he should be in the right place and I couldn’t put you off him too much.
The rest..well the market suggests they are struggling and a few of them should cut each others throats hopefully, and set it up for a horse tracking the pace. Justineo (drawn 2) Take Cover (9), Cotai Glory to some extent (11), Caspian Prince (10), Goken (5) all like to get on with it but bar Cotai dont look like they have the form, or current wellbeing, to stay there all the way. The low side could be ahead come half way. If any horse leads all the way here, or is right up with the pace and stays there they will deserve following as that would be some run, given the pace on paper. (some of the jockeys may decide to change tactics of course, as they will know there is plenty of potential pace)
So, we should get a run for out money from all 3. Hopefully OutDo finds the gaps – with a guaranteed clear run I think he is the most likely winner, hence the 1.5 points, I just hope the line doesnt come too soon, and Tudhope can keep him fairly close to the pace. The other two should give us some fun also.
If it all goes wrong we will still have +6 points from the week to play with tomorrow.
I am leaving the 8f handicap alone as it looks like a puzzle I don’t have time to even attempt to solve.