Tip of the Day 29/07/15

A decent day all round yesterday with the blog making nearly 15 points and the Tip of the Day adding another 4.5 points to the pot. On the Bridge won as I hoped he would if the market leaders failed and there were valid reasons to take them both on. If Scott can find another weak Worcester handicap hurdle he should have a good chance of following up. 

Running Total: 19 bets / 5 wins / 5 seconds / +15 points 

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29/07/15

8.50 Leicester 

Big McIntosh 8/1 (BV/PP/Betfair Sports) 1 point win 

It says something about the dearth of quality today away from Goodwood that I am playing in a 3yo only Class 6 handicap but I think there is enough to go on and 8/1 just looks a ridiculous price to my eyes, in the context of this race…

The Way In…

John Ryan doesn’t send many handicappers to Leicester but he doesn’t mess around when he does, 3/6, 3 places. He is also 2/2 when teaming up with this young jockey here. 

The race set-up also interests me as the horse is an out and out front runner and it looks like he should be able to get an easy lead here. There will be no excuses on that front. 

The horse…

Well he won really well on his penultimate start in a 3yo handicap, leading all the way from the front over 9f. Back up in trip in an all age handicap it looked like he failed to stay there. His stamina over 9f will help here with this stiff finish and he should give it a good go from the front. 

The main concern is the ground, which is an unknown. Because he has yet to prove he wont handle it I thought 8s was worth chancing. There is also no rain forecast from what i can see and being later this evening there is every chance the ground dries out a little bit, which will help. His sire’s off spring do win on this ground. 

The opposition…

This is an awful race with a lot of ‘exposed’ 3yos who look awful, they are a really poor bunch. Hold Firm is the only other winner in the field, but he generally likes placing and I dont like repeat place offenders in general. (BM’s speed figure is over twice that of this horse) He needs a bit more here. All of the others have tried class 5 and class 6 a few times between them in all race types and have combined win stats of 0/39! There combined distance stats, over 8-9f, are 0/16. 

That just leaves the unexposed handicap debutants and it is no surprise that they are both near the top of the market. James Fanshawe has a good overall record with such runners, a near 20% SR in the last 5 years (only 2/22 this year so far) however he is 0/6, 0 places with these runners at this track since 2009 – suggesting he doesnt send his good ones here. Clearly he is a danger, and a win would not be a shock, but there are reasons to take him on. Ainslie hasnt done much and has had some time off (a wind op maybe) and is clearly open to improvement now handicapping but he isnt stepping up in trip etc or doing anything different. His trainer is also 0/35 in the last 30 days, although 25% have placed. Reasons to take him on I think. 

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Clearly the usual caveats with such poor races apply, where nothing is ever a total surprise. But, provided he handles the ground, we will get a very good run for our money from the front and given that every other horse has plenty to prove i thought 8s was rather generous. 

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The shortlist 

-Mr Chammings is 4/8, 6 places in the last 30 days so his Double Czech is of interest in the 5.55. While I expect a decent run on more suitable ground the race looked a bit too competitive for me to get a grip on- but he could try and make all as well, and has form at Chepstow so this stiff finish should be fine. 

-Johnston and De Sousa are 5/11, 7 places in the last 30 days and are also 2/6, 3 places when teaming up in Redcar Handicaps. They run Oregon Gift in the 4.05. Those stats are probably enough to ignore the form of the horse at 6/1, but i struggled to make the case for what has been a disappointing type so far, hence why he wasnt a main selection. However this is only his second try at the trip and a strongly run race may help, his speed rating is also good in the context of the opposition. I may have 1/2 point on to find out although as yet he doesnt like winning. 

-Finally Mic Channon is 3/10, 6 places with his 2yo debutants at Leicester. He runs Sixties Pilgrim in the 6.15. I will be interested how she goes, and if she is supported in the market. It looks a weak maiden but there is plenty of guessing going on in races such as this! 

Good Luck