Well Llyrical ran as if his jockey had read my post beforehand 🙂 Tracking the horse he beat last time, and travelling strongly, he was always in the right place. The jockey timed it perfectly (of course had he lost by a head it would have been an awful ride!!) I will need to watch it again but I am not convinced he was all out there at the end and while I doubt I will put him up again here, depending on what the handicapper does, I may not be able to resist a small bet next time to see if he can get the 3 timer up.
Anyway, depending on who you bet with there was a R4 deduction. I had bet with Skybet on this occasion and they deducted 10p/£1 – leaving me +4.5 points on the race.
Running Total: 7 bets / 2 wins / 2 seconds / +5.5 points (to advised odds, BOG)
Air of Mystery 10/1 – 1/2 point EW (1 point total)
The way in…
The trainer is in cracking form at the moment with 4 wins from his last 9 handicap runners, 5 winning or placing in total. He has a solid 23% strike rate here since 2009 in all race types and does ok with his handicap debutants. (10/80, 21 placed) I wouldn’t just back this horse on that stat but all in, at the price, he looks interesting.
The pace set up is also interesting…
Well it is another of those 3 year old races where nothing is ever a total surprise. This horse makes his handicap debut on his 5th start of his life. He ran in G3s on the first two runs this season and he was clearly showing enough somehwere for connections to think he deserved his chance. He was very keen last time out and threw his chance away. As a CD maiden winner we haven’t really had a chance to see how good he could be (albeit at a moderate level as he doesnt look a group animal).
On paper, and not taking account of what jockeys may do, there is a lot of pace in here with Union Rose, Snap Shot, Anonymous John and to a lesser Accipiter all liking to push the pace or lead. That should allow the selection to tuck in behind and pounce. Hopefully a couple drop away, increasing the chances of a place at worse.
Well you make a case for most of these for one reason or another (trainer form, clas droppers etc) but only one of these has shown the winning habbit recently – so it isnt packed in depth with winning horses. They all have something to prove to an extent. Union Rose, Snap Shot and Accipter’s form ties in as they all ran at Newmarket last time and finished in that order.
Accipiter is interesting in the sense that his trainer is also 4/9, 5 places in the last 14 days and Hughes has been booked. The trainer is also 1/2 with handicappers here since 2009 – he clearly doesnt send many here. I may have to have a saver on him just in case although i can see no obvious reason why he would reverse the form with the other two.
So, hopefully we get a decent run for our money for what is a good price all things considered. The race should be run to suit, we know he likes the course and distance, and the ground, and he comes from a stable at the top of their game at the moment. All in hopefully a decent EW bet, and as always all i can ask is we get a run for our money. (nothing worse than being tailed off after 1 or 2 f!)
Elsewhere I have had a few dilemmas and I have thrown around some half points on (not ‘official’ selections)…
4.35 Beverley – Suzis Icon 6/1 – A few interesting angles. The trainer is in form, he has great stats at the track and when teaming up with Fanning. She gets the hood here, and also takes a marked drop down in trip. That may not be a positive but it is doing something different. Finally she is a front runner, and knowing she has some extra stamina there, i expect Joe to send her to the front and dictate matters. Her speed figure is well below the top 3 here but this tactical advantage could render than meaningless. She isnt in great form but there was enough there for me to have a small personal interest. It may be she just insn’t very good mind.
8.30 Killarney – Baby Whizz 14/1 – I cant see how this horse is this price. He is a bit of a character and they change headgear again but at this track two starts ago, he hacked up. The trainer is 7/19, 9 places with his handicappers at the track since 2009. The horse has a win/place record of 3/4 at the track and race conditions look fine. I had a small win bet as he seems to either win really well or gets tailed off. There was enough there for me to have a nibble at the price.
Finally, I have yet to bet on these two, but Mr Hogan is 2/3 with Handicap Debutants at Killarney and he doesnt have many winners in that sphere at all so I found that interesting. (3/16, 5 places in last 5 years – so 2 of those were at this track). He runs Pinehurst in the 6.30 and Meadow Cross in the 7.00. Both are double figure odds, in big field competitive races, but it will be interesting to see how they get on.