Ascot: Victoria Cup

UPDATE 

What a thrill! My favourite type of race on the flat and hopefully a sign of things to come if I can keep it up. A game of fine margins i have no complaints. Firstly I read the pace wrong and they absolutely steamed out in front – I suspect deliberately for some horses as this wasnt meant to be their day 🙂 Bishop rode a cracker on Lincoln because there was a strong headwind and if he had led he wouldn’t have placed. 

In all honesty my analysis wont get much better than that I dont think. I was looking at that race for 2.5 hours, but you have to to get it right in my opinion. With a bit more luck it could have been a +55 point race, as it turns out I will take +13.5 points. Also I got the place money from Hawkeye at 12/1 who ran a cracker. I was also pleased that I successfully narrowed down on the winner and glad some of you backed him. 

Enjoy your weekend, I will 🙂 

 

 3.45 Ascot 

Emell 22/1 – 1 point EW 5 places bet365 5th 

Lincoln 40/1 – 1 point EW 5 places bet365 2nd 

(4 points total) 

Trends (16 years, 387 runners, 64 places to aim at) 

  • 12/16 Top 5 LTO (206 runners) 
  • 12/16 4 or 5 yo
  • 14/16 carried 9-1 or less (2/100, 18 places carried more – places better than expectations) 
  • 14/16 had won over 7f or further 
  • 12/15 ran in C1 or C2 LTO (1 horse won making debut, hence the ’15’)  from 243 runners, Class 3 or below 3/132, 16 places
  • 13/16 had between 0-3 career wins. (13/209 runners) 3/163 runners, 4+ career wins  

Interesting info on Track Last Time Out… Thirsk (0/17, 0 places), Doncaster (0/31, 5 places) , Lingfield (0/32, 4 places) , Pontefract (0/10, 0 places)

 

Trends shortlist. Lincoln, So Beloved, Dream Spirit, Speculative Bid 

The above fit the trends perfectly, without looking at track last time out. So Beloved ran at Thirsk last time, 0/6, 0 places C2, 0/5, 0 placed OR91+. This is his second run for the trainer, which concerns me, but I am happy to take him on as he will need to improve him based on form so far. 

Dream Spirit has every chance if handling this occasion. I simply dont know how good he will be but I dont like backing this type of horse in a race like this. If he blitzes them then well done, but a 29 runner race is rough, and I want to see some evidence that he will handle it ok as he is very inexperienced. If you can overlook that then I cant put you off, he is in the ‘could be anything category’ 

Speculative Bid is a danger and I expect him to go close but i think the selections have as good a chance and he is much shorter in the market. His win last time was run at a crawl before a 2f sprint so it is difficult to know how good that was. However he is improving and deserves his chance. His trainer is 2/52 here which was a slight negative. 1st 

 

Selections 

Lincoln

He ran well for a long way at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance over 8f before fading very quickly. Maybe he went to hard but he cut out as if to suggest he needed the run. He then ran a cracker at Haydock behind the other seletion. It was a cracker because he was stuck 4 wide for the first 4f until they turned into the straight. He couldnt get across from his wide draw. He also couldnt lead. 

So, he ticks the trends and has been running well. The other ‘in’ is that, if his jockey chooses, he is the only out and out front runner in the race, based on the last 4 runs of all horses. Now i suspect some previous hold up horses may change tactics as some jockeys will be aware of the lack of pace. There are so many hold up types in this. Lunar Deity may try and make all also. However, if he wants a lead I think he will get it. 

THE DRAW – normally i assess the draw on pace, unless there is a clear advantage at a track (drawn against rail at Lingfield on turf straight, or low at Bevereley, Sandown etc) The historical stats for this race are 1/77, 8 places, those drawn 22 or higher. This could be one of those things and the places is nearly in line with expectations. 

So the draw could be a negative, but not from a pace perspective, plus he is 40/1! His trainer is also 0/10, 0 places in this race, which is off putting, but i couldnt ignore those odds. He may not win but if the jockey gets the fractions right I would be disappointed if  he wasnt in the money. 

 

Emell

I am scratching my head as to why he is so big in the market, really struggling. Maybe that means I have missed something but I dont think so. He falls down on the weight carried stat. 

In fist time blinkers he demolished his field at Haydock impressively. He then ran at Goodwood and got no sort of run. I have watched both his last two races (and Lincolns) and he got in a right mess, unable to get out on the fence when tanking. He was taken back twice to my eye just when he was trying to get into top gear. It was a strongly run race as well which means the form should be decent. He would have been top 3 without doubt with a clear run. He runs off the same mark here. I am not concerned by the weight because he was carrying 9-12 at Goodwood and that wasnt stopping him. Also a big weight is more of a struggle in a cavalry charge and I am not sure how strongly run this will be – it isnt like a normal big field where there are 5 or 6 who blast off and set the pace. 

A slight negative is that his trainer is 0/40 here in handicaps in the last 2 years however 20% have placed. Maybe this is the one, but 22/1 looked massive to me, base on his last two runs. There is a risk the blinkers fail to fire him for a third time but i will take that risk. This jockey has been on him for his last two runs, which is why Hughes can’t be on. If he runs anything like his last two runs he must be close to the top 5 at worst. He is drawn in the middle so there should be no excuses. 

 

Others. 

Well there are dangers everywhere and I have reasons why I have excluded them. I have been through every runner in HRB profiler tool, the geegeez cards and racing post. Zarwan has a favourites chance but I wonder if he has the speed for 7f given how he runs over 8. Maybe I have read him wrong but the lack of pace here may be a problem. Of course they will go quick, there are 29 runners, but not as quick as many races like this. He is short in a race like this as well given that niggle for me. But, clearly he is unexposed and could be well ahead of his mark. 7f may be what he needs, but I want him to prove it. 

Heaven’s Guest ran well LTO and loves a big field, probably a Top 5 contender as he rarely runs a badly in this type of race. He ran in aC3 last time at Thirsk which isnt a pointer for this race, and he was well beaten in this last year. Glenn Moss was second in this last season however he is a bit out of form and I thought if he was expected to win this pot one of his/stables usual jockeys would be on board, rather than a 7lb claimer. Although that is a guess, albeit a logical one. Russian Realm looks interesting making his debut for his new trainer which makes him dangerous. However, he has a few things to prove now and 14s is a bit tight given that in my opinion. 

Finally, Hawkeyethenooo… 3rd  while I would be surprised if he wins he has come so far down the handicap and gets a 7lb claim from a decent jockey. I have backed him for a 1/4 point to place at 12/1 as I think he could well grab 4th or 5th and I thought why not at those odds! 

 

No doubt something may win that I havent mentioned. Losing runs will be harsh in races such as this, but hopefully placed runs will not. I am confident in my approach to these races but we will see how we do over a season. 

Good Luck with whatever you are on

Josh 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

16 Comments

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  • good reading on the stats. you mentioned the draw,little snippet.i backed the winner a few years ago from ahigh draw and top weight(james bethell was the trainer,but have forgotten the name of the horse.i know he was a 7furlong specialist,(which may be a good point I think)so watch for 7 furlong specialists,i will.the draw of the winner I backed was 30 from 30.you have gave me something to think about now,it is a case of which way to go.

    robert j g 2 years ago Reply


    • cheers Robert..yes these straight track races are tricky from a draw as you have to balance recent history (which may suggest a bias in the ground, regardless of pace) and the pace – which if strong one side or the other is arguably most important. At the end of the day, you will never get a horse you are always 100% on given stats, trainer form, draw, jockey etc and have to consider the price- 22/1 and 40/1 makes up for a few niggles, as does 5 places.

      GL with whatever you are on.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • thanks josh for replying so quick.did a few caculations which may help narrow it down with your stats.have 4 horses at 7 furlong wins and their places,forgot to take the going into consideration.but here we go LINCOLN has15 wins and places from 23 runs (65.2%)RUSSIAN REALM 6 from 12(50%)SPECULATIVE BID 6 from 8(75%)HEAVENS GUEST10 from 26(38.5%) all win and place.go back to see if they like the going now may narrow it down again.hope this helps(from sporting life website)

    robert j g 2 years ago Reply


  • Great shout 14/1 winner 40/1 just touched off – £10 ew not complaining – Well done Josh

    Joe 2 years ago Reply


    • Cheers Joe. Yes that was a cracker, 22/1 5th as well. Cant complain, very nearly a craker of a result. Happy that it was won by one I fancied and mentioned strongly, but will happily back 40/1 seconds over 14/1 winners every day given the odd 40/1 goes in every now and then!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Great effort again Lincoln would have won easily with a clear run.Great effort Josh, keep up the great work.

    Jimbo 58 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Jimbo, yes that was fun, the winner did get first run and it always looks deceptive, maybe he would maybe he wouldn’t. Spencer got splits at right time and took advantage. I have learnt from my own betting last year as I would have normally just backed two to win, but 40/1 seconds add to the pot when backed EW. Very happy with overall result.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • This is why I joined Flat profiles, YOU are an honest guy who I feel I should follow. Thanks for the hard work Josh!!!!!

    Paul 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Paul, i would like to think of myself as honest, I think everyone that knows me would say that. Maybe too honest sometimes but that is how I like to be. That was a fun race!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • just when I was putting my bets on,visitors arrived.but you can see what I was going to do % wise above 1st and 2nd in the big race,missed them.ROBERT

    robert j g 2 years ago Reply


    • Oh damn, yes between us we had that race nailed. Next time!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Just been paid out on Emell – Didn’t realise it was 5th – Thanks again Josh !!!

    Joe 2 years ago Reply


  • josh, a big thanks for mercers row at 16s to everyone reading this join josh now,his service is tops

    bill 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,Nice placed horses,Lincoln finished fast and will win soon.
    Just watched Gemma Tutty give Mercers Row a great ride at a whopping 16/1. Excellent day.
    Cheers Terry

    terry 2 years ago Reply


  • hi Jose. a superb win A high class selection showing hidden form.
    a profile under the Racing Post form lines. Well done.
    Kind regards John

    john wayle 2 years ago Reply


  • nice work Josh. Almost outstanding. Cheers

    Mark B 2 years ago Reply


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