Ascot: Victoria Cup

UPDATE 

What a thrill! My favourite type of race on the flat and hopefully a sign of things to come if I can keep it up. A game of fine margins i have no complaints. Firstly I read the pace wrong and they absolutely steamed out in front – I suspect deliberately for some horses as this wasnt meant to be their day 🙂 Bishop rode a cracker on Lincoln because there was a strong headwind and if he had led he wouldn’t have placed. 

In all honesty my analysis wont get much better than that I dont think. I was looking at that race for 2.5 hours, but you have to to get it right in my opinion. With a bit more luck it could have been a +55 point race, as it turns out I will take +13.5 points. Also I got the place money from Hawkeye at 12/1 who ran a cracker. I was also pleased that I successfully narrowed down on the winner and glad some of you backed him. 

Enjoy your weekend, I will 🙂 

 3.45 Ascot 

Emell 22/1 – 1 point EW 5 places bet365 5th 

Lincoln 40/1 – 1 point EW 5 places bet365 2nd 

(4 points total) 

Trends (16 years, 387 runners, 64 places to aim at) 

• 12/16 Top 5 LTO (206 runners) 
• 12/16 4 or 5 yo
• 14/16 carried 9-1 or less (2/100, 18 places carried more – places better than expectations) 
• 14/16 had won over 7f or further 
• 12/15 ran in C1 or C2 LTO (1 horse won making debut, hence the ’15’)  from 243 runners, Class 3 or below 3/132, 16 places
• 13/16 had between 0-3 career wins. (13/209 runners) 3/163 runners, 4+ career wins  

Interesting info on Track Last Time Out… Thirsk (0/17, 0 places), Doncaster (0/31, 5 places) , Lingfield (0/32, 4 places) , Pontefract (0/10, 0 places)

Trends shortlist. Lincoln, So Beloved, Dream Spirit, Speculative Bid 

The above fit the trends perfectly, without looking at track last time out. So Beloved ran at Thirsk last time, 0/6, 0 places C2, 0/5, 0 placed OR91+. This is his second run for the trainer, which concerns me, but I am happy to take him on as he will need to improve him based on form so far. 

Dream Spirit has every chance if handling this occasion. I simply dont know how good he will be but I dont like backing this type of horse in a race like this. If he blitzes them then well done, but a 29 runner race is rough, and I want to see some evidence that he will handle it ok as he is very inexperienced. If you can overlook that then I cant put you off, he is in the ‘could be anything category’ 

Speculative Bid is a danger and I expect him to go close but i think the selections have as good a chance and he is much shorter in the market. His win last time was run at a crawl before a 2f sprint so it is difficult to know how good that was. However he is improving and deserves his chance. His trainer is 2/52 here which was a slight negative. 1st 

Selections 

Lincoln

He ran well for a long way at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance over 8f before fading very quickly. Maybe he went to hard but he cut out as if to suggest he needed the run. He then ran a cracker at Haydock behind the other seletion. It was a cracker because he was stuck 4 wide for the first 4f until they turned into the straight. He couldnt get across from his wide draw. He also couldnt lead. 

So, he ticks the trends and has been running well. The other ‘in’ is that, if his jockey chooses, he is the only out and out front runner in the race, based on the last 4 runs of all horses. Now i suspect some previous hold up horses may change tactics as some jockeys will be aware of the lack of pace. There are so many hold up types in this. Lunar Deity may try and make all also. However, if he wants a lead I think he will get it. 

THE DRAW – normally i assess the draw on pace, unless there is a clear advantage at a track (drawn against rail at Lingfield on turf straight, or low at Bevereley, Sandown etc) The historical stats for this race are 1/77, 8 places, those drawn 22 or higher. This could be one of those things and the places is nearly in line with expectations. 

So the draw could be a negative, but not from a pace perspective, plus he is 40/1! His trainer is also 0/10, 0 places in this race, which is off putting, but i couldnt ignore those odds. He may not win but if the jockey gets the fractions right I would be disappointed if  he wasnt in the money. 

Emell

I am scratching my head as to why he is so big in the market, really struggling. Maybe that means I have missed something but I dont think so. He falls down on the weight carried stat. 

In fist time blinkers he demolished his field at Haydock impressively. He then ran at Goodwood and got no sort of run. I have watched both his last two races (and Lincolns) and he got in a right mess, unable to get out on the fence when tanking. He was taken back twice to my eye just when he was trying to get into top gear. It was a strongly run race as well which means the form should be decent. He would have been top 3 without doubt with a clear run. He runs off the same mark here. I am not concerned by the weight because he was carrying 9-12 at Goodwood and that wasnt stopping him. Also a big weight is more of a struggle in a cavalry charge and I am not sure how strongly run this will be – it isnt like a normal big field where there are 5 or 6 who blast off and set the pace. 

A slight negative is that his trainer is 0/40 here in handicaps in the last 2 years however 20% have placed. Maybe this is the one, but 22/1 looked massive to me, base on his last two runs. There is a risk the blinkers fail to fire him for a third time but i will take that risk. This jockey has been on him for his last two runs, which is why Hughes can’t be on. If he runs anything like his last two runs he must be close to the top 5 at worst. He is drawn in the middle so there should be no excuses. 

Others. 

Well there are dangers everywhere and I have reasons why I have excluded them. I have been through every runner in HRB profiler tool, the geegeez cards and racing post. Zarwan has a favourites chance but I wonder if he has the speed for 7f given how he runs over 8. Maybe I have read him wrong but the lack of pace here may be a problem. Of course they will go quick, there are 29 runners, but not as quick as many races like this. He is short in a race like this as well given that niggle for me. But, clearly he is unexposed and could be well ahead of his mark. 7f may be what he needs, but I want him to prove it. 

Heaven’s Guest ran well LTO and loves a big field, probably a Top 5 contender as he rarely runs a badly in this type of race. He ran in aC3 last time at Thirsk which isnt a pointer for this race, and he was well beaten in this last year. Glenn Moss was second in this last season however he is a bit out of form and I thought if he was expected to win this pot one of his/stables usual jockeys would be on board, rather than a 7lb claimer. Although that is a guess, albeit a logical one. Russian Realm looks interesting making his debut for his new trainer which makes him dangerous. However, he has a few things to prove now and 14s is a bit tight given that in my opinion. 

Finally, Hawkeyethenooo… 3rd  while I would be surprised if he wins he has come so far down the handicap and gets a 7lb claim from a decent jockey. I have backed him for a 1/4 point to place at 12/1 as I think he could well grab 4th or 5th and I thought why not at those odds! 

No doubt something may win that I havent mentioned. Losing runs will be harsh in races such as this, but hopefully placed runs will not. I am confident in my approach to these races but we will see how we do over a season. 

Good Luck with whatever you are on

Josh