Scottish Grand National
Harry The Viking 25/1 1 point EW (Bet365, 5 places)
Wayward Prince 33/1 1/2 point EW (Bet365 5 places)
Time has got the better of me this morning however after much deliberation I have come up with these two. There are not too many trends in this. In fact you could make a case for not using them at all in this race. 17/18 did finish in the top 6 LTO with those finishing below this performing poorly. Also those moving up from C2 or C3 LTO have the best record (16/220 runners, 74 places – 2/177 did not)
While novices have done ok they have only won 4 in the last 21 years. I would always tend to favour a more hardy handicapper in a race like this. I also want a sound jumper (this race is littered with dodgy jumpers) who is sure to relish the decent ground. A lot of these are mud lovers. Finally I dont like being on a hold up horse in races such as this. There are a lot of hold up horses in this. Carli King, Lie Forrit, Harry The Viking will be up there from the start. I would want to be in the first third of runners. You avoid dangers/fallers and rarely have an excuse. Yes the pace may collapse but more often than not it pays to be handy.
Harry The Viking has done nothing wrong recently. He jumps well on the whole, will like the decent ground and will relish the trip. He came a decent second for Paul Nicholls in the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2012. On the back of that hard run (my reading of it) he flopped in this race as a 7 year old. He has now rediscovered some form and I expect a bold show. He races handily and there should be no excuses. He is one of the few horse in the field to my eye who looks guaranteed to stay (based on that Cheltenham run and recent form) and is in some sort of form. Yes he keeps finding 1 too good but he will keep battling to the line and I would like to think he will be in the top 5 at worse. There were no negatives that I could find. If there were lots of front runners I would be concerned he may get taken out of his comfort zone on this ground but I think he should be able to hold his position no problem near the front of the pack.
Wayward Prince should not be this price based on his recent form. He appears to have come back to himself and demolished his field a couple of starts ago in a decent race. The doubt, like with most of these, is over his stamina. I simply dont know if he will stay but his form over 26f means he is worth chancing. (he ran in the Grand National once but came into the race in awful form) He is still well handicapped on old form, is another who will be in the right place tracking the pace and he jumps well. He loves decent ground. If he stays, and it is an if, I think he should be in the top 5.
Like all races of this nature this looks very open. You could make a case for many of these. I have concerns over jumping for quite a few of them. Milborough, Broadway Buffalo, Catching On, Trustan Times, Global Power, Benbens, Amigo, Drop Out Jo all like to hit the odd fence. It hasnt stopped a few of them winning recently but in a 30 runner race their jumping will be put under extreme pressure and they are slightly more risky bets on that basis.
Many people will back Trustan Times on the back of his 3rd in this race last year. I am concerned that he is not in the same form, nowhere near and his stable is very cold at the moment, 1/37 last 30 days, 0/28 last two weeks. If he runs like he did last year obviously he will go well, but i have my doubts. The likes of Gallant Oscar and Sego Success are unexposed and should go well. They are very inexperienced for a race of this nature and I wonder if it will be too much. They could of course be ahead of their mark and they both look like they will relish conditions. However, I wanted to be with a hardier sort. I wouldnt be shocked if either won however.
UPDATE- (13.05) I should mention Wiesentraum at a monster 80/1. Chris prompted me below and having checked my notes there wasnt anything too negative and I have seen worse 80/1 shots. He must go LH and must have decent ground. I dont think he is good enough on what he has done to date and may be outclassed – but these extreme distances can do strange things. he does race prominently as well so could be up there for a long time. I couldn’t advise backing him as such as I dont think he will be good enough, but such is his price he deserves a mention. I may have a small play in the place market for fun!
Harry The Viking should give us a decent run for our money and Wayward Prince, if he stays, will do as well.
***
Profile Horses
In the 6.15 Thirsk CLUBLAND gets ‘his conditions’. His form on the Flat Class 5 or lower, 6f, returning 1-30 days reads 1,1,2,2,2,5,2,1
I have backed him at 4/1.
In the 3.25 Newbury I have had a small EW bet on BOOM AND BUST at 50/1 5 places.
All of his 5 wins outside of maidens have been in handicaps, over 1m, on Gd-firm or Firm..record..1,1,1,1,1 – He hasnt had those conditions since last win in 2012. I believe the ground at Newbury is Good to Firm. He also gets on well with Hayley Turner. Now this is more speculative as he is in no sort of form at all, hence his price. However he does have his conditions and if he could grab a place that would be great. He could just have lost his way.
Good Luck with all your bets this weekend!
20 Responses
Yes, I’m on Boom and Bust too as a friend said that it was the first run in these conditions since 2012 and Hayley is the Bust factor 🙂
My SGN bet is……….Weisentraum! Looked a real stayer in his early races but the first time over a trip today, now mature, and been prepped for it by Johnny Wadham. Leighton unavailable so Nico gets the call – another plus. On at 140/17 so you’ll hear the cheers if…….
PS a good trends fit except it wasn’t in the first 6 lto, but I’m ignoring that as that was a deliberate fitness run after a 5 month break.
Yes I debated him.. I will add a note above. I must admit, having now looked again following your prompt he is circled in my notes. Races prominently, gets his conditions (LH, good ground) – i just wondered whether he has the class or ability required. Still, at 80/1, maybe worth some speculative change! GL
Not a lot of trends for this race, agreed. Nothing on weights, age seems to be 8 to 11, occasional winner at shocking odds. GB-bred runners have fared abominably. Winners last time out win more than their fare share, fallers don’t. I’d also be looking at those who had their last run between two and six weeks ago, though last year’s winner certainly didn’t meet this trend. This still leaves us with a longish list to choose from. I’ve backed the top three in the weights each-way.
Josh ,
Congratulation,31 horse field,2 bets-and one is the WINNER!!!!!!
Lacos.
Cheers,yes that was rather nice! Shame it wasnt a 1 point we bet but that would have been greedy! Still a nice 18 points profit and nice to cheer on a big race winner!
Well done – hope you had a packet on!
Well my usual, was 10ew, 20 is 1 point for me. Always easy after they win but wish had another 10 on! Still a decent win!
well done josh,very good tipping,unfortunately i have been away all day and unable to access email.[that will teach me]
just seen my last message the time is wrong on the mesage
Well done josh…. Enjoy a pint or ten tonight mate.
Great shout! I too had Wayward Prince but stupidly cashed out in running for a much smaller profit. Well done.
Well done Josh – Segal took the price from you 40/1 with Hills – Fantastic tipping tho – Keep em comin!!
Yea I did see after the race that he tipped it,never a bad thing but cant say I pay much attention to what he tips! He must have read the blog haha
Well done Josh! Quality!
Great tipping, clear comments with no conflicting remarks or tweets. Congratulations! I cannot fault that. I appreciate its hard to keep consistency with winners and strength of comments with no dithering, such is the difficulty in the puzzle encountered on a daily/ weekly basis. However if the blog was like today most days I would be a ‘loyal’ follower and not just a reader for sure. Well done.
Thanks Jim – yes I take your points on board. In truth a bit too much dithering at times and some of the previews need to be clearer. Hopefully I have sorted those issues now and will be trying my best to repeat today’s model. In fairness I dont expect anyone to back all of my ‘tips’ blind but I need to ensure I provide clear information so readers can make up their own mind. I am getting there 🙂 All the best. josh
Thanks josh it’s Sam the barber here! , I’ve been following u for 4 weeks now and today put me on plus 24 points overal,
Cheers mAte
Hi Josh,
Well done on the national win. Had a small bet on it myself thanks to you. Great win on Clubland too. Do you keep results on the profile horses and if so can you point me in the right direction? Cheers once again
Hi Mike, yes I have about 200 flat handicappers that have decent profiles,much like clubland. I am pulling them together into a PDF for a fee 🙂 just finalising at the moment. There have been about 10 bets or so (although about 5 with perfect profiles, like clubland) with 3 winners so far. True Pleasure was one of them and he has won twice in ‘his conditions’ in the past few days at 12/1 and 9/4. Plus clubland. So about 13 points up at moment from a hand full of bets. And of course horses are developing new profiles all the time. My starting point has been horses with at least 4 handicap wins in their career to date. Anyway,there will be more on that in the next couple of weeks! But I think it is a decent and potentially lucrative approach for the flat.