Saturday isnt full of quality but it is to be expected given what we have coming our way.
I intend to preview the Irish Grand National in the usual way with trends and a selection.
Fist up tomorrow a couple of selections for some recently developed/discussed micro angles. (both discussed in recent blog posts)
’90 Day Trainer’ – John Gosden –
- 3.25 Kempton – Made With Love 2/1
Alan King Flat Horses –
- 5.10 Kempton – Ridgeway Storm 7/1
I have backed both, and will be backing them systematically. The stats are very solid and I expect they will both continue to perform. We shall see over the next few months.
I am not going to ‘advise’ any selections as such (cant say I am overly confident in what looks like a poor days racing) however in the 2.00 Haydock I have gone with Woodford County at 6/1.
I do think this is between the top 4 in the market and you could make a case for all of them, and probably some of the others. It is not a race I have gone mad in. Woodford County is a real trier, is a stayer, prominent racer and he will relish what looks to be soft ground. This race is nowhere near as competitive as his last two where he looked to be fading near the end on both occasions. Maybe this slightly shorter trip will be more to his liking. The one concern is that he does clout the odd fence and that will no doubt be enough to put some people off. If he stays on his feet I know I will get a good run for my money. He is in good heart and does have course form. A big run is expected, provided his two recent exertions don’t take their toll. He is still open to improvement and he should find this class 3 easier. He was near the bottom of the card on his last run but this time finds himself top rated.
Ziga Boy is unexposed for a trainer that has won this race before. I backed him LTO and found it hard to leave him alone but I just want to see a bit more. He is a very smooth traveler but I cant work out what ground he wants. Connections have said he likes it soft – his record on the track suggests he doesnt. Maybe this flatter track and longer trip will suit him. I expect he will look like the winner at one point. I just preferred the more battle hardened, proven stamina of the selection. If everything clicks he is a danger.
Fourovakind is an unexposed 10yo and will run his race again. The selection has beaten him before and I expect him to confirm those placings. He also needs to prove his stamina, although as always in this race some horses will improve for it. Buachaill Alainn is all about the tongue tie. He has problems with his breathing but according to his jockey last time out ‘once he realised he could breathe he took off’ – If he realises he can breathe a bit earlier on here he is still open to improvement. It was a poor quality race last time but he does have some decent hurdles form if you go back and he is better than that run. He looks like he prefers better ground but I think he will run a decent race. I couldnt put you off but there are a couple of niggles for me. Pinerolo will bolt up one of these days but he is so hard to read at the moment. All of the others had a few too many doubts for me.
In the 3.10 I have had a small nibble on Sydney Paget at 12/1. He has a very good record fresh and I cant get over his last win at this track where he demolished a decent field. Clearly he has had his problems but if fully tuned up, this bold prominent racer could get them all on the stretch. The length of break would be a concern but I was happy to take a punt at the odds. There are any number of potential winners in this, including the Nicholls horse – he cant have another big Saturday Chase winner can he? well, yes he can, and the market suggests he probably will. 4s is a bit short for me though on this occasion.
Good luck with whatever you are on.
I will be back at some point with a look at the Irish National. I dont know Irish form very well so I hope the trends/stats throw up something interesting!