My engagement with racing was rather limited over the weekend as I spent many hours drinking decent German/Berlin ales and craft beer. Having now had a look at the results from the weekend it was that man Alan King that stood out with his Chatez winning another nice prize on the Flat. A jumps trainer winning on the flat always catches my eye so I thought I would fire up my HorseRaceBase system building software and see if there was a way we could profit from his flat runners. (I have previously read about his decent record in the early part of the flat season but had never looked at it myself).
Following the win of Chatez this post is clearly a few days too late but never mind! Hopefully there are some more winners to come this year…
The ‘Rules’
- Alan King
- Flat Handicaps (Turf – see below for comments on All-Weather)
- 16/1 or under
- March, April, May Only
Results
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | Race% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Plc(BF) | P/L(Plc) | MxOdd | A/E | |
| ALL | 44 | 13 | 29.55 | 40.68 | 22 | 50 | 30.23 | 56.91 | 129.35 | 23 | 11.5 | 17 | 1.54 |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 100 | 20.9 | 2090 | 1 | 5.79 | 15 | 14.29 |
| 2014 | 15 | 5 | 33.33 | 6.18 | 9 | 60 | 33.33 | 7.87 | 52.46 | 10 | 3.76 | 9 | 1.29 |
| 2013 | 9 | 3 | 33.33 | 5.5 | 4 | 44.44 | 37.5 | 6.57 | 72.98 | 4 | -0.26 | 13 | 2.16 |
| 2012 | 4 | 1 | 25 | -1.5 | 2 | 50 | 25 | -1.52 | -37.95 | 2 | -1.3 | 17 | 0.99 |
| 2011 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 | 0 | -5 | -100 | 1 | -1.29 | 17 | 0 |
| 2010 | 10 | 3 | 30 | 21.5 | 5 | 50 | 30 | 28.09 | 280.93 | 5 | 4.8 | 17 | 1.83 |
Alan Kings’s record after May on the flat (with all other rules being the same) reads: 127 bets / 14 wins / 44 places / – 18 ISP.
I have struggled to find a way to profit from these runners however you may want to keep an eye on his flat runners, after May and with same other rules above, at the following tracks…
Chester: 8 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / +14.38 isp
Epsom: 11 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / -1.5 so far
Goodwood: 11 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / +10 isp
Newbury: 20 bets/ 3 wins / 9 places / +11.5 isp
Windor: 8 bets / 1 win / 5 places / -1
Back to his early season runners…
There isn’t too much more to say really. His Flat runners in the early part of the season should be feared and it is a decent Each Way micro angle. He has a 44% place SR with horses priced 5/1 and over.
His main go-to man…
F. Sweeny’s record reads: 18 bets / 7 wins / 11 places / +40
There is always a note of caution given the sample sizes. Chatez is now responsible for 3 of those 13 wins, and around 30 points of the profit. Hopefully another Chatez emerges from the King stable this season.
Given the place strike rate I do not think there is much harm backing them EW straight away. Even if he has a poor couple of months and has already peaked I cant see the losses being catastrophic. We shall see how he goes.
Taking earlier prices would have been worth an extra 10 points above Betfair SP since the start of 2012.
All-Weather….
King’s record on the All-Weather during these months is decent…. 13 bets / 5 wins / 9 places/ + 9.5 points isp
The slight concern is that most of the runners and all of the wins and 8 of the places, come from just two horses. However he clearly knows who to win at these tracks at this time of year and you may wish to consider his AW runners.
***
In other news…
The Aintree Stats/Trends Guide will be sent out in the next couple of days. (probably Thursday) All of the trends and stats for every race have been compiled but I am just researching some trainers to see if there are any micro-systems which could point us to a few more winners.
I have also finished researching some Horse Profiles for the Flat. Having gone through over 1600 handicappers that ran on the flat last season it looks like I will have 200 or to go to war with from May to October. (I will be getting the fine toothcombe out so it could be less than this if, on reflection, some dont come up to scratch) I am rather excited about this approach to finding winners and there will be more in due course near the end of this month/early May.
have a great week,
Josh
4 Responses
Josh, I want to say sorry for my post about Penitent and it being a non runner (if you took any notice). I didn’t write that it was D. O’Meara himself who had suggested this himself (for obvious reasons). The switch to the other race was completely unexpected (:
no need to apologise Chris…as it turns out i didnt look at any racing at all in depth, i places a few system bets etc but didnt look at one race at all! So i was lucky really…but keep on telling me what you fancy and why, that is punting for you!
Thanks Josh for all the hard work you put in on our behalf with stats and angles etc. and you still find time for a few beers in Berlin !
No problem Ray, I enjoy it. Yes, well I am so immersed in racing day to day, mainly research of one sort or another, that it is quite nice to have a few blank days with a beer in hand every now and then!