Aintree 2015: Day 1 Race Trends/Stats/Profiles

I have’t missed a day at the Grand National meeting for 7 years and this year will be no different. To help my analysis and to help find those elusive winners I have started to delve into the stats. 

Unlike Cheltenham I have decided to go through every race separately.

In each race I cover trends, ‘other stats’, trainer’s records and the odd micro angle/profile. I have ‘discovered’ on HorseRaceBase that you can ‘query’ any race where there are trends. This means I can use the system building tool to delve into each race in even more detail. I am not sure why I haven’t done this before, but there you go! 

I will be doing the same for Day 2 and Day 3 and will also see if I can uncover any trainer based ‘micro systems’ or general stats for certain race types. 

I will be producing a free E-Book/PDF that you can download.  I will email this out the week beginning the 1st April.

 

I know trends and stats are not for everyone. Indeed a lot of punters/experts detest the very thought of them. As always they are there for you to use or ignore as you please. My preference is to use the ‘relevant’ (subjective) stats to draw up a shortlist. However I would always advise that you go through every runner separately as well, if you have time. And of course sometimes you just have to ignore stats  and go with your heart/instinct – Coneygree would be a perfect example. 

Housekeeping…

The ‘Places’ stats also include any winners as well. So, where you see something like 1/19, 1 place. That would mean 1 from 19 bets/runners, 1 place – that 1 place would be the winner. If it were 1/19, 3 places that would indicate that 2 horses have finished in the places, as well as the winner. I hope that is clear. 

To save time and space I have made subjective decisions on what stats to include, if I think they are interesting and relevant. I.e for some races you will see info on the origin of the horse (FR,GB, IRE etc) but on others you will not. Where this info is not included you can assume that horses that were GB, FR, IRE bred,for example, had similar records. 

And finally, given I am looking at stats on a race by race basis some of the numbers are small. Maths bods out there would correctly argue that they are not statistically significant. As such do treat them with caution. You will no doubt have certain aspects you prefer to focus on given your own methods etc. 

Let’s get to it… 

 

Day 1

Race 1:  Betfred Manifesto Novices’ Chase

This will be only the 7^th renewal. As you will see below, Henderson, Hobbs and King have done well in this race to date.

Race Trends:

• 6/6 Top 3 in the market
  • 0/19 3 places outside top 3 so far

Other Stats:

• Those that won LTO are currently 0/9, 1 place
  • All winners finished 2-5.
• All 6 winners ran at Cheltenham Festival last time
  • 0/11 1 place, those that did not
• All 6 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 last time out
  • Non Major (0/8 1 place)
  • Grade 3 (0/3), Listed (0/6 0 places)

Trainers:

• Henderson 2/3, 3 places
• Hobbs 2/3, 3 places
• King 1/3, 2 places
• George 1/2, 1 place
• Nicholls 0/7 1 place

 

Race 2: Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle

Race Trends:

• 14/18 Top 3 LTO
• 9/18 Won by the Fav
• 16/18 ran within the last 30 days
  • 8-15 days 2/26 runners
  • 16-30 days ago 14/116 runners
  • 31-60 days 2/60 runners
  • 61 days + 0/23 runners (1 place)

 

• 18/18 had run over a minimum of 16.5f previously in career
  • 16f only 0/33 runners 4 places

Other Stats

• 14/18 ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO (14/90 runners, 37 places, AE 1.08)
  • 4/18 did not (4/134 runners, 16 places, AE 0.49)
• Track Last Time Out
  • Positives (in addition to Cheltenham)
    • Kempton 2/16, 4 places
    • Kelso 1/5, 1 place
    • Lingfield 1/2, 1 place
  • Negatives
    • Doncaster 0/5, 0 places
    • Haydock 0/10, 1 place
    • Huntingdon 0/7, 0 places
    • Leopardstown 0/5, 0 places
    • Newbury 0/10, 0 places
    • Stratford 0/8, 0 places
    • Warwick 0/5, 0 places
  • Horse Run in last 90 Days-
    • 0 runs 0/17 runners, 1 place
  • Horses that made their debut at Lingfield (AW)are 4/10 runners, 5 places
    • No doubt just one of those things but I found it interesting.
  • Those moving up 1f or more from last run: 0/14 runners, 1 place
  • Those yet to run in a Grade 1 were only 2/123 runners, 15 places, AE 0.27 (take with pinch of salt as only became a G1 in 2005, as you will see below for the micro angle)
    • 1 run: 11/68, 26 places, AE 1.21
    • 2 runs: 3/9, 4 places, AE 1.64
    • 3 runs (no more than this yet), 0/2 2 places
  • Those that had not placed (0), or had only placed once (1) in a hurdle: 1/78, 6 places AE 0.21
  • Those with 0 or 1 win only in hurdle races: 5/142 runners, 19 places, AE 0.53
    • 2 or more wins in hurdle races: 13/86 34 places, AE 1.1

 

MICRO ANGLE

I believe this was made a Grade 1 in 2005. As such look for horses that…

• Ran at Cheltenham Festival LTO (since becoming a G1, those that did not race at Cheltenham LTO are 1/62, 5 places)
• Top 3 LTO (at Cheltenham)

23 bets / 9 winners / 15 places

9 winners from the last 10 races, averaging around 2 ‘qualifiers’ a year.

Those that raced in a G1 at Cheltenham are 14 bets / 8 winners / 11 places

Trainer’s records using this micro angle:

Henderson 1/2, 2 places; Hobbs 1/2, 1 place; King 3/4, 4 places; Nicholls 1/3, 3 places

Alan King was also responsible for the ‘outlier’ in 2013, Lunique. Clearly he does well in this race!

 

Trainers’ overall records:

Positives-

• Henderson 1/14 3 places
• Hobbs 2/11 4 places
• King 4/7 5 places
• Moore 1/11 1 place
• Nicholls 2/19 8 places
• ONeill 1/3 2 places
• Richards 1/2 2 places

Negatives-

• McCain 0/5 0 places
• Williams 0/12 1 place

 

Race 3: Betfred Bowl

Surprisingly I couldn’t find that much to go on. Also, it only became a G1 in 2010.

Race Trends:

• 14/18 Top 5 LTO (74 runners)
  • 4/18 6^th or worse LTO (48 runners)
• 10/18 Top 2 in market (37 runners)
  • 8/18 3^rd fav or below, 86 runners

Neither of those ‘trends’ help too much.

Other Stats:

• 14/18 ran in a Grade 1 LTO (14/75 runners: 78% winners from 62% runners)
  • 4/18 did not (4/47 runners: 22% winners, 38% runners)
  • Since change to G1, 3 of last 5 winners ran in G1 LTO. But, from 23 runners. Grade 2: 1/4, Grade 3: 1/6
• 18/18 ran in a race worth over £17,000 LTO
  • (0/11 1 place below this)
  • 12/18 (69 runners) competed for over £100k LTO
• 4 of last 5 winners were priced under 4/1 come the off. Follow The Plan also won at 50/1.

 

The numbers are so small from the last 5 years there is no point in any further analysis.

 

Trainers:

1. Nicholls 3/16 6 places; D. Pipe 2/5 3 places.

 

Race 4: Aintree Hurdle

Race Trends:

• 14/18 Top 5 LTO (78% winners from 97 runners, 59% of runners)
  • 4/18 (22% winners from 67 runners, 41% runners)
• 15/18 Aged 6,7 or 8
  • 5yo 2/36 runners (6 yo are 5.36 runners for example); 9+ 1/22 runners
• 14/18 Top 4 in the market (78% winners from 77 runners, 47% runners)
  • 4/18 outside top 4 in market (22% winners from 87 runners, 53% runners)
• 16/18 Had between 3 and 5 runs that season
  • 0-2 is 1/31 runners, 3 places
  • 6+ runs is 1/34 runners, 5 places
• 18/18 16/1 or under
  • 0/52 runners over 16/1, 4 places

Other Stats:

• Horse Run 90 Days
  • 0 or 1: 7/46, 13 places (39% winners, 28% runners)
  • 2 runs: 9/82, 26 places (50% winners, 50% runners)
  • 3+: 2/36 runners, 9 places (11% winners, 22% runners)
• Don’t be put off by those yet to place or win in Grade 1 company. Their stats are comparable with those that have ‘demonstrated’ their class already.
• Those with 0 career wins and 0 career places are 0/9 and 0/8 respectively
• Breeding
  • IRE 13/18 (13/69 runners, 72% winners, 42% runners)
  • GB 3/18 (3/32 runners)
  • FR 2/18 (2/49 runners)
  • Other (USA,GER,NZ) 0/14, 3 places)
• 10/18 winners won 2 or more times this season (51 runners -30%)
  • 8/18 won 0 or 1 (113 runners -70%)
  • Clearly this would not be a decisive factor, but those that have the winning habit this season have done best given the number of such runners.
• Track Last Time Out
  • Cheltenham 14/18, but from 115 runners
  • All the other 4 ran in Ireland LTO
    • Dundalk (1/2), Gowran Park (1/3 2 places), Leop (1/4 2 places), Limerick (1/1)
    • Dealing with very small numbers but it is interesting.

 

Trainers:

Positives-

• Henderson 2/17 3 places (wins with same horse)
• Twiston-Davies 3/7 4 places
• Queally 3/5 3 places (same horse)
• Mullins 0/5 4 places

 

Other-

• Hobbs 0/7 2 places
• King 0/6 1 place
• Nicholls 1/12, 1 place only (debateable if a negative but the 1 place –which was his winner- surprised me)

 

Race 5: Fox Hunters Chase

Race Trends:

• 13/18 Top 3 LTO
  • 15/18 Top 6 LTO
  • Other 3 either Fell (1/8) or Unseated Rider (2/19)
  • PU LTO 0/53 runners, 1 place
• 15/18 priced 8/1 or below (from 72 runners, 83% winners, from only 16% of runners)
  • 3/18 priced over 8/1 (16% winners, 3/375 runners, from 84% of runners)
    • 3 big priced horses have won, but they would appear to be hard to find!
  • 15/18 Top 4 in the market (11/18 Top 2)
  • 15/18 Aged 9,10 or 11 (83% winners, from 61% runners)
    • 6-8 yo 0/41 3 places
    • 12/13 3/118 runners, 12 places
    • 14+ 0/14 2 places
  • 16/18 ran within the last 90 days
    • 121-365 days 1/86 runners, 4 places
    • 365+ 1/34 runners, 4 places
  • 13/18 ran 1,2,3 times this season only
    • 2/61, 8 places making their seasonal debut
    • 4 or more runs this season: 3/122 runners, 8 places
      • 2 of those had 10 or 11 runs this season (1/1, 1/2)

 

Other Stats:

• Those moving up in class by 1, 2 or 3 classes only 2/93, 9 places
  • Up 4 classes (from c6) 8/223, Same Class 6/59, 13 places
• Tack Last Time Out
  • Positives (those with 2 or more wins)
    • Aintree 2/17 4 places
    • Cheltenham 5/49 9 places
    • Fontwell 2/8 3 places
    • Ludlow 2/27 4 places
  • Negatives (0 wins, at least 10 runners)
    • Ayr 0/11 0 places
    • Fakenham 0/10 0 places
    • Leicester 0/23 1 place
    • Market Rasen 0/12 1 place
    • Sandown 0/20 3 places
    • Sedgefield 0/11 1 place
    • Stratford 0/14 2 places
    • Warwick 0/13 1 place

Trainers:

No trainer has won this more than once during the study period and very few trainers have had more than 5 runners in the race.

Of note:-

• Nicholls 1/15 2 places
• Bailey 1/4 3 places
• Barber 1/4 3 places
• Bolger 1/5 3 places
• Coltherd 1/2 2 places
• Flook 0/8 0 places
• Hobbs 1/3 3 places
• Jones 1/3 2 places
• Waley Cohen 2/5 4 places

 

Jockey….There is one jockey to note around these fences, and I am sure you can guess who it is…

• Sam Waley-Cohen: 10 rides, 3 wins, 5 places

 

Race 6: Red Rum Chase

Race Trends:

• 12/18 Top 6 LTO
  • 5/18 Fell, PU or UR LTO
• Those priced over 20/1 1/45, 5 places
• 13/18 Top 6 in the market
• Aged 10 or over 1/41 5 places
  • Fairly even spread from those aged 5 (1/6 2 places) through to 9 (5/57 12 places)
• Those carrying 11-11 and 11-12 – 0/12 0 places
• Last ran 121+ days ago: 0/12 0 places

 

Other Stats:

• Those that raced at the Cheltenham Festival LTO and those that did not have a near identical split:
  • Chelt: 9/123, 29 places
  • Other: 9/119, 29 places
• Horse Runs 90 days
  • 0 or 1 run 3/78, 13 places (AE 0.47)
  • 2 or 3 runs 12/137, 36 places (AE 0.97)
  • 4 or more 3/27, 7 places (AE 1.1)
• Do not be put off by those yet to run or place in a Class 1 race. They perform as well as those with Class 1 experience
• Career Chase Runs-
  • 10 or more in career: 5/132, 24 places (AE 0.51)
  • 9 or fewer: 13/109, 34 places (AE 1.13)
• Career Chase Wins-
  • 0-2 Chase Wins: 12/112 runners, 32 places, +31 isp, (AE1.15)
  • 3 or more: 6/130, 26 places, -64.5 (AE 0.55)
• 9 or more Career wins (all race types) 0/26 3 places
• Wins in a Handicap
  • 0 or 1 win in a handicap: 11/96, 29 places, +23isp (AE 1.1)
  • 2 or more: 7/146, 29 places, -56, (AE 0.61)
    • 4+: 2/60, 10 places, (AE 0.44)
  • Horse Runs in Handicap Chases
    • 1-2: 9/48, 14 places (AE 1.7)
    • 0 or 3 or more: 9/194, 44 places, (AE 0.56)
  • Horse Wins in Handicap Chase
    • 0 or 1: 14/151, 43 places, (AE 0.95)
    • 2 or more: 4/91, 15 places (AE 0.6)
  • Those with 8 or more places in chases: 1/64 10 places (AE 0.21)

In truth not too much to go on there really, which is disappointing. Given the number of such runners those that are more unexposed appear to have the best record. (that comment probably applies to most races ever run!) However, I would not be confident in using any of the stats to immediately discount runners given that horses with all kinds of different profiles have won over the years.

 

Trainers:

Positives-

• King 1/5 4 places
• Phillips 1/3 2 places
• Tizzard 1/7 3 places
• Webber 3/11 4 places
• A L T. Moore 1/7 2 places
• Phillips 1/3 2 places

Neutral-

• Nicholls 1/25 5 places
• NTD 0/9 3 places
• Williams 1/16 3 places

Negative-

• Henderson 0/16 1 place

 

 

Race 7: Aintree Handicap Hurdle

Race Trends:

• 12/18 Top 4 LTO
  • 2/18 5^th or 6^th LTO
• 18/18 Age 5-9
• 10/18 Top 3 in market
  • 3/150 runners, 14 places, priced bigger than 16/1
  • 15/192 runners, 54 places, priced 16/1 or under
• 18/18 ran 16-90 days ago
  • 0/54 runners, 6 places outside of this
• 18/18 had at least 4 runs in last 365 days
  • 0-3: 0/81, 11 places
• 17/18 at least 4 runs this season
  • 0-3 runs 1/112, 15 places

 

Other Stats:

• Did horse run at Cheltenham Festival LTO?
  • Yes: 8/170, 35 places
  • No: 10/166, 32 places
• Horse runs 90 days
  • 0 runs: 0/28 3 places
  • 1 or 2: 7/191, 32 places (AE 0.52)
  • 3 or 4: 11/110, 31 places, +90 isp (AE 1.5)
• Career runs – between 0-3: 0/18 3 places
• 0-3 runs in all Hurdle races: 0/27, 5 places
• Horse runs in Handicap Hurdles
  • 0 runs: 0/25, 3 places
  • 1-7 runs: 15/205, 41 places (AE 0.96)
  • 8 or more runs: 3/109, 24 places (AE 0.54)
• 1^st Ever Run
  • Those making their racing debut on the flat or AW: 0/88, 13 places
  • Those making their debut aged 2 or 3: 0/91, 15 places
  • 9/83 runners won on their debut (50% winners, 24% runners)
• Track Last Time Out
  • Positives
    • Cheltenham 9/181, 37 places (not just the Festival)
    • Haydock 2/16, 6 places
    • Sandown 5/14, 5 places
  • Negatives
    • Ascot 0/7, 1 place
    • Doncaster 0/12, 1 place
    • Kempton 0/17, 1 place
  • Other
    • Uttoxeter 1/15, 2 places

Trainers:

Positives-

• Jefferson 1/3, 2 places
• Jonjo O’Neill 4/17, 6 places
• Pipe 2/15, 5 places (father did ok in race as well, 2/30,8 places)

Negatives-

• Henderson 0/19, 1 place

Other-

• Hobbs 1/19, 1 place
• King 0/9, 3 places
• Nicholls 1/11, 2 places
• NTD 1/20, 5 places
• Williams 1/15, 1 place

 

MICRO PROFILE

ALL 18 winners:-

• Aged 5-9
• Ran 16-90 days ago
• At least 4 runs in last 365 days
• 1 + runs in Handicap Hurdles
• 1^st ever run: made debut aged 4 or over, and in National Hunt

That gives you 100% winners from 42% of all runners. It averages around 8 ‘qualifiers’ a year. Given there are usually around 22 runners, this is a useful starting point. There were 15 qualifiers last year which wouldn’t have been too helpful so we shall see what it throws up this year. By focusing on certain trainers and the track they ran at last time out, as below, would narrow it down further.

Total 18/142 runners

Those priced 16/1 or under are 15/88. Over 16/1, 3/54.

(In the last 12 years 11 winners have been priced 16/1 or under, from 67 bets. This would leave a more manageable shortlist)

Those 18 winners ran at either Cheltenham LTO (9/81), Haydock (2/6, 5 places), Huntingdon (1/2, 1 place), Sandown (5/9, 5 places) or Uttoxeter (1/7 1 place)

In fact all 3 of the bigger priced winners over 16/1 ran at Haydock (2/3) or Sandown (1/2) LTO. Horses running at Cheltenham LTO, priced over 16/1 in this race, are 0/29, 3 places.

(Whereas horses that last ran at Sandown have a shocking record at Cheltenham, they appear to be doing much better at Aintree so far)

Record over the last 7 years (all odds):

2008: 1,2,3,4

2009: 1,2 (50/1 winner)

2010: 1,2,3,5

2011: 1,5

2012: 1,3,5

2013: 1,2,5

2014: 1,3,4,5

 

That is all for now. Onto Day 2.

 

If there is anything glaring you think I have missed, or anything that is unclear, please leave a comment.

I have tried to dig into every possible relevant (to me) angle but if there is something you think I should look at, please let me know.

(as ever my thanks go to the team behind HorseRaceBase.com – this research would not be possible without it)