Cheltenham Articles: Master Copy

Cheltenham Handicaps + Grade 1 Chases 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/PROFILES 

 

Micro System 1 

  • Handicap Hurdles
  • H-Run Career: 1-3
  • H- Win Career: 1 or 2
  • Odds: 14/1
    • Results: 14 bets / 4 winners / 9 places / +31 BFSP / AE 2.13…
  • No odds cap and focussing on Nicholls, Henderson and Mullins
    • 13 bets / 5 winners / 9 w,place / +85 BFSP / AE 4.03

 

Micro System 2 

  • Handicap Hurdlers
  • 33/1 or shorter Industry Starting Price
  • GB/Irish/French Bred
  • Ran between 21-75 days ago
  • Handicap Wins : 1 or 2 only
  • Up in class by 1 or 2
  • NOT dropped in trip from last run
    • 26 bets/ 10 winners / 14 wins or places / +167 ISP / +232 BFSP / AE 5.78

 

Micro-System 3 

  • Handicap Chases (excluding the Kim Muir, 0/11 so far)
  • GB/Irish Bred (German breds yet to have qualifier under conditions)
  • 50/1 or under
  • Horse Runs In last 90 days: 3 or 4 ONLY
  • 1 or more runs at track previously
  • 1 or more wins in handicap company
  • 0 wins in chases at the track (1 or more only 0/6 no places)

A Further Filter… 

  • Distance move from last run: Down 0.5f, Same, Up 0.5f

 

Micro ‘System’ 4 (profile)

  • Distance 3m-3m3f (The 2.40 in Day 1 and the Kim Muir Day 3) 
  •  GB + Irish Bred 
  • 33/1 or under ISP 
  • Distance Move: 0.5f to 4f UP in Distance (same or down in dist 0/8 1 place / up 4.5f+ 0/9 1 place)
  •  At least 1 run in the last 90 days 
  • At least 12 career runs 
  •  1-3 Chase wins in their career 
  •  0 wins at Cheltenham in Chases
  • Aged between 3-5 when making racing debut under rules (only 0/7, 2 places, outside of this mind)

 

Micro ‘System’ 5 (Grade 1 Chase Profile)

  • Grade 1 Chases
  • 16/1 or below 
  • Age: 6-10
  • 1-3 run in last 90 days
  • 8+ career runs
  • 1 run + at Cheltenham
  • 4+ career wins
  • Ran in a race last time out worth more than £13k to the winner. 

 

 

Handicap Hurdles

Well it was about time I started thinking about the Festival wasn’t it. Today I want to have a look at the handicap hurdles. This is an overview and looks at all the races combined, rather than individual races/trends etc. That will come in time.

For now I want to see what type of horse generally does well and what type of profile we need to keep an eye on.

As well as being interesting ( I hope) I also want to highlight a couple of mini-angles to keep onside. I will highlight the selections on each day of the festival and while I may not back them blind, they will be essential in helping me analyse the races.

Of course there will always be issues with sample sizes, but that is life. This is a festival and I don’t think that means we shouldn’t dig into the stats as a way of trying to find the type of profile that normally does well. I also don’t think there is much point looking pre 2010. 5 years is plenty, especially given that, for example, training methods change and improve, and so does the quality of a horse that a trainer can attract. I would think Paul Nicholls would say he is a better trainer now than 6 years ago? Breeding and buying patterns may change as well and all told I am happy with looking over the last 5 years. I know some users of trends only look at the last 8 years or so of a race.

Where I end up discussing micro systems I have obviously tried to ensure there is logic in every rule. It can be easy to unintentionally back-fit (or intentionally if you are looking to flog crap) but I don’t think I have done that. Normally if there is a logical reason for a rule then you are fine. And of course sample sizes will be quite small. While I won’t necessarily back the selections blind, I think they will be useful in providing another level of information for race analysis.

The sole aim, as with everything I write, is to try and help us all make some money…

So, let’s get to it.

This is a very long post. (10 hours +, nearly 4000 words)  If you want to get excited you can jump straight to the micro-systems at the bottom (which are explained in detail below also) and then come back and read the rest 🙂 

***

Headline stats 2010-

625 Bets / 25 wins / average of 25 runners per race

(when you see ‘places’ below, that figure means all wins and places combined)

 

Odds

It is best not to get too ‘creative’ here. There has been no winner priced 50/1 or higher, from 111 to have tried. Only 3 have placed.

In fact the stats for horses ISP over 20/1 read: 329 bets / 5 winners

21/1 to 49/1: 218 bets / 5 wins / 30 places / AE 0.73 (perform 27% below market expectation)

Compared to horses priced 20/1 or under: 296 bets / 20 wins / 67 places / AE 0.81

So, clearly bigger priced horses do win, but they are hard to find. And don’t bother with anything 50/1 or over. Of course there will be a winner at those odds at some point in the future, but I doubt I will be on. 20/1 or under appears to be the place to focus on.

Interestingly 2013 was responsible for 3 winners priced over 20/1. There were none in 2010 and 2011 and 1 in each of the other two years.

Odds should never be used as a strict rule for things such as the festival. (some would argue they should never be used, I don’t agree) The hope of course is that when you back a 25/1 or 33/1 or 50/1 shot in the morning that it shortens. But, it is something to keep in mind. You have to back quite a few big priced horses before your pin lands on a winner.

For the following stats I will focus on those priced 20/1 or under… (that does mean I have given 5 winners away already, but I get 3 of those back later)

 

Breeding

USA and German Breds are 0 from 20, and only 4 places to show. Indeed I don’t think there has been a German bred winner at the Festival for a very long time but haven’t checked that. I read it somewhere, Ben Aitken’s excellent NarrowingTheField blog I think…a must read for any NH fan.   

GB: 62 bets / 4 wins / 12 places / AE 0.82

IRE: 141 bets / 10 wins / 32 places / AE 0.9

FR: 72 bets / 6 wins / 19 places / AE 0.84

Not too much to go on at this stage, a fairly even spread although Irish and French breds do better from a win % and Win/Place%

 

Age

Again not too much at this high level.

The only things of note is the poor record of 4 year olds: 59 bets / 2 wins / 13 places / AE 0.39.

They really underperform against market expectations and have an abysmal win %. Especially when you consider that 5 year olds, from the same number of runners are: 59 bets / 6 winners / 18 places / AE 1.16  performing 16% above market expectations, and are profitable to 24.5 points at BFSP

11 year olds are 0/5 with 1 place.

All other ages are fine. 7 year olds are 0/52 but for the life of me I can think of a logical reason why this is the case. 8 year olds are: 26 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / AE 1.83 and would have made you nearly 50 point at BFSP

Not too many strong conclusions bar the fact that 4yos struggle. Excluding 7 year olds from any analysis would be back-fitting in my opinion. No logical reason, given spread either side, why they should struggle simply due to age. 4 year olds are in all likelihood still maturing and may not have the experience to handle these competitive big field races.

 

Career Runs

Some interesting observations…

Horses with fewer than 10 career runs running in handicaps: 137 bets / 6 wins / 30 places / AE 0.47

4 of those wins come from horses with between 1-3 career runs, who are clearly still open to massive improvement and may have enough hidden from the handicapper: 30 bets / 4 wins / 11 places / AE 1.28

That means horses that have had between 4 and 9 career runs are: 107 bets / 2 wins / 19 places / 0.21

Horses with 10+ career runs: 155 bets / 14 wins / 31 places / AE 1.2

I am trying to think of the logic here, as I write…maybe on the one hand you have horses that are open to bags of improvement and are clearly well handicapped (1-3 runs). Those that have had 10 runs +  are clearly more battle hardened and up for the fight. They either still have something up their sleeve or are back to a mark to be competitive from. And those in between with 4-9 career runs are exactly that, in between – they are neither unexposed enough to cause a shock, and at the same time don’t have the experience needed to get competitive. Your thoughts on this phenomenon would be interesting…I can’t think it is just an anomaly in the stats and I think there is some logic there! Or maybe it is a statistical anomaly..  

 

Career Wins

The only thing worth noting is that horses yet to win at all are: 16 bets / 0 wins / 3 places.

Winning experience is clearly important. There hasn’t been a winner with more than 8 career wins yet, but only 6 such exposed horses have tried.

 

Career Wins in a Handicap

FASCINATING

Those horses that have 3 or more wins in handicap company are: 34 bets / 0 wins / 4! places .

I find this surprising. Clearly being ‘exposed’ is no good thing here. Now, it is only 34 selections priced 20/1 or under, and something will surely win at some point. But it is the 4 places that I find surprising.

Those with 0 wins in handicaps (but, as above, clearly with a win in novice/maiden company against their name) are: 146 bets: 6 wins / 32 places / AE 0.49

Those with 1 or 2 handicap wins to their name are: 116 bets / 14 wins / 31 places / +142 BFSP / AE1.41

There must be another mini system here with those stats…I will come back to that later if I can find anything.

For now…

 

***

MINI SYSTEM 1

The unexposed angle interested me…

Rules

Handicap Hurdles

Horse-Run Career: 1-3

Horse- Win Career: 1 or 2 (0 wins are 0/10)

Odds: 14/1 or under (Over 14/1 are 1/14, including a 40/1 winner..there is something interesting about bigger priced horses, give me a moment…)

Results: 14 bets / 4 winners / 9 places / +31 BFSP / AE 2.13…

BUT..here is the exciting thing… the TRAINERS…

If I were to tell you that all runners come from 6 trainers in total, but that ALL 4 winners come from just 3 trainers…I think you could guess who they are…yes Messrs  Henderson, Nicholls and Mullins..

Henderson: 3 bets / 1 win / 2 win, place total +16

Nicholls: 2 bets / 1 win / 1 win, place total +3.5

Mullins: 3 bets / 2 winners / 2 win, place total + 18

As impressively these three are also responsible for the majority of the big priced placed horses and the one big priced winner… 

Henderson = 40/1 winner ; Nicholls – his two other runners came 4th and 3rd at 25s; Mullins a 4th 25/1 and 6th 20/1

David Pipe is the other powerhouse who has had 4 runners with the rules above. He has yet to have a winner but 2 have placed. This could be his year?

Just focusing on those 3 powerhouses, with no odds cap…

13 bets / 5 winners / 9 w,place / +85 BFSP / AE 4.03

These types of handicap hurdlers, from these powerful yards, always do well, regardless of price. Yes it is a small data set…but come on, it is the festival. Do you want me to wait until they have had 100 runners each 🙂

Of course none of the above may have a winner this year but the information should be useful nonetheless when looking to dissect the handicap hurdles.

***

 

Right, back to the general analysis…

 

Horses Runs in 90 Days

Handicap Hurdlers at the Festival that have had no runs in last 90 days are: 32 bets / 0 wins / 6 places

You want a horse that has proved their fitness…

Horses with just 1 run have the best overall stats:  103 bets / 11 wins / 27 places / +62 BFSP / AE 1.17

More than 1 run inside last 90 days: 161 bets / 9 wins / 34 places / AE 0.69

So, 1 run looks optimum but don’t be put off by more. Do be put off by those that haven’t run at all in the past 90 days. Although if you really fancy it, and the price is right, you should probably have something on :)C

 

Days Since Run

ALL 20 winners in the sample (those priced 20/1 and under) ran between 21 and 75 days ago. This makes perfect sense. You need a horse that has had enough of a break since their last run, but at the same time they still need to be sharp.

Handicap Hurdlers returning within 6-20 days are: 27 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

Those returning after 75 days off are: 40 bets/ 0 wins/ 7 places

This appears to be material and should be a standard rule in any other mini system I think.

 

Season Runs + Wins

Nothing much on seasonal runs, however, and unsurprisingly, those having their first run are 0/7.

Wins during the season… well the only thing of note is those that have won 3 or more times already. They are: 36 bets / 1 win / 7 places / AE 0.3.

This has clear logic. It would suggest that they do not have anything in hand of the ‘capper..which you would expect having won a few times already.

There is a pretty even spread of stats and figures for those that have 0, 1 or 2 wins this season.

 

Cheltenham Experience

There isn’t really anything of note here and maybe too much is made of this. Those that have never ran at the track are: 134 bets / 8 wins / 27 places / AE 0.65

1 or 2 runs at track: 118 bets / 6 wins / 26 places / AE 0.66

3 or 4 runs is more solid: 31 bets / 4 wins / 11 places/ AE 1.7

I wouldn’t be put off by no track experience although clearly if your selection has some, and they have proved they handle the track, that is one less thing you have to worry about. Horses that have never ran at the course can clearly win. Maybe experience of larger fields (something I can’t test) is more important.

 

Class Move

Very interesting…

Those horses running in the same class or dropping in class (1 class through to 4) are: 96 bets / 2 wins / 16 places / AE 0.27

This looks significant. Clearly you need a horse at the top of his game and a drop in class suggests they may be out of form or have been pitched into a level they found difficult. I wouldn’t want to be backing class droppers based on this evidence. I suppose people get sucked in by horses dropping in class, rather than those who are progressing and climbing the ladder. Those running in the same class, included in the stats above are:  44 bets/ 1 win / 10 places.

Those going up in class by 3 or more classes don’t perform much better either: 46 bets / 1 win / 7 places / 0.22

This is a bit easier to explain I think. Clearly most of these are not good enough. Dossing up in C4 races say and going up to graded hurdles is clearly rather challenging! It looks like those taking a big rise in class are to be avoided.

The figures for those running up 1 or 2 classes are: 77 bets / 9 wins / 18 places / +90 BFSP / AE 1.36

Interesting. Yes they are not massive samples but it appears, from the evidence so far, that it is wise to focus on those progressive horses (or well hidden from handicapper) that are going up in class, but not too much.

 

Distance move

Those dropping down any distance from their last run are as follows… 53 bets / 3 wins / 11 places / AE 0.7

Those going up in distance from their last start.. 181 bets / 14 wins / 42 places / AE 0.89

All in all not too much to read into those taking a move in distance I don’t think. Certainly I would slightly favour those running at the same distance or taking a step up in trip. Quite a few stepping up in distance clearly improve for doing so.

 

Finishing Position Last Time Out

Those that won last time out undoubtedly do best: 97 bets / 8 wins / 22 places / AE 0.82

The rest are: 195 bets / 12 winners / 44 places / AE 0.82

Nothing in it in terms of market expectations. Last time out winners are a good place to start but I wouldn’t let last time out finishing position put you off a bet. (unless strong trends for a certain race)

 

Track Last Time Out

Maybe not one to dwell on too much but there are some interesting observations…

Those tracks that have a negative record… Ascot 0/19, Sandown 0/16. The others that have yet to produce a winner haven’t had 10 runners as yet. (Cheltenham is 1/23)

Those tracks that have produced more than 1 winner are: Fairyhouse 2/7; Haydock 2/15; Kempton 2/22; Leopardstown 4/39; Newbury 2/47 (similar to Cheltenham given number of runners)

These figures are likely to do with the races contested and their strength, rather than the nature of the track. Who knows, but interesting nonetheless.

 

Trainers

I have removed the odds cap for this just so we can see their overall record.

Winners…

Those with more than 1 winner: Gordon Elliot 2/21 7 placed; Henderson 3/52 8 placed; Malcolm Jefferson 2/2; Willie Mullins 4/35 11 placed; Nicholls 3/38 12 placed; David Pipe 2/36 5 placed;

Single winners include: Tim Easterby 1/2; Hobbs 1/33; King 1/27; Lavelle 1/7; Martin 1/6 ; McCain 1/21; ALT Moore 1/1; T Mullins 1/; Jonjo O’Neill 1/26;

Those with notable poor records over the past 5 years include: Venetia Williams 0/22 2 placed; Evan Williams 0/10 0 places; NTD 0/14; Longsdon 0/13 0 places; J Ferguson 0/9 0 places;

***

So, that is it. I should probably try and pull some of it together into another profitable angle…  

I have shown you one micro system already. Caution should be advised with any approach that relies on small samples but it is all we have. (do I sound like a broken record)

The idea of what follows is to try and home in on the type of profile that has done well in recent years. Whether their success is repeated we shall see.

I hope you will be excited by what I am about to reveal…

I have built this mini system numerous different ways to ensure it is robust. Every rule has been looked at individually as a starting point. I am content that it has sound logic and there is no reason not to follow it this year…( at least as a ‘way in’)

So pulling together all of the above…

Rules:

(starting with no odds cap for now)

  1. Cheltenham Handicap Hurdles
  2. GB/Irish/French Bred (USA/German breds yet to have a winner in hurdles, that could change)
  3. Days since run: between 21 – 75 days ago. Material…only 1/169 outside of this timeframe)

In a way that was the starting set of data. With no odds cap this left 413 bets / 24 winners…

  1. Class Move UP 1 or 2 Classes ONLY
    • Those running in same class, or taking a drop: 136 bets / 2 winners / 19 places
    • Those up 3 or more: 70 bets / 1 win / 6 places
  2. Distance Move: NOT a drop in trip at all from last run. Those taking a drop: 33 bets / 1 win / 7 places
    • This is not as robust as some of the above…I may remove this rule to see all selections but without doubt those running at same trip or going up in trip perform better.

Up to this point we get 93 bets / 11 winners / 19 places / +185 BFSP / AE 2.51

This is a solid starting point for any form of further analysis come race day but there will be quite a few selections per meeting/day/race

I know from earlier analysis that those that had already won 1 or 2 handicaps faired best from the larger data set – would that be the same here (yes!)

  1. Horse WINS in a handicap: 1 or 2 ONLY
    • From this smaller data set above those with 0 wins in a handicap are: 35 bets /1 win / 4 places. Clearly it is hard to win a handicap having just won a novice race say.
    • Those with 3 or more handicap wins are: 15 bets / 0 wins. Now that is obviously not a large data set, but none have even placed. Clearly not the place for more exposed horses (in general, one will probably win this year at some point)

That leaves: 43 bets / 10 winners / 15 places / +150 ISP / +214 BFSP/ AE 5.00

However, no odds cap as yet and we know big priced horses don’t do that well…

  1. Odds 33/1 or below.
    • This angle finds 2 winners from 8 at 33s, with 5 winning or placing!
    • By getting rid of the no hopers, those priced over 33/1 we are left with a decent micro-angle. No winners priced over 33/1 from the 17 to have tried, only 1 place

 

RESULT

26 bets / 10 winners / 14 wins or places / +167 ISP / +231 BFSP / AE 5.78

Incredibly, these stats do not include the two Willie Mullins winners from the micro angle earlier, nor the Henderson winner from that micro angle. Adding those two would make it 32 bets / 13 winners

That is 13 of the 25 winners since 2010 from just 32 bets.

Full results…

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
 ALL 26 10 38.46 167.5 14 53.85 14 71.43 231.85 60.55 5.78
2014 10 4 40 56.5 6 60 4 100 97.69 29.02 5.41
2013 6 2 33.33 45 2 33.33 2 100 53.1 6.16 3.92
2012 4 2 50 34 4 100 4 50 41.66 22.2 11.11
2011 3 1 33.33 18 1 33.33 2 50 21.27 1.99 8.33
2010 3 1 33.33 14 1 33.33 2 50 18.12 1.18 5.56

 

By Trainer…

Trainer Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
Easterby, T D
2 1 50 32 2 100 2 50 71.64 18.43 16.67
Greatrex, W J
1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0
Henderson, N J
3 1 33.33 12 1 33.33 3 33.33 12.23 1.52 6.25
Hobbs, P J
3 1 33.33 2.5 1 33.33 2 50 3.21 -0.99 2.94
Jefferson, J M 1 1 100 20 1 100 1 100 25.65 4.66 20
King, A
3 1 33.33 31 1 33.33 3 33.33 35 5.03 7.14
McCain Jnr, D 2 1 50 15 1 50 2 50 17.01 2.87 11.11
Newland, Dr R D P
1 0 0 -1 1 100 1 0 -1 7.22 0
Nicholls, P F
3 2 66.67 26 3 100 3 66.67 30.72 12.25 11.11
ONeill, Jonjo
1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0
Pipe, D E
4 2 50 34 2 50 4 50 41.39 5.17 4.17
Tizzard, C L 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0
Williams, Miss Venetia
1 0 0 -1 1 100 1 0 -1 7.41 0

 

I think this is exciting.

Yes we are playing with small data sets. I have looked to build this starting with every different ‘rule’ first. I have turned it inside out and upside down. I don’t believe this is back-fitted. There is logic for every single rule, and when combined. Feel free to disagree. 

Stats from 2003-2007 are 0/34. 08 and 09 had 1 winner each year and were profitable. The rise of certain trainers, change in methods and how trainers target horses are responsible for this I believe. Maybe it is just a statistical anomaly and we will have 3 years where this approach doesn’t pick a winner. However, it is not many bets per year and while it may be foolish to back the selections blind, they should form a decent starting point for analysis. Although, even if we did back them all blind this year it wouldnt cost much. 

As an Each Way angle it is exciting. Time will tell if it works this year. There is only one way to find out.

‘Selections’ will be posted on my daily Cheltenham Blog Posts.

****

To recap, the 2 micro systems…

  1. Unexposed Hurdlers
    • Handicap Hurdles
    • H-Run Career: 1-3
    • H- Win Career: 1 or 2
    • Odds: 14/1
      1. Results: 14 bets / 4 winners / 9 places / +31 BFSP / AE 2.13…
    • No odds cap and focussing on Nicholls, Henderson and Mullins
      1. 13 bets / 5 winners / 9 w,place / +85 BFSP / AE 4.03

 

  1. Handicap Hurdlers
    • 33/1 or shorter Industry Starting Price
    • GB/Irish/French Bred
    • Ran between 21-75 days ago
    • Handicap Wins : 1 or 2 only
    • Up in class by 1 or 2
    • NOT dropped in trip from last run
      1. 26 bets/ 10 winners / 14 wins or places / +167 ISP / +232 BFSP / AE 5.78

 

Right, that has taken 10 hours +…I had better move onto handicap chases. Once my brain has cleared I will go back through the handicap hurdles to see if there is anything else of interest/that i have missed. Handicap Chases will be posted next week at some point. There is some decent racing tomorrow and Saturday to look at in the meantime. And I have more flat profiles to find…that bank is building up nicely.

 

As ever without the excellent Horse Race Base (and the V4 system builder in particular) this analysis would not be possible. So, thanks to Chris B and the team. If you join Horse Race Base, or have recently on back of my video, you can say that i sent you. when you donate (josh wright, username: ynwajim ) I think for every person that does that I get 1 month free, and every little helps 🙂 Of course, you don’t have too! 

UPDATE 

As one helpful reader pointed out to me I didn’t mention weight! That goes to show you just how little attention I pay to such things in my punting…but given it is clear certain types of horses win time and time again at The Festival it was somewhat of an omission for a piece on handicaps….

So, using the top set of data with no odds cap (ie all handicap hurdles since 2010)…

Th only thing of note to me really is that there have been no winners carrying 10 stone or less: 20 bets / 0 wins / 0 places . The 20 bets by itself is maybe not so standout but the fact that not a single horse has placed is significant. I would suggest these horses are simply not good enough. 

When you then get into the higher weights you can dice it up how you like to fit your own ends really. 

There is no real reason why I have chosen these cut offs…

10-1 to 11-5 : 504 bets / 21 wins / AE 0.8 

11-6 + : 104 bets / 4 wins / AE 0.66 

Everyone always likes to focus on top weights…. 

11-10 : 8 bets / 2 wins / 2 wins,places

11-12 : 16 bets / 1 win / 4 wins, places 

I couldn’t safely say ignore those carrying 11-12 based on that data set. 

 

If we add the 20/1 cap which gets rid of most of the no-hopers…

10-1 to 11-5: 233 bets / 17 wins / 53 wins,places / AE 0.87 

11-6 + : 53 bets / 3 wins / 14 wins,places AE 0.63

 – this is  how you dice it up. If I say those carrying 11-7 + the stats are then: 39 bets / 2 wins / 11 places / AE 0.63

11-10 : 5 bets / 1 win 

11-11 : 3 bets / 0 win 

11-12 : 8 bets / 1 win / 2 wins,places 

If  I look back at my main micro- angle those carrying 11-10 + are 2 from 3. 

All in all, bar those at the bottom of the weights, I cant read too much into them. I suspect for certain races there will be clear weight trends, maybe influenced by the distance of the race for example, we shall see. 

You could say that 10-1 to 11-5 (or 10-1 to 11-6) is optimum based on market expectations but if the price is right I wont be put off by the weight, bar those caveats above (low weight/clear trends) 

 

****

 

Cheltenham Handicap Chases

As with the handicap hurdles I have had a look at the handicap chases. There are a few more areas that I dived into that I hadn’t with the hurdlers that you may find interesting.

Finding micro-angles has been tricky but I have uncovered something which can be found at the bottom of the post and I plan to keep looking…

 

Headline stats 2010-

625 / 30 wins / average nearly 21 runners per race

(when you see ‘places’ below, that figure means all wins and places combined)

 

Odds

Again it is wise not to get too creative with odds, however bigger priced horses appear to do better than hurdlers. However, there have been no winners priced over 50/1 ISP: 46 bets / 0 wins / 1 place.

Those priced between 20/1 and 50/1 : 290 bets / 7 wins / 37 places / AE 0.69

Those priced 18/1 or below: 289 bets / 23 wins / 81 places / AE 0.82

Unsurprisingly perhaps it is best to concentrate on those priced 18/1 or under. However, when placing bets you don’t know what price they will go off at so this is only a guide. For the purposes of what follows I am just going to exclude those priced above 50/1…

 

Breeding

Unsurprisingly perhaps Irish breds, followed by British breds do best over fences here…

Irish: 319 bets / 20 wins / 64 places / AE 0.91

British: 100 bets / 6 wins / 25 places / AE 0.94

Indeed if you had backed both blind since 2010 you would be showing a profit to BFSP of nearly 70 points. (although most of that down to a couple of winners no doubt)

USA breds are: 16 bets / 0 winners/ 4 places

German Breds: 6 bets / 1 winner / 2 places

It is the French breds which we should be wary of, especially their performance against market expectation: 132 bets / 3 wins / 22 places / AE 0.36. They have drawn a complete blank at the 2013 and 2014 festivals, 0/29 and 0/25 respectively. They were also 0/27 in 2010

 

Age

Don’t go too young and don’t go too old would be the advice here.

5 year olds are: 10 bets / 0 wins / 1 place so far and although a limited sample I would be wary of the young ones. This may be a trend that changes and is worth keeping an eye on.

At the other end those 11 or over are: 80 bets / 1 win / 15 places / AE 0.22 . That 1 win for 11yo’s was in the Cross Country and if you exclude that race those older than 10 are: 43 bets / 0 wins / 6 places

On the stats, represented by win strike rate, place strike rate and AE there isn’t much to choose between those aged 6,7,8,9,10….

Total: 489 bets / 29 wins / 102 places / AE 0.88

From now on I will exclude the cross country race by adding in a distance filter. This is a very unique test so for now I will leave it out. It is generally contested by older more exposed horses which may or may not skew the following stats…

 

Career Runs

There isn’t much of note here. There is a spread with horses with 3 career runs (2/ 4) and those with 30, 31, 40, 46 winning races. There is no logical way to divide up career runs so for now I will leave this one. I was hoping (more for ease of finding some micro angles) that there may be clear divide between more unexposed and exposed runners but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

 

Career Wins

A bit more interesting I suppose.

Those with 9 or more career wins to their name: 29 bets / 0 wins / 6 places

And indeed those with 8 career wins are 29 bets / 1 win / 3 places . Given those with 7 are 38 bets and 4 wins this could be a useful cut off.

So, those with 8 or more career wins (indicating they may more exposed than ideal and clearly not likely to improve at all) are: 58 bets / 1 win / 9 places / AE 0.39

Those with 0 career wins are 0 from 3. Not much to go on but I don’t think I could personally back a horse at the Festival that has never won.

So those with between 1 and 7 career wins to their name: 444 bets / 24 wins / 89 places /AE 0.82

 

Career Wins in a Handicap

Unlike with the hurdlers this section is not so fascinating. Again there is an even spread on all the figures and no real ‘way in’. . Those with 7 or 8 wins in handicaps are 0/10 and 3 places but they are not sound numbers on which to base a betting decision.

Those with 0 career wins in a Handicap are: 134 bets / 8 wins / 32 places AE 0.87

And in fact those with 0 or 1 wins in handicaps are: 254 bets / 14 wins / 54 places / AE 0.81

Those with 2-6 career wins in handicaps are: 241 bets / 11 wins / 42 places / AE 0.78

So actually, not much to go on there at all!

 Career Wins in Handicap Chases

This is probably worth looking at…I hope so anyway. As with the hurdle piece I am researching and writing this ‘live’ so to speak…

Those with 0 wins in handicap chases are: 206 bets / 13 wins / 52 places / AE 0.92

1 or 2 wins in handicap chases are: 221 bets / 9 wins / 33 places AE 0.65

3 or more wins in handicap chases: 78 bets / 3 wins / 14 places / AE 0.77

 

Now, with races that are 2m5f or below there is a fairly even spread.

 

But, in the two handicap chases above this distance (exc Cross Country)…

Those with 2 or more wins in handicap chases are: 70 bets / 1 win / 5 places/ AE 0.28

0 wins in Handicap Chases fair best: 75 bets / 6 wins / 23 places / AE 1.26

1 win: 65 bets / 3 wins / 12 places / AE 0.67

So, for the chase on Day 1 at 2.40 and the Kim Muir on Day 3 I wouldn’t want to be with those with 2 or more career wins in Handicap Chases

 

Horses Wins in Chases (all inc Novice)

0 chase wins: 24 bets/ 1 win / 11 places/ 0.62

1 chase win: 113 bets / 10 wins / 26 places / 1.16

2 or 3 chase win: 264 bets / 11 wins / 46 places / AE 0.64

4 chase wins +: 104 bets / 3 wins / 16 places / AE 0.65

 

So, those with just 1 chase win: 40% of winners from just 22% of runners. And certainly it looks best to stick with those that are more unexposed over fences, 1-3 chase wins.

 

Highest Class Run

Not much here, but those that have never run above C3 in their career are: 28 bets / 1 win / 2 places

 

Horse Places Higher Distance

Those horses that have placed 3 or more times at a higher distance than today’s race are: 121 bets / 4 wins / 24 places/ AE 0.55

0 places are: 205 bets / 9 wins / 38 places AE 0.68

1 or 2 places are: 179 bets / 12 wins / 37 places AE 1.05

So clearly placing at a higher distance, 1 or 2 times, is a positive. This would make sense given the pace of these races and ability to stay is clearly very important. However, those that have placed 3 or more times at a higher distance are maybe running at the wrong distance and simply do not have the speed for the race they are competing in. Nothing too concrete but interesting nonetheless.

 

Horses Runs in 90 Days

Nothing stands out in the sense that we can automatically exclude those with x amount of runs but it is clear that the more race fit you are, the better the performance.

0, 1 or 2 runs in past 90 days: 362 bets / 14 wins / 72 places / AE 0.59

3 or 4 runs: 137 bets / 11 wins / 27 places / AE 1.41

So, being ‘hard fit’ is no bad thing and actually they provide 44% of all winners from just 27.5% of all runners. Something to keep in mind anyway. While that couldn’t be the basis for a micro angle (although we may be able to dig into the ‘hard fit winners’) don’t be put off by those that have had a few races in the previous 3 months. There have only been a handful of bets with 5 or more runs so they shouldn’t be excluded, although no winners as yet.  

 

Days Since Run

0-5 days: 4 bets / 1 win / 1 place

6-15 days: 34 bets / 0 wins / 2 places!

16-45 days: 288 bets / 19 wins / 56 places / AE 1.09

46- 120 days: 160 bets / 5 wins / 36 places / AE 0.43

121 days+ : 19 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

So, outside of 16-45 days, the stats are: 217 bets / 6 wins (2.7%) / 43 places

FACINATING

Quite incredibly, 3 of the 5 winners to return 46 days+ are from DAVID PIPE.  3/17 with such chasers. That is rather impressive. Henderson 0/20, Nicholls 0/10 (no places) ; Jonjo 0/13; NTD 0/8 . Culloty and Martin provided the other two. It will be interesting to see how this develops moving forward.

 

Season Runs + Wins

Season Runs…those with 0 season runs are 0/6. 2 places.

Those with 8 or more season’s runs are: 33 bets / 0 wins / 6 places

All wins come in the 1 to 7 runs range although there is an even spread. For what can only be an anomaly those with 3 runs this season are: 104 bets / 1 win / 21 places. The number of places suggests this is just one of those things. 4 runs for example is 9/107… 7 runs 4/28. One of those things or is there a logical reason? Something to dwell on as they are not doing too well.  

Season Wins…

Those with 3 or more wins this season are: 46 bets / 1 win / 8 places / AE 0.32. 6 wins this season are 1/1.

There is a fairly even spread from those with 0 (9 wins), 1 (8 wins) and 2 (7 wins) wins this season.

 

Cheltenham Experience

Let’s start with horses runs at the track…

Let’s look at those that had run at the track in their entire career to date (in whatever race type)…

0 runs at track: 113 bets / 4 wins / 19 places / AE 0.54

1 run at the track: 101 bets / 9 wins / 22 places / AE 1.23

2-4 runs at track: 172 bets / 8 wins / 36 places / AE 0.78

5 or more runs: 106 bets / 4 wins / 21 places / AE 0.63

 

So, it is clear that those with some experience, but not too much (indicating they are more exposed?) do rather well. Certainly 1 run at the track previously is a good thing.

Rather fascinatingly, if we take those with 1-4 career runs at the track we can have a look at those that have ran over FENCES here..

 

0 chase runs: 86 bets/ 6 wins/ 22 places / AE 0.96

1 chase run: 102 bets / 9 wins / 20 places / AE 1.39

2 chase runs: 50 bets / 2 wins / 10 places / AE 0.73

3 or more (3 or 4,no more than that): 38 bets / 0 wins / 6 places

 

Now, how many times a horse previously won a CHASE at Cheltenham? This surprised me…

Those with 1 win or more in Chases (all chases, not just handicaps)  

114 bet / 1 win / 20 places / AE 0.14

(Those with 1 win are 1/92)

That means those that have never won at the track in a chase are: 391 bets / 24 wins / 79 places / 0.97

Now, Horses RUNs at Track in Chases

Those never to have ran in a chase here (0 runs) are: 198 bets / 10 wins / 42 places /AE 0.73

1 run in chases here: 108 bets / 10 wins / 22 places / AE 1.45

2 runs: 57 bets / 2 wins / 10 places / AE 0.58

(nothing much there…but don’t be put off by those never to have ran here over fences – but clearly a run in a NHF or Hurdle is a positive looking at the earlier stats)

Those with 3 or more runs in chases at Chelteham are: 142 bets / 3 wins / 25 places / AE 0.38

I did think that maybe the more experience the better, but clearly not. The number of places is solid enough and with a couple more winners the stats would start to take on a different complexion.

So, 0 or 1 run here over fences provide 80% of winners from 60% of runners.

Those with 2 or more wins at the Track (all race types) are: 44 bets / 0 wins / 5 places

Those with 2 or more RUNS over the course and distance (over fences) are: 78 bets/ 1 win/ 11 places / AE 0.27

In fact 24 of the 25 winners have never won over the Course and Distance they are competing over.

Those with 1 or more wins over course and distance are: 48 bets / 1 win / 7 places / AE 0.35.

 

 FENCES

In HRB these fences are categorised as VERY STIFF. 3 tracks are recorded as being very stiff. Aintree ( I think the GN, although that is debateable now), Haydock and Cheltenham.

Those with 1 or more WINS over VERY STIFF fences are only: 133 bets / 1 win/ 23 places / 0.12

That would indicate that a previous win at Cheltenham or Haydock over fences is far from desirable. Not sure how useful that is but interesting nonetheless. Maybe just an anomaly.

 

PLACES

Those that had placed at Cheltenham in chases 2 or more times are: 96 bets / 1 win / 17 places / AE 0.16  

Those that had PLACED over course and distance (chases) 1 or more times are : 105 bets / 1 win / 15 places / AE 0.16

When looking at a chaser I would have been encouraged if they had placed over CD before but clearly this isn’t the massive positive I thought it may be.

It is difficult to know what to read into that. Firstly don’t be put off by those that have no experience of fences at Cheltenham.

Then it appears the more experience you have the worse you do. I suppose there are horses improving for the experience of the track and race conditions, more so than those that have experienced them a few times before.  

And actually don’t be put off by those never to have placed at the track in any race type…

Those that had placed at the track, in whatever race type (NHF/Hurdle/Chase, non hncp/hncp)…

0 places ever at the track: 253 bets / 15 wins / 47 places / AE 0.99

1 place: 121 bets / 6 win / 28 places / AE 0.76

2 or 3 places: 94 bets / 4 wins / 17 places / AE 0.6

4 places or above: 40 runs / 0 wins / 7 places

Horse Places over the same course and distance …

Those that had placed over the same course and distance 1 or more times: 116 bets / 1 win/ 18 places/ AE 0.15

Those that had never (0) placed over the course and distance: 389 bets / 24 wins / 81 places / AE 0.96

 

 

Class Move

Not as much here as with the hurdlers…

However those dropping 2 or 3 classes from last run are: 40 bets / 1 win / 9 places / AE 0.42

Nothing stands out with the other class moves.

 

Distance move

Those dropping down in distance from their last run by 1 furlong or more are : 99 bets / 0 wins / 19 places.

Those stepping up in distance by 2 furlongs or more are: 104 bets / 2 wins / 17 places / AE 0.31

So, optimum conditions appear to be those moving down by 0.5, running at same distance or moving up by 0.5f: 219 bets / 19 wins / 48 places / AE 1.33

Those moving up by 1f to 1.5f are: 84 bets / 4 wins / 15 places / AE 0.78

So, it looks like it is best to avoid those taking a drop by 1f or more or going up by 2 or more furlongs. Asking a horse to do something too different from its last run clearly doesn’t work that well?

 

Finishing Position Last Time Out

1st LTO: 125 bets / 9 wins / 24 places / AE 0.89

2nd: 70 bets / 3 wins / 18 places / AE 0.54

3rd : 69 bets / 2 wins / 12 places / AE 0.49

 

The only thing of note really is that last time out winners do well. 36% of winners from 24.7% of runners.

Those that Fell LTO are 0/13 and those that were Pulled Up are 2/31

There will no doubt be strong trends for certain races.

 

Track Last Time Out

Some interesting observations, especially for those tracks that have struggled to produce Festival winners…

Ascot 0/40 ; Leopardstown 1/25 ; Newbury 1/45 ; Sandown 1/41; Muss 1/17

4 of the 25 winners ran over hurdles last time out from 51 runners.  

 

Position in Odds Market Last Time Out

Top 2 last time out: 194 bets / 12 wins / 47 places / AE 0.8

3rd or 4th in market lto: 117 bets / 7 wins/ 21 places / AE 0.99

Those that were 5th in the market or lower lto: 194 bets 6 wins / 31 places / AE 0.61

So, focusing on those that were fairly well fancied last time out looks wise.

 

Class of last career win

Interestingly horses who last won a Class 1 race, who are running in a handicap here, are: 87 bets / 0 wins / 22 places /

Those whose last win was in a C4 race: 52 bets / 2 wins / 8 places / AE 0.53

All other 20 winners last won in a C2 or C3 race.

Looking at it more closely, those whose last win was in a Grade 1, 2, 3 or Listed race are: 103 bets / 0 wins / 23 places . Maybe these horses have regressed, and a Cheltenham Handicap is no place to recapture form. Or, they are still in form but are still too high in the handicap from that previous win in a decent race.

Those horses whose last win was in a race worth £17001+ are: 135 bets / 2 wins / 29 places / AE 0.25

 

Last Win

Interestingly, those horses who last won in race with 11 or more runners are: 157 bets / 3 wins / 37 places / AE 0.29

I am not sure what this demonstrates and am still thinking it through! Or it is just one of those things. You would think a horse’s last win, in what would most likely be a competitive race with 11 or more runners, would be a positive.

 

Horses 1st EVER run…

Those running in a handicap chase here that had their 1st ever run on the flat, (flat turf and AW): 49 bets / 2 wins / 12 places / AE 0.72

Those who made their debut aged 2 or 3 : 80 bets / 2 wins / 15 places / AE 0.42

 

 Weight

From this top set of data nothing really stands out. Winners at most weights. Those carrying 11-11 or 11-12 are 2/28, 9 places.

If you look at those carrying 11-9 or more: 60 bets / 3 wins / 16 places / AE 0.71

 

Trainers

I have removed the odds cap for this just so we can see their overall record. (still excluding cross country)

Winners…

Those with 2 or more wins: Henderson (2/51); ONeill (3/27); Pipe (4/47); Tizzard (2/18); NTD (2/27)

1 win: Burke (1/3); Culloty (1/1); Hobbs (1/19); King (1/20); McCain (1/14); Moffatt (1/2); T Mullins (1/3); F Murphy (1/18); Rodford (1/1) Snowden (1/1); V Williams (1/29)

Notable poor records…

Paul Nicholls: 0/23 0 places! Best stick to his hurdlers then, at least in handicaps.

Mullins 0/8, 3 places. Not as bad as Nicholls mind.

 

Jonjo ONeill-

  • Notable all his chase winners have been 3m+. 3/17, 5 places. He is 0/10, 2 places, below 3m.
  • All three of those were Irish or GB bred, and were moving up 0.5 to 1.5f. 3/7 4 places.

Henderson

  • Opposite to Jonjo, both Henderson’s winners have come 2m4.5f or below. He is 0/20 (3 places) 2m5+ . His winners were GB and German bred. He is 0/19 Irish or French but maybe best not to read too much into that?

Pipe

  • All of his winners so far had been off the track between 31-120 days. They were also either moving down .5f through to up 1.5f. 4/16 7 places. Dealing with small numbers for the distance move though so I wouldn’t read too much into this.

 

Jockeys

I am not sure how much to read into this, given we are dealing with the most competitive racing of the year.

But for interest…

Jockeys of interest (negative) Aiden Coleman (0/14); BJ Geraghty (0/19); Hutchinson (0/9); Maguire (0/12); Jaimie Moore (0/10); ORegan (0/9); Sam TD (0/15); Ruby Walsh (0/12 – 0 plces);

Given who some of those jockeys are associated with their records are more likely to do with the trainer’s record?

***

Micro Systems..

Finding any ‘ways in’ is proving a bit tricky but here goes..

‘Hard Fit Chasers’

  1. Chases (exc Cross Country- although no qualifiers anyway in that race)
  2. GB/Irish Bred (German breds yet to have qualifier under conditions)
  3. 50/1 or under
  4. Horse Runs In last 90 days: 3 or 4 ONLY
  5. 1 or more runs at track previously
  6. 1 or more wins in handicap company
  7. 0 wins in chases at the track (1 or more only 0/6 no places)

Without adding ‘distance move’ criteria the stats are

45 bets / 10 wins / 15 places / +158 SP / +211 BFSP / AE 3.92

This is a decent enough starting point for further research. However we know, in general, not moving too far in distance from your last run is ideal..

  1. Distance move from last run: Down 0.5f, Same, Up 0.5f

Results: 17 bets / 8 wins / 10 places / +131.5 SP / +174.11 BFSP / AE 6.45

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 17 8 47.06 131.5 10 58.82 14 57.14 174.11 41.76 6.45
2014 3 1 33.33 8 1 33.33 3 33.33 10.35 1.34 5.88
2013 4 3 75 68 3 75 3 100 81.22 14.11 8.33
2012 5 2 40 17.5 4 80 3 66.67 22.03 18.28 6.25
2011 4 1 25 22 1 25 4 25 33.87 2.71 3.03
2010 1 1 100 16 1 100 1 100 26.64 5.32 16.67

 

Dropping down more than this is 0/4 no places. The two other winners from the original set were moving up by 4f, and by 1m4f.

Pipe is 0/2 in the above and both of his were returning within 30 days. We know all of his chase winners so far have had longer than this off the track. Nicholls has had 1 runner under the above conditions.

This does give 32% of total winners from just 3.3% of runners. Based on all of the stats previously discussed there is logic etc to every rule. A ‘hard fit’ horse (3/4 runs 90 days), with experience of the track, a win in a handicap, racing over a distance it is used to (distance move). They are also unexposed over fences at this track and haven’t shown their hand. 

 Of more interest, having just looked….

If we take the first set of stats, with no distance move….there have been no winners, from 11 runners, of the Kim Muir Amateur Riders race…this is seen as a weak trends race, and one of the weakest races at the meeting. 

Ignoring distance move, and a race distance at all (but excluding that race), it would include a winner of the Cross Country and leave…

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% P/L(BF) Plc(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 34 10 29.41 169.5 14 41.18 19 52.63 222.47 14 49.77 4.83
2014 7 1 14.29 4 2 28.57 3 33.33 6.35 2 6.51 2.86
2013 8 4 50 93 4 50 5 80 104.53 4 17.95 8
2012 8 2 25 14.5 4 50 4 50 19.03 4 15.28 4.17
2011 5 1 20 21 1 20 4 25 32.87 1 1.71 2.63
2010 6 2 33.33 37 3 50 3 66.67 59.69 3 8.31 5.56

 

Implementing the distance move stats above would leave the same 8/17 as above.

So, actually, that looks to me like an exciting little approach, especially EW. Let’s see how well it does this year! 

Venetia Williams is responsible for Carrick Boy who won at monster odds. However, if you just look at those priced 28/1 or under the stats are 9/22, 11 places. So, a bit to aim at there. 

***

I will keep looking for more ‘ways’ in and add an update if I can come up with anything…

 

UPDATE

Well I thought I would look at the two chases that are around the 3m1-2f mark. The 2.40 on day 1 and the 4.40 on day 3.

Rather unintentionally I have managed to find the profile of every winner of those races since 2010 (10 winners) from just 28 bets. Surely this is not going to be repeated, and surely it is just a statistical anomaly. Indeed 2005-2009 was 0/18 5 places, so it may be one of those things, but let’s see…

 

1. Distance 3m-3m3f (just to ensure I cover both of those races) 

2. GB + Irish Bred 

3. 33/1 or under ISP 

4. Distance Move: 0.5f to 4f UP in Distance (same or down in dist 0/8 1 place / up 4.5f+ 0/9 1 place)

5. At least 1 run in the last 90 days 

6. At least 12 career runs 

7. 1-3 Chase wins in their career 

8. 0 wins at Cheltenham in Chases

9. Aged between 3-5 when making racing debut under rules (only 0/7, 2 places, outside of this mind)

 

Anyway that profile…A hardy horse (career runs), that is a fit (run in 90 days) unexposed chaser (1-3 chase wins) that is improving for the step up in trip has…covers every winner of those 10 races in total since 2010. 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 27 10 37.04 119.83 14 51.85 10 100 140.92 32.12 4.95
2014 5 2 40 19 3 60 2 100 22.02 6.23 6.06
2013 4 2 50 42 3 75 2 100 40.66 11.52 6.06
2012 4 2 50 18.5 2 50 2 100 23.54 4.12 5.71
2011 10 2 20 0.33 4 40 2 100 1.41 2.88 2.53
2010 4 2 50 40 2 50 2 100 53.3 7.37 9.09

Jonjo is 3/4 all 4 placed under those conditions.  

Interestingly those 10 winners only include 2 of the winners from the first system. So, together they have found 16 winners of the handicap chases. It would be great if they could find some winners this year and whether these profiles stand up. They could of course find nothing but it will be interesting and exciting to find out. 

 

***

 

Cheltenham Grade 1 Chases

6 Grade 1 Chases: Arkle (2m); RSA (3m.5f); Queen Mother (2m); JLT Novice (2m4f); Ryanair Chase (2m5); Gold Cup (3m2f)

Headline stats 2010-

273 / 26 wins / 75 places

Odds

Only 2 winners of these Grade 1 chases have been priced over 16/1.

92 bets / 2 wins / 10 places / AE 0.71

Those over 33/1 are: 33 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

21 of the winners were priced 10/1 or under: 122 bets / 21 wins / 54 places / AE 0.91

That is 80% of all Grade 1 Chase winners from 44% of all runners.

For now I will just focus attention on those priced 16/1 or under which account for 24 of the 26 winners from 176 bets…

For now I will also look at all races together. By distance you could look at the Arkle/Queen mother; RSA/Gold Cup; JLT/Ryanair. And of course the races span different ages and experiences which will affect the below.

 

Breeding

GB: 21 bets / 3 wins / 14.29% / 6 places / -10.47ISP / AE 1.03

IRE: 94 bets / 15 winners / 15.96% / +45.25 IPS / AE 1.23

FR: 57 bets / 6 winners / 10.53% / -33IPS / AE 0.53

German: 4 bets / 0 wins / 0 places

At this stage I wouldn’t say you could be put off by breeding alone. The Irish clearly do best against market expectations. It is noteworthy, that French breds perform 47% below market expectations.

 

Age

Of some note, although of course we are dealing with small numbers:

5 yo: 4 bets / 0 wins / 1 place

10 yo: 14 bets / 1 win / 8 places

11/12o: 8 bets / 0 wins / 5 places

So, the older generation are 1 from 22 indicating it may be best to stick to those with younger legs.

 

Career Runs

Of note, those with 7 or fewer Career Runs are: 16 bets / 1 win / 3 places / AE 0.48

** On closer inspection that 1 win was Long Run. Horse Race Base does not take account of French form, it doesn’t appear in horses records. Long Run had had plenty of runs in France before his Gold Cup win..

So, removing him would leave: 15 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

 

Career Wins

If we remove Long Run again…those with 3 or fewer career wins to their name are: 15 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

 

Career Wins in Grade 1 Races  

0 wins in Grade 1: 70 bets / 4 wins / 16 places / -39 ISP / AE 0.49

1 win: 41 bets / 9 wins / 22 places /  +26 ISP / AE 1.34

2 win: 29 bets / 8 wins / 13 places /  +27 ISP / AE 1.81

3 win: 10 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / +8 IPS AE 1.26

4 wins: 14 bets / 1 win / 7 places / -12 IPS / AE 0.34

5+ wins: 12 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

 

Of those with 0 Grade 1 wins 2 were in the Arkle (Captain Chris/Sprinter Sacre) and 2 were in the RSA (Lord Windermere/Ofaolains Boy)

 

Horses Wins in Chases (all chases in career)

0 chase wins: 0/2

1 chase win: 15 bets / 5 wins / 8 places / AE 2.98

Nothing much else of note. There is an even spread from 2-5, those with 7 or 8 have won 3. Those with 2 chase wins are 1/43 13 places…one of those anomalies maybe.

Interestingly, 4 of the 5 Grade 1 chase winners to have had only 1 chase win to their name were winning the RSA. Just focusing on those with only 1 chase win to their name would have found you the winner every year such horses were competing.

There were no bets in 2011…

But-

2010: Winner 1/1

2012: Winner 1/1

2013: Winner 1/4 … and the 2nd and 3rd  (and 6th) ..so from 4 bets, the 1,2,3

2014: RSA Winner 1/3….2 losers 5th/7th both trained by Nicholls.

So from 9 bets, 4 winners, 2 places…6 wins or places in total.

Not a bad starting stat for that race!

 

Horses Runs in 90 Days

Those that had not run at all in the last 90 days: 20 bets / 1 win / 6 places / AE 0.32

There is a fairly even spread for those with 1-3 runs. 4 runs are 0/2.

 

Days Since Run

Nothing much here at all.

 

Season Runs + Wins

Season Runs. Not much of note however those with 5 runs that season were: 24 bets/ 8 wins / 13 places / +53 IPS / AE 2.46

Those with 6 or more are 0/9, 3 places.

Nothing much on season wins

 

Cheltenham Experience

Let’s start with horses runs at the track…

Let’s look at those that had run at the track in their entire career to date (in whatever race type)…

The only thing of slight interest is those that had never run at Cheltenham before were:

27 bets/ 1 win / 8 places/ AE 0.38

So, a run of sorts at the track looks preferable.

 

Places at Track (career)

Nothing much here. Don’t be put off by those that have never placed… 46 bets / 6 wins / 16 places.

 

Placed in a chase at Cheltenham:

Nothing here either. Those with 3 or more places over fences here are: 27 bets / 2 wins / 12 places

 

Now, how many times a horse previously won a CHASE at Cheltenham?

Nothing of note again. Also nothing of note for those that had won any type of race at the track. There is no disadvantage if you haven’t won here before.

 

Horse runs over the Course and Distance…

Those with 2 or more runs over the course and distance: 31 bets / 1 win / 14 places

 

Class Move*

Class means a move in Grade as well..so a move from G2 to G1 is up 1 class.

Those running in the same class: 48 bets / 10 wins / 17 places / AE 1.17

Up 1 or 2 classes are: 47 bets / 7 wins / 20 places / AE 0.93

Those going up by 3 or more classes are: 22 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

So, class 2 moving up to G1 is a move of 4 classes. Class 2, Listed, G3, G2..G1

That doesn’t look good for Sire De Grugy fans.

 

Class last time out

Those that ran in a Handicap last time out are: 13 bets / 1 win / 6 places. Bobs Worth is the winner, winning the Gold Cup having won a G3 previously.

Grade 1 Last Time out: 81 bets / 15 wins / 31 places / +29 ISP / AE 1.15

Grade 2: 63 bets / 8 wins / 26 places / AE 0.89

Grade 3: 7 bets / 1 win / 4 places / AE 0.81

Listed 0/1

Non-Major (none of the above, C2 or below): 24 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

 

Distance move

Unlike with the handicaps, there is not too much of note here.

Those moving up 4f or more are: 14 bets / 0 wins / 3 places

 

Finishing Position Last Time Out

Nothing much here again.

Won: 88 bets / 15 wins / 35 places / AE 0.87

2nd: 42 bets / 4 wins / 15 places / AE 0.85

3rd: 16 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / AE 0.95

4th: 0/8

5th 5 bets / 2 wins / 3 places

PU: 4 bets / 1 win

6th or worse (exc PU): 13 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

 

Prize Money Last Time Out

Running in races worth £13,000 or less to the winner: 21 bets / 0 wins / 3 places

Those above £100, 000 15 bets / 4 wins / 6 places

 

Track Last Time Out

Ascot: 29 bets / 7 wins / 12 places / AE 1.97

Cheltenham: 18 bets / 1 win / 4 places / 0.32

Kempton: 21 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / AE 1.35

Leopardstown: 37 bets / 5 wins / 15 places / 1.01

Newbury: 24 bets / 2 wins / 8 places / 0.45

Punchestown: 9 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / AE 1.33

So, all 24 winners come from those 6 tracks so far.

Removing the odds cap and the other two winners come from Doncaster (1/11) and another winner for Leopardstown. (6/46)

Sandown: 8 bets/ 0 wins / 2 places

 

Position in Odds Market Last Time Out

Again not too much here with a spread from Fav through to 4th in the market. Those that were 5th or worst: 17 bets / 1 win / 4 places

 

Horses 1st EVER run…

Of interest, those that finished 1st or 2nd on their racing debut: 117 bets / 19 wins / 49 Places / AE 0.99

Those that finished 3rd or worse: 59 bets / 5 wins / 16 places / AE 0.64

 

Trainers

I have removed the odds cap for this just so we can see their overall record.

Remember, this is from 2010….

Positive Records (2 or more wins)…

Henry De Bromhead (2/7 4places); Culloty (2/2); Henderson (8/35 15 places) ; Jonjo O’Neill (4/7 5 places) ; Pipe (2/11 2 places);

One time winners… NTD (1/6 2 places); Tizzard (1/5 2 places); C A Murphy (1/3 3 places); Moore (1/1); Hobbs (1/10 1 place); Harrington (1/3 1 place); Curtis (1/2 1 place); C Byrnes (1/2 2 places)

And….to the stats that we are all aware of, or have heard muted, but that still cause surprise…

Mullins: 30 bets / 0 wins / 5 places

Nicholls: 36 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

King: 9 bets / 0 wins / 3 places (not so bad in truth)

It will be interesting to see how they get on. Maybe, for the time being, they have lost the knack of preparing the big guns for these G1 Chases. Or, they haven’t had the firepower, or there is another reason. Given that Henderson, from a similar amount of bets, has had 8 winners in that time, they clearly need to do something differently. It could just be one of those freaks of the sport, we shall soon find out.

 

Jockeys

Geraghty (9/26 12 places); Lynch (2/9 5 places); McCoy (4/19 11 places); Russell (3/13 5 places); Scudamore (2/13 4 places);

Walsh (0/24 3 places); Townend (0/12 1 place); Fehily (0/9 1 place);

 

***

‘Winning’ Profile…

In the Grade 1 Chases

  • 16/1 or below
  • Age: 6-10
  • 1-3 run in last 90 days
  • 8+ career runs
  • 1 run + at Cheltenham
  • 4+ career wins
  • Ran in a race last time out worth more than £13k to the winner. 

That would leave you: 101 bets / 21 wins / 44 places / +54 IPS / AE 1.2

Mullins and Nicholls are responsible for 23 of those losers. Surely one, or both of them, will have  a G1 Chase winner this year…

 

UPDATE 

Using the above profile but with no odds cap you get the following stats…

150 bets / 22 wins / 50 places

Those priced 22/1 or over: 35 bets / 0 wins / 3 places 

18/1 to 20/1: 14 bets / 1 win / 3 places 

***

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

7 Comments

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  • Tremendous effort on your part to compile all of this Josh – bring on the Festival

    Andrew 3 years ago Reply


    • Cheers Andrew, hopefully some of it bears fruit! Getting very excited now!

      Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


  • I not sure if I can afford you Josh…………

    Rad 3 years ago Reply


    • ??? in what sense? backing my many losers of late 🙂 …the point in those stats is to help you find your own bets as much as anything.

      Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


  • Gosh Josh,

    My brain hurts just reading this stuff! You must need a lie down in a darkened room
    after that lot. Kudos to you Josh. I always find your insights fascinating but this is
    something else.

    Robert.

    Robert 3 years ago Reply


    • haha, well those 3 were articles were spread out over a few days, but yes about 4 days ‘graft’…thankfully I enjoy it!! hopefully some of it bears fruit!

      Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


  • Quite extraordinary. I look forward to your final ‘selections’ but just for the sheer volume of work you deserve to finish in profit.

    brian cross 3 years ago Reply


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