Pace Wins The Race: 28/01/14

UPDATE

Well that run rather sums up the shocker of a run I have been on with Pace ‘doesnt’ win The Race. An iffy start, then into the lead and looking ok, but then niggled, never jumping, never travelling and tailing off rather miserably. That sums up the last few weeks for this ‘daily’ piece. Just awful. Clearly there is a problem he isnt over. Maybe he sulked at not hitting the front but the way he jumped and carried himself suggested he wasnt quite happy to be racing, for whatever reason. It was the Team Twiston Davis chasing newcomer who pulverised them. He jumped well on debut, much better than most of the experienced horses, and won well. That is what you get in a Novice Handicap Chase. The only positive was that I got 14/1 about an 8/1 shot. But when they run like that it doesnt feel much of a positive at all!

Another shocker of a day awaits the Great British betting public on Wednesday – well in my opinion anyway.

I am betting in a race I have previously said I shouldn’t. It certainly isn’t isnt a race I would want to rely on for my betting profits but I cant keep sitting on the fence. You are best advised to use the analysis below as you see fit, however I think the selection is twice the price he should be.

15.00 Leicester 

Chase The Spud 14/1 (bet365) – 1 point win 

Yes I know. It is a Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase. At lest it is a c3 which is as good as it gets. First things first, 4 horses are making their chasing debut, 2 of whom are making a return after a lengthy break. Upswing, Hada Men, Ballyboughpat and Algernon Pazham are the four concerned and I am happy to discard all three. Yes one, two or more could jump superbly and be in the mix, but that is the chance you take in these races. That is partly why I don’t like betting in them!

Azure Fly is 0/5 on soft and appears to be best going the other way. 1/7 RH, 5/14 LH. His best form is also on flat tracks 5/9 and with any sort of undulations 1/12. So, there are a few reasons why we can take him on. On the other hand he ran a blinder last time out and is clearly going the right way over fences for a trainer who has done well at the track. Hopefully the soggy turf holds him back. He is a handy runner and may push for the lead.

Medieval Chapal is running his second race over fences having made his debut at the course last time out. He was far from impressive, jumping slowly and making the odd error. He is entitled to come on for the run and on only his 5th career start is entitled to be there.

Strollawaynow won well over fences last time out and is entitled to improve. He is 0/4 in class 4 although most of those have been novice races. He is entitled to be thereabouts but he isnt 14/1.

Chase The Spud. The only reason he is 14/1 is because of the PU from his last run. If he were coming here on the back of his Exeter run he would be half the price, and a similar price to Strollawaynow. (both PU in the same Newbury Race) So, the question we have to ask is can we ignore that run. At 14/1 I think we can. It is possible that he bounced last time. (second run after a some time off track) The trainer is noted as saying he is quite a light framed horse and had strengthened up before his win at Exeter which came after a few months off. Mabe he found it too much. Maybe he didnt like the track or just had an off day. In fairness it looked a much stronger race that this and maybe he wasnt good enough. There wasn’t anything wrong with his jumping and maybe the jockey just looked after him. Race conditions are fine and if he repeats his Exeter run he will make 14/1 look silly.

I have also checked the trainer’s record with horses that PU last time. He is 4/13 with horses that PU last time, but won the race before. His overall stats for horses that PU last time are 15/70, so there shouldn’t be too many concerns on that front. We also get the services of Paddy Brennan who excels over this trip (and further) in handicap chases (being one of the 3 long distance jockeys)

And finally PACE… I dont think he will get an easy lead at the front here, not with Azure Fly and Strollawaynow liking to set the pace. I dont think he needs to lead and am a great believer in being handy in chases. Paddy Brennan will have him in the right place and if the others dont go on he could lead them all the way, or pick them off up the straight.

So, in what is a very competitive race and one of the better ones on the day, I think i have a live chance at 14s. It could be that he still needs to strengthen and he is best fresh but we are getting a decent price. I just hope I get a better run for my money than I have for some of my most recent bets!!