Tuesday 26/01/15

Well Tuesday’s racing looks as poor as Monday’s and clearly there must be some big festival or something looming on the horizon!

There is nothing that stands out from a ‘pace’ perspective at all really, let alone in races I would want to play in.

The 4pm Taunton is the most interesting race of the day for me. Every runner has something to prove however it is Mrs Jordon, lurking at the bottom, who interests me. She looks to be crying out for this step up in trip by 2 furlongs or so. None of the more experienced chasers can be trusted in this and a lot of them are in awful form with plenty to prove. Milosam loves the track and will run his race again but I cant entertain him at his prohibitive odds. I keep getting my fingers burnt with horses who are ‘consistently placed’. I should maybe learn my lesson and realise that they often find one or two too good for a reason, and are therefore best left alone! Those with experience are arguably still unexposed and it is a poor race where you are guessing a bit. But at the threat of having a blank punting day (i have nothing system wise) I have parted with 1 point on Mrs Jordon at 5/1. We shall see how she does tomorrow but I would hope she is thereabouts.

I am also interested (no bet as yet) in how Auden gets on in the 3.40 Southwell. He is 0/4 over CD, is clearly not fancied given his price. However I have been tracking the jockey/trainer/track combo who have been very consistent since 2010 with a 25% SR which they have maintained every year. One year was a profit of 25 points with the others more around 5 points profit over the year. Anyway, a pair to keep an eye on when teaming up on the sand.

 

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3 Comments

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  • I think I have lost leave of my senses but have chucked a small bet i.e a fiver each way on this one!! But at those sort of odds nothing much lost in the big scheme of things.

    Taunton

    3:00 – I backed Twin Barrels when he ran at Doncaster last time after a very long break. He ran well for a long way before lack of condition took its toll and he weakened out of the race.

    Clearly he had had his training problems, but he is very lightly raced as a result and has not been rushed back from his last run, given another 70 day break. I saw his race that day and just looking at the way he went at his hurdles he looked like he needed a fence to jump,

    I think it’s interesting that connections are going straight into a handicap rather than go down the novice route. They clearly think that his chase mark of 107 is workable. The trainer only has a small string but she is 3-10 here at the track which is a positive. Granted the eight year old might need another run to bring him to the boil but I would think he is capable of taking a handicap off this low mark before long. The form choice is Sun Wild Free but the selections 40/1 odds add to my interest and looks worth a modest each way bet.

    0.5pts win – Twin Barrels – 40/1 @ Ladbrokes (BOG) & William Hill (BOG)

    Turf Talk 3 years ago Reply


  • H’mm, what did the 4.00 1st 3 have in common that none of the others had? They had both clocked 100+ Racing Post TS & 120+ RPR’s.

    Any horse over the jumps who hasn’t done that is pretty much Lay material, because they will always be vulnerable to one that has or a newcomer or lightly raced improver, very much an average figure to gauge the class of jumpers imho

    Have you read any Jon Gibby books? Although he deals with flat I think..

    Andy Silvers 3 years ago Reply


    • agree..although that is just poor quality racing where winners even surprise trainers/connections (ie tornado milan in race before) Most of them had it to prove over fences and had had a few goes. Was right to take fav on, my pin just didnt land on wrong horse 🙂
      Jon Gibby- yes i think i have one of his, yes for the flat I think. I salute anyone who can make money consistently in races that are that bad! On his hurdles form the winner was entitled to do that but had never really convinced over fences..but then, bar the fav, neither had the rest of them!

      Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


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