Well today’s Pace selection was poor and as you will read in the update on the post I deserved it really. I think I am starting to struggle mentally with these posts if truth be told. I dare say that is the lack of winners/long losing run talking. Anyway, there will be no Pace Selection tomorrow as again nothing stands out…
In future if there is no post by 10pm it means there will be no pace selection the following day. Given that I think this angle needs to be more selective I think that is the best way forward. As I have said before I dont really have a grip on the All-Weather racing and so much of it is poor quality it is hard to fathom, especially when you dont follow it closely. I prefer backing in 3m+ chases and Sprint Handicaps on the flat turf. This angle should come into its own once the flat season starts up again. In the meantime, I don’t want to be betting in races that I wouldn’t normally bet in so the Pace angle will have to be more selective. Finding a bet every day is proving to be difficult, or near impossible, especially when over jumps, bar system bets and ‘profile’ horses, i would normally only play in handicap chases, and even then only those that are at least 3 miles. As time goes on I think this post will have to change from finding a front runner that may last home, to a more general appreciation of how the pace set up in a race will affect the result. While we are still in profit I will take stock and hopefully be back with a selection for Monday.
In the meantime I do plan to look at a couple of races on Saturday and these will be posted in due course.
Josh
12 Responses
No worries. It’s a bloody hard game we can’t take for granted. Look at some of the people in racing, it’s a tough sport that can take its toll! I have been looking at a lot of tipsters stats and performances (I appreciate you don’t see yourself as a tipster) on various review pages and I think I’m right in thinking most people perform better on the flat and certainly between March and September on both codes, I could see clear spikes and better returns over these months that make the biggest contribution to annual returns? I’m having a rough time with another highly rated and well recommended service I subscribe to, and I’m not sure this has been the best time to get involved… Class and form stand up better in the peak of seasons…? Anyone else have a view?
Dead right Dave, making profit over the jumps is far more difficult than on the flat. Obstacles to negotiate for a starters as well lots of other aspects that can turn the form on its head. I notice far more non triers and handicap plots in the jumping game too.
Yes it is bloody tricky! Yes while I dont see myself as a tipster i was interested if I could do a daily ‘advisory’ piece with the Pace being the main angle but it is proving difficult.
I think it is about knowing your game and focusing on what you find most interesting. The first bit of advice I ever read about was to ‘specialise’ or at least have an area where you are more comfortable/enjoy looking at – for me that is the 3m+ chase and Sprint Handicap (which I have done ok at in past 2 seasons, this year will be interesting) as well as using trends etc for big races. When I add systems and Profiling into that mix i am happy/comfortable with my overall approach, and it has been very profitable for me over past couple of years. I salute anyone who can tip consistently across a number of different race types as that takes some doing in my opinion. I think ‘Pace’ approach will also do well for some smaller field middle distance races, esp if can focus on those jockeys with a decent record, in addition to helping with the sprints.
but yes, generally they say performance is best when form settles down – October was tricky with change over, and same can be said for April. Simply you have lots of horses that may have had a break and unless they have consistently run well after a break before (and are therefore exposed) it is hard to get a grip unless you know horse is fit/are a good paddock judge and go to races. I think when you are looking at a race in peak season generally horses have had a few runs so form is easier to assess…and then you have the issue back end of season of horses having too many runs, so you may want to focus on those fresher horses…it all makes it a rather enjoyable puzzle really!!
I think it has been a hard time for leaders recently. I like to back them in running and I have been laying off a lot lately.
Money lost, nothing lost; confidence lost, everything lost.
Hi josh… Play to your strengths, you talk a lot of sense, obviously know your stuff, and obviously care about your followers. Pace wins the race is still in profit don’t forget, the racing is pretty shite for the want of a better word at the moment. Keep yer powder dry.. Things will turn around.. Quite looking forward to the better racing and your prowess in those tricky sprints. Be positive and those winners will soon follow… Good luck.
Cheers Michael, have just sent you an email. You have hit the nail on the head, it is about playing to your strengths, and moving forward using the Pace as a way in to help with that analysis! The race previews have done well and anyone betting £10 a point on everything I have put on blog since Hennessy should be over £400 up just about, which isnt too bad 🙂
Hi Josh, I think its one of those crap periods of the year where a lot of strange to put it politely results happen, cheltenham is really only just round the corner so maybe a lot of trainers focus is elsewhere
Thanks all thanks Josh. No criticisms intended btw, anyone who manages to make a long term profit in this game is near genius, we all know the bloke who only sings when he’s winning, strangely silent Inbetween though! I think an understanding of maths plays a large part too, working with very narrow margins between success and failure, all part of the glorious uncertainty I guess! It certainly takes a lot of time effort and research to find an edge, after that que sera! 🙂
cheers Dave, yes I know it wasnt a criticism. Believe it or not I actually care, especially when I know some people may be following my advice with their own money. It makes winners much better, knowing others are on, but it makes losers and losing runs even worse!! I do think you can over complicate this game sometimes. Anyway, an exciting few months ahead and fingers crossed we make plenty of profit!
Hello Josh, I like your pace angle and your angles on the 3m chases. The good days come and they go. I note you have invested in some reading material from amazon, I find sometimes that when I have been reading that it takes a bit of time for the new ideas to take shape within my modus operandi. I have just finished Thoroughbred Cycles by Mark Cramer, excellent book. I’ve had Beyer books come this week and I’m into Pace Wins The Race by Ricky Taylor. enlightening! My partner stifles another yawn! They just don’t get it!!
Thanks Paul, much appreciated. Yes I got one of Cramer’s books, but I dont think it was that one. I will have a look at those you have mentioned and add them to the list! Yes I am yet to get stuck into the Beyer books but they look like they will be interesting reading. The Ricky Taylor book sounds interesting. Yes this is a lonely game..not many people do ‘get it’ sadly! 🙂 but it keeps us happy. As someone once remarked, this is the most intellectually challenging past time known to ‘man’!
I will get you from under your clouds,
Two runners tonight from the fahey stable,
Navarone runs in the 715 Epsom
Penwortham 820 Epsom
Penwortham is the most fancied tonight .