Having just watched the Spowarticus race live one can only conclude that he has gone off a bit too quickly there. It would have been interesting if Joe Fanning was on board! Maybe he just wasnt good enough but the way he tired in the final 2 f suggests he simply went too quickly. Given he got an easy lead as expected you can only be disappointed that he didn’t get closer. However, we took 9/2 (some of you may have got 5s) about a 5/2 shot and that is the key to long term profit. I hope you were all on Gorsky Island at Ludlow as highlighted in the video. I should add that given Spowarticus’ running style I would be very confident that he will win for us at some point in the future..just maybe not at Kempton.
*** i should add that the winner of the 7.20, New Rich, was the pick of Geegeez Gold Daily Tipping Piece called Stat of the Day. That element of the package alone averages 100 points profit a year from just one bet per day, betting 1 point. Another reason to check it out 🙂 That will teach me for taking on Matt and the team!! ***
Rayvin Black 4/1 (Bet365/Paddy Power) 3/1 general – 1 point win
We take a trip down to Somerset tomorrow for the 2.45. Maybe I have been taken in by the Oliver Sherwood runner after the heroics of Many Clouds (a horse I tipped up in a preview post on this blog 🙂 ) however there are solid reasons for why Rayvin is a decent bet at 4/1.
As always with ‘Pace Wins The Race’ he looks to be a confirmed front-runner, having led on his previous three runs. The only other horse in the race that has led in any of his previous four runs is Minella Definitely. He is versatile and I hope these two young jockeys dont cut each other’s throats. Rayvin looks to be a better and faster horse so hopefully he can get to the front and stay there.
Before getting onto his form and that of some of the others in the race let’s have a quick look at the trainer. Oliver Sherwood has his string in fine form. A quick click of the Geeggeez Trainer Form button tells me that in the last 30 days his 28 runners have produced 7 winners at a 25% win strike rate with 57% of all runners at least placing. His form in the last two weeks is just as good with 3 winners from his last 13 runners with 54% of all runners making the frame. So, we know there is nothing wrong with the stable. In truth his course form is nothing to shout home about and although he has had no winners from his 10 runners here in the last 365 days, 7 of them have made the frame.
To the horse… well he is young, unexposed and open to plenty of improvement, this being only his third handicap. What caught my eye was that last November connections though he was good enough to compete in a C1 Listed Handicap Hurdle at Ascot, having previously demolished his opponents in an Exeter Novice race. While he struggled to compete he did lead for quite a way and finished a respectable 6 of 12, 13 lengths off the winner. That was the last we saw of him until the 3rd of November this year. He ran respectably but I expect that he needed the run, having run freely for a large part of the race. Provided he doesn’t bounce (second run after returning from a fairly lengthy break) I would expect him to go very close with conditions in his favour. He also has course form, has generally been consistent and could be a cut above the others.
The main dangers look to be Minella Definitely and the Hobbs horse Powerful Action. The former has won his last two races and steps up in class here. That, along with his inexperienced jockey and the fact he wont get an easy lead were enough to put me off – but he should be on the premises. Powerful Action is interesting but doesn’t look to have progressed as much as one would have hoped. He came 3rd in a c5 handicap at Chepstow, won a C4 race at Ludlow. and came 3rd in his last race at Taunton,which was a c4. I prefer the more progressive profile of the selection and I think he is open to more improvement. I could be wrong and I expect Powerful Action to be up there but hopefully Rayvin is too well handicapped. And of course our horse will have track position.
While nothing in racing ever surprises me the rest either look out of form or exposed. The Alan King horse is only 4 but he is yet to win a hurdle race from 6 attempts and I want him to show a bit more before backing him.
Hopefully we can get back on track tomorrow,
The only other prominent racer that caught my eye was Lumpy’s Gold for Paul Nicholls in the 1.45 Wincanton. The yard is on fire and has a great record here. The horse is a bit in and out and is clearly difficult to train, having spent another 49 days of the track. That did concern me however this looks a mediocre bunch and you would think it is between him and the Harry Fry runner. All in all a doubt over his well-being was enough for me not to make him a selection but given connections, and his consistent course form, it will be interesting to see if the money comes. Currently 5/1 in places.
4/14 = + 16.5 points (re calculated after noticing an error)
p.s remember you can get a free 10 day trial of Geegeez Gold by clicking the link below. You too could be finding your own pace selections, or using many of the other money making reports which I will talking more about tomorrow.