Re Cap
Well Monday capped off a rather good few days. Having nabbed the winner of the Hennessy in the first race preview I have written for a while on the blog I manged to follow up with a decent 8/1 ‘Pace’ winner today.
Firstly Alright Benny – sometimes you are very bullish and you just get left with egg on your face – this was one of those selections. I am not going to come up with an excuse and was happy with the bet. Just one of those races where the jockey never looked happy. Maybe he didnt like being taken on up front – I dont know but either way it was a poor performance. Move on.
Thankfully the ‘master of pace’ as I will call him, Joe Fanning, gave his fellow riders another lesson from the front.Even if I say so myself my analysis was much better than the tripe they were spouting on ATR. The race panned out pretty much as expected and Fanning kicked turning for home- it was a winning move and the fillies’ stamina ensured she lasted all the way to the line. A decent 7 point profit day for the blog, taking the running total, since Thursday 2oth November (8 betting days) to…
4 winners from 11 selections and a profit of = 18.5 points profit – £185 for those betting £10 per point, or £370 if you are betting £20s. Not a bad return after just 8 days and one i will be trying hard to replicate in the next 8!
So, onto tomorrow…
Firstly there is nothing much that screams at me but there is another Fanning front runner that catches the eye and another at Southwell…
13.50 Southwell
Run On Sterling 11/1 – 1 point win
Run On Sterling has taken a drift in the market which is never a good sign but he makes his handicap debut and there are enough signs that the step up in trip will help. On his most recent runs he has ran up with the pace and led and I am hoping he does the same again. The fav is clearly well fancied although with the form of the yard and a slight stamina doubt in my mind (esp if he has received more of his mothers genes) I thought he was worth taking on. If the selection appreciates the step up in trip he could cause a surprise from the front. In a day where not much stood out I thought he was worth a bet at the odds. There are a few unexposed types in this race trying the trip for the first time so who knows what could happen. Time will tell!
You can find a video below of how I came to chose Run On Sterling using the bit of kit that has fundamentally changed my betting and helped win me over 570 points this year, betting 1 point and 2 point level stakes…. The Run on Sterling Race is on about 8 minutes 30 seconds so you can just jump to that if you wish 🙂 But the bits before are worth a watch.
If this looks like something that would interest you, click the banner below to take a 10 day free trial. It changed my betting and it could change yours too…
3.10 Wolverhampton
Spinaminnie – 7/2 1 point win –
A Joe Fanning front runner for his boss in a very weak race. This filly has been contesting C4 maidens and I found it interesting that they drop her into a C6 median auction maiden. She has qualified for handicaps and I wonder if they just want a win next to her name for future breeding purposes. So a drop down in class and the step back up in trip should help. I expect Fanning to dictate from the front and he can see off the fav who is drawn wide. The stable are just starting to come back into form so hopefully we have a live one here.
Running Total
4/11 = +18.5 points
15 Responses
I wasn’t planning to back A Benny at the shorts and then I heard the guys on timeform radio label it the lay of the day.
However, the price of your second selection did appeal and your analysis proved to be spot on.
Excellent work, Josh, and thank you.
As we say in Oz, goodonya.
Josh,
don’t know if you noticed but joe fannings 4 rides yesterday at wolves had three winners at 15, 8 and 10.5. The other came 4th of 13 at a bfsp of 3.99 It might be that his rides are backed in today so may pay to get on early !! one of the few benefits of being a night worker 🙂
Loving your site and performance so far. Hope to pick up a few snipppets from your analysis for picking horses that will trade well.
Kevin
Why don’t u just use the old fashioned write up Josh-u can’t beat the pen!!!This video link thing aint working so far-and time is ticking matey for today’s selections anyway…
Hi yes I have had some software issues…the same thought process has gone into them as with all selections so hopefully you can back them with confidence 🙂 Will add a quick line now
Cheers Josh-think in gonna leave the first one as too many imponderables.However Johnstons could be worth a punt…
Yep well it is a bit more of a punt but, bar the drift in the market, everything on paper suggests he has a good a chance as any of the others, including the fav. We shall see 🙂
Josh great video i signed up to geegeez race cards on sunday the information is top quality even if you dont have a alot of time the shortlist of horses given every day is outstanding for example yesterday one on the shortlist was 50/1 pretty bubbles 17:20 kempton. i will never sign up to a tipster again if anyone is thinking about signing up to geegeez definitely do it you wont regret it
It really is bloody good isnt it! but of course, if you want tips as well you have the excellent Stat of The Day and you have my Pace Wins The Race haha- once you get into the habit of checking the different reports etc it comes into its own and must be the best thing on the net for punters like us. And you get a 10 day free trial. Glad you are enjoying it and here is to many more winners in the future… do you mind if i use your quote in an email tonight? No probs if not 🙂
oh yeah i forgot about stat of the day and the speed ratings so much quality information. of course josh no problem you can use my quote
Very interesting video of how you came to pick Run On Sterling. I often looked at Geegeez site a lot before this kit you showed came out, but stopped. Still receive emails from Geegeez though. I shall have a look at it again as what you showed on the video was good. You mentioned about another video showing how you found Spinaminnie.
HI Goldenhorse,
Yes there was going to be another video but my gremlins and time caught up with me… i will be posting another video in the next hour looking at the 2.10 Ludlow and tomorrow’s Pace Wins The Race selection, so you can have a look at that one.
Josh
Hi Josh – have you kept a record on your Pace picks throughout the year and whether Flat/National Hunt/AW or Handicap/Non-Handicap races (for example) have proven more successful than others? Tom Segal pretty sniffy about using pace for NH races on The Morning Line on Saturday and wondered if he had a point from your records? Thanks, Simon
Hi Simon…well, the Pace picks have only really started in the last 9 days and this is somewhat of a public test – and actually up until a couple of weeks before posting, i didnt go through every race looking for pace as I do now…
I like focusing (outside of my system bets) on handicap chases, usually 3 miles plus, and sprint handicaps on the flat – now I use pace to help with that process…but have only recently started recording the ‘Pace’ selections as being ‘Pace’ selections if that makes sense! ie with the daily posts Pace is the way in.
So, this time next year I will be able to answer your question! I am keeping more detailed results for these posts and now you mention it I will record whether NH, AW, Flat – and i should record the track! so cheers for that reminder/hint!
I quite like Tom Segal – although the RP never publishes the records for their tipsters including him i dont think?? ..anyway he can be as sniffy as he likes – i would add that he may have been talking about Pace generally – i misses that bit of the morning line – in that respect I may agree (although Garde Le Victoires victory at Cheltenam Open meeting was all about a lack of pace and great ride) –
My take on pace is trying to find front runners that have the form chance to stay there, those that could get an uncontested lead and not be passed. Having just looked through my records I know from memory the following were pace picks..(front runners)
Mayode Wood Hexham NH 4/1
Lie forrit – Aintree NH 3/1
Lord Lescribaaa NA – NH 8/1
Papradon Uttox 20/1 NH
Rise To Glory Hamilton Flat 20/1
Almargo Goodwood Flat 16/1
that is a snapshot, and from memory looking at results I know they were all obvs front runners that i thought would stay there, and they did. Winning from the front happens every day of the week on flat, AW and Jumps…the thing to develop over coming months, or to find out, is those tracks that have a track bias…maybe no coincidence that Aintree, Uttoxeter and Newton Abbot are tight turning tracks where it can be difficult to make up ground from the back.
So, if Segal’s point was about Front Runners in particular then he is talking nonsense in my opinion – if it was more generally about pace he probably has a point – ie over jumps you dont see too many pace burn ups where 5 or 6 horses go hell for leather up front and then fade away I dont think – although if you look at Hey Big Spenders win at weekend, he prob would have won anyway, but 3 or 4 horses took each other on up front for a long way and they all faded i think
Josh
Cheers for the answer Josh — 4OD’s website is a pain to navigate so I can’t find the last Morning Line to pinpoint what Segal actually said. Which is a moot point anyway as it wasn’t meant to invalidate your Pace picks — just interesting, as my ears pricked up as he mentioned pace so soon after I was reading your blog posts on it. Will be interesting to see if the Pace tool at Geegeez does highlight more winners in one type of race or another over a full season or so — I like to “systematise” my bets as much as possible (the lazy man’s betting!).
Oh well, that Spinaminnie, would be better off in a handicap imho, even while beginning to look as Andy Beyer would call a ‘sucker’ type (one that racks up a sequence of 2nd & 3rd’s), maybe headgear should be tried, that can often work for them.
But biggest figures on card achieved by first two & being four lengths clear of the third the 2nd should be noted for a similar race, especially if he turns up at Southwell (good sire for there).