Pace Wins The Race: Selection 28/11/14

Re-Cap 

Well a day of two halves. Less said about the Irish picks the better. Both very poor but at least the winner came from the three shortlisted – although saying the favourite has a chance isn’t the most original analysis! As it happened the money poured in for the fav and he won like a well handicapped horse.  The selection could have run the best race of his life and still would not have won.

The second selection was superb. Yes he came second but I put him up at 16/1 (20s for most of morning) as a horse with a decent chance whom I thought was overpriced. Eventually everyone else cottoned on to his prominent running style and love of the mud and he was smashed into 6/1 – another reason why you should use BOG bookies! And it always pays to look at the place terms, Bet365 were 1/4 odds the rest were 1/5 and every little helps in this game, it all adds up over time. There will be decent races for him to target provided it is soft – he bumped into one here and beat everything else hands down (one for the tracker).  Mullins has now sent 9 horses to Newbury with nothing to show for his endeavors  and I was happy with my analysis of his two. I know from my emails that some backed the Henderson horse, so well done. Again i know it is hindsight but the way he won made his price for most of the day look ok and given he apparently hasnt been training very well you would have to be impressed.

Tomorrow

12.55 Newbury 

ComeOnGinger – 1 point win 3/1 

I expect the selection to get a fairly uncontested lead – certainly he has made all the last twice so he will be up there. Looking at who may take him on – Wilton Milan has made the running before but not recently, so has Quick Decision but I think they will both try and sit off Comeonginger.

Comeonginger comes here the with best recent chase form on offer, is open to any amount of improvement and is an exciting prospect. If he were trained by a more ‘fashionable’ name he would be 6/4 fav  which makes 3/1 generous. Chris Gordon is a decent trainer and I’m glad he looks like he has at least a class 3 animal to go to war with – a potential Saturday horse which every small yard needs. His horses have been on fire in the last 14 days and although he only has a 3/39 record at the course you have to be wary with small yards and stats like that- i cant think he has sent many horses with this ones potential/form to the track. I dare say a lot of those were 16/1+ shots which makes that stat a bit irrelevant, but still something to note. He has jumped superbly – you cannot get around Kempton if you are a poor jumper – and has won with so much ease that he deserves his place at the top of the market. Unlike most of these he is in form, is open to improvement and will have all important track position. 3/1 is good enough for me. He does have a new jockey on board, this being a conditional race, and although i have no fears over him (very accomplished) I do like jockeys to ‘know a horse’- but then i dont know if he has sat on him at home, you would hope so.

So, what about the dangers. Wilton Milan hasn’t showed much at all but he is trained by Paul Nicholls hence the price. If he were trained by Chris Gordon he would be 12/1 say. I would be surprised if he won. He is open to improvement but needs to show it  on the track before i get involved. I am not interested in the bottom 4 on the card and I think the main dangers are Highway Code and Quick Decision.

The Hobbs team are in great form and Quick Decision is open to improvement, this being only his 3rd chase run. However the selection has better chase form and he has done it on the track. Quick Decision will need to improve to win this and at the moment he hasn’t shown enough signs of doing so. He also jumped right lto which would be a slight concern here.

Highway Code is the main danger for me. He won this race last year which in a way makes all recent form irrelevant – take Niceonefrankie at Sandown on Saturday as an example. Maybe he has been targeted at this – although it is only a C3 Race worth 6k to winner so it would be an odd race to ‘target’ – He has been running on the flat and over hurdles and he is only 1/13 over jumps. The 48 day break slightly concerns me – always an odd number suggesting something may not have been right, or he has just been kept for this. He has an excellent pilot which is a plus. However, I will go back to recent form. His last run was poor, he looks out of form and his chase strike rate isnt great. 6/1 is a decent price but I prefer Comeonginger, from a pace and form angle.

**UPDATE**

Well if that is soft ground then I am Jesus. 30 seconds above standard and the horse with 3 mile form grinds them into the ground. I would never have bet on the winner so am not annoyed i didnt back him. Rather annoyingly He was taken on and passed by a horse that was held up last time they met – i dont know if he sulked and/or didnt like the ground but he kept on admirably and is one to keep on side – back to a tighter track with shorter straight maybe, and i think he needs better ground. Never mind, I would bite your hand off to make +11.5 points every 7 days with Pace Wins The Race.

That is all for tomorrow.

Shortlist 

I looked at 3 other horses. Urban Code in the 2.55 is interesting but the ground is apparently Good and so far he has been best with juice in the ground. I am also not sure if he has the tactical speed to get out the front and stay there. But, i think he could be up there for a time. No bet for me though.

The 2.05 Newbury is a great Chase for the future. Coneygree is an out and out front runner and given how furious connections were that he was withdrawn on Vets advice at Fontwell made me think they had him spot on there, ready to run well. His hurdle form is the best on offer – a Grade 2 winner – and if he takes to fence and is fit he could cause an upset. I have had 1/2 a point on at 4/1 but he is not an official tip!

Finally the 6.55 Wolverhampton. Woodbridge could get an easy lead here and 7f looks to be his ideal trip. My concern was the break and I dont know if he will be fit. He is open to any amount of improvement and his breeding makes him stand out – related to Overturn and a Yorkshire Oaks winner. If fit he could make 7/1 look silly and I may have talked myself into another 1/2 point!

I plan on diving into some Saturday races tomorrow so will post something late afternoon hopefully.

Running Total

1/2 point on day if following advice and using B365

3/8 = +12.5 points