This is the first of what will be a daily post from Monday to Friday. The intention is to find one race and one horse that will benefit from the pace set up of the race. Primarily this will focus on those front-runners that I think can get out and stay out all the way to the winning post. Sometimes it may focus on a hold-up horse who could benefit from a ‘pace burn-up’.
I am not comfortable calling this a ‘tipping’ piece and I would not advise backing the selections just yet. This is essentially a public test of an approach I have been using successfully for the last 8 months or so. (which coincided with me joining a service that allowed me to visualise pace at the click of a button-more on that in due course 🙂 ) Over the next few weeks and months hopefully these posts makes some decent profits to advised odds. One thing is for sure, I will be betting every single one with my usual level stake, so if I post them, I fancy them! And if they lose, I lose!
My betting approach is to make money, not to find winners. The two are very different. This ‘angle in’ helps to highlight those horses who I think may be overpriced and worth a bet. I will select more losers than winners but over time I hope these posts make a decent profit. There is only one way to find out…
To start things of I have been greedy by selecting two ‘pace’ horses..in future it will probably just be one..
Gunna Be A Devil 6/1 – 1 point win
Looks to be the only consistent out and out front runner-hopefully he is sent to the front again, despite his age he is still unexposed,ground is fine, so is distance having won over 1f further, jockey is 1 from 2 on him,running in the right class,undulating tracks fine (won at Exeter) so is going left handed (won at Warwick), both career wins in November/December, field size is fine (horses are herd animals,some like single figure fields and open space, others like to be surrounded by their friends and hate having lots of space, others can just never pass the ‘leader; in front etc etc-bit more to it than that but you get the idea!) weight on his back is fine, so is his rating and last but not least he has a great record after a break. 3 runs returning after 121 days or more, 2 wins. They are his only career wins, so this is the time to catch him. (Finally – you can’t find all of that information at the click of a button on the Racing Post online – which is why I rarely/never use it!)
This is only his second chase run ever!! Yes that is a big worry. Will he jump well, is he a natural jumper, how will he get on? At least he is unexposed. And in truth all of the positives above, including the pace angle, allied to his price make him a bet for me. It is a chance i am happy to take.
Well due to time constraints I don’t think I will write lots on the opposition every single day. You will just have to trust that I have been as thorough with them as I have with highlighting the pros and cons of the selection. J Halley and Smiles For Miles have never won on the going (although couple of placed efforts), nor in the class or the distance. Flaming Charmer needs to prove he stays. Bendant is solid and the jockey booking catches the eye, but he has never won after a break of more than 60 days, although he has placed a few times, hopefully he is running on empty near the end. Tarabella has the same fitness concerns although the trainer can ready one, however he looks best going right handed and it looks like Feb/March is his time of year. Infact, crickey, he is 5 from 9 in February and a further place for 46 points profit at SP! He has just gone straight in the tracker and I will be lumping on in a few months time! Hopefully today is not his day. And those 5 wins in February have been for 3 different trainers! Yes, that is his month! (he is 11yo now, but let’s hope he can win in February one more time) Cruising Bye is 2/18 however there is nothing that really puts me off, on paper I have seen worse 9/1 shots. Fourovakind is 0 from 4 in chases and his most recent form is uninspiring, although he does like Chepstow.
All in all an open little race, however I think we have a decent horse on our side who is a decent price. If taking to fences (and yes he could clatter one or fall,that is chance we take but it is built into odds) he should be able to dictate and hopefully he does not see another rival. Chepstow is a galloping track so it may be hard to get away on the front end but hopefully he can do it! Of course if the jockey misjudges the pace and does to much we can all say goodbye to our betting slips.
Kapricorne 6/1 – 1 point win
Under Killian Moore the selection has been sent to the front on his last two starts and none of the horses behind have been able to catch him. He looks like the only out and out front runner in the race. Paul Moloney (who has a decent record when teaming up with S Leech at Chepstow) now takes the ride and although you think of him as a stalking ‘hold-up’ jockey he is very good from the front – I just hope and pray that he sends this one to the front. The good thing about pace angles is you know where you stand from pretty early in the race!- if he is held up it may be a wasted bet. But I can see no reason, given his form, why they would hold him up. So, he is in form, the ground is no problem, neither is the class nor the distance. There is no course winner in the field and in fact he is only one of three horses to have placed at the track (Always’s Bold and Hector’s House love this place but our horse has beaten Hector’s House 3 times already!)
Well there are not too many. Those into their handicapping and ratings will be spitting out their cereal because he has gone up 6lbs and he was ridden by a 5lb claimer last time out. That means he has gone up 11lbs in arguably a slightly stronger race. Surely I can’t back him? In truth I don’t care much for such things – until I see evidence that he is handicapped up to the hilt I will back him. He hasn’t proved that he cannot handle the rise in ratings and his price allows me to take a chance. This is only his 9th run in handicap hurdles and only (hopefully) his 3rd run from the front. So he is still open to improvement and he will relish the step back up to 3 miles. Based in his Ffos Las run he will keep finding for pressure and looks like a galloper. If he can handle that long, never ending straight, he should be fine at Chepstow.
I can’t quite believe Johns Luck is as short as he is. Clearly the price is based on his win last time out and he is open to any amount of improvement. However he needs to prove his liking for soft, and he doesn’t have a pace advantage. Now yes he has not proved he cannot handle soft, but he is a 5/4 shot, not 8/1, so it’s a no from me. On paper Always Bold has quite a bit in his favour and he is 3 from 4 in handicap hurdles in November. In fact there are not too many negatives at all. He may actually be worth a saver at 5/1 but that is not an official tip J Of the rest I couldn’t entertain any of the others, they would all have to do something they have never done or rarely have done before (win in ground, or class, or distance)
I think this race is between the fav (good one Josh, great insight!) Always Bold and our selection. I do think the fav is too short based on fact he needs to prove he likes soft and races at Taunton are never the strongest. I would be surprised if one of these didn’t win and maybe all three will be fighting out the finish. Given the pace angle I am happy with Kapricorne and I think I have just talked myself into a saver bet on Always Bold as well!
So yes, this will become a daily feature Monday to Friday, providing I can find a ‘pace angle’ and a horse that can take advantage. Some days there may be no post but I will say if that is the case. Not every post will be this long but hopefully this gives you a flavour of my approach to every ‘form based’ bet that I place. Often it is the same approach for other races minus pace element (ie I don’t just back Front Runners) and plus a few more factors like trends for big races and other stats. In addition to the 10 or so systems I am running at any one time, some of which you have already received.
Fingers crossed for a winning start although I never jump for joy when they win and I never cry when they lose. Racing is a long game, and if you want short term profits, short priced horses to give you a fix, you wont find them here 🙂
p.s comments/questions/scrutiny is always welcome, and encouraged.