Well well well, that was a day that just got better and better. I was looking forward to the final 3 races and they delivered. It was a shame Claret Cloak didnt win but he finished a valiant 3rd. Maybe Cheltenham just took his finishing edge away. Uxizandre was a highlight and to top it off with the smooth travelling Doctor Harper, was fantastic. On the blog, strictly following the advice where I advised points, you would have been 13 points up. So £130 to £10 stakes. I managed to land the placepot, which only paid 10/1, and I have to admit to throwing a bit more on Uxizandre. All in all a great day. And I should warn you, I am not holding back tomorrow. I have a few really really strong fancies.
Race 1
Amore Alato 14/1 1pt EW
An interesting race where the favourite, Josses Hill, has a very strong chance. I wouldnt put you off but I dont want to take 2/1 in this type of race. I may have a saver on. And I may have a a cheeky forecast, Joses Hill to beat Amore Alato. I am hoping Almore Alato gets a masterclass ride from Richard Johnson from the front. He could well get away from this field. He fits a lot of the key trends and stats. He has also beaten Sgt Reckless twice, yet he is nearly 3 times the price. This could get the day off to a flyer!
Race 2
O’Faolins Boy – 4 points WIN 11/4 (paddy power)
Quite simply, as the 4 points suggests (prob the most I will even put on one horse) I am extremely confident that this horse will demolish this field. Now, the one unknown, as I keep on saying, is whether he is over his Cheltenham exploits. If he is, he will win. Simple. I tipped him and backed him at 16/1 when he won at Cheltenham. Amazingly, he lost a shoe that day, and another one twisted and he still won. He stays, he stays longer than the mother in law, to use a tired cliche. Wonderful Charm and Don Cossak need to prove they stay, and I am not sure that they will. The price doesnt make me want to find out. Holywell falls down on two massive trends. Firstly no winner in 10 years has had more than 5 runs over fences, and he ran in a handicap last time. only 1 of 10 winners had ran in a handicap LTO. Infact, only 3 horses from 70 have managed to win in a G1 and G2 Chase at the last 10 Aintree festivals having ran in a handicap last time out. At 3/1, not for me. The others all have major doubts. I think he will win well, and have backed him accordingly.
Race 3
Module 3pts WIN 5/1 (back with Paddy Power, who will refund stakes if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in this race – bar a fall, this horse should be top 3!)
Rajdhani Express 1 pts win 5/1
These two top the trends and will do for me. The paddy power offer has made me be bold and put an extra point on module. I really like this horse, the step up in trip will be up his street and I think he has a very very strong chance. If Module and O’Faolins Boy both lose, it could be a long day!! RJ is the other that makes the trends shortlist, and given Henderson’s strong record in the race, is worth a bet.
Race 4
Lost Legend 1/2 point win
Your Busy 1/2 point EW 16/1.
Soll 1/2 point EW 33/1
Really really tough race. It is a unique test which makes looking at past form a bit tricky! These two are ok on the trends. i like fact Your Busy was 2nd over CD earlier in the year. Since that race I think he will have been aimed at this race. Very tough race and not one to bet big in. I may have a small nibble on Soll and Massinis Maguire, but both have some big trends to overcome. I dont expect to find the winner in this race, and it is one to just enjoy,as watching horses jump these fences is brilliant.
** UPDATE** On further consideration I cant leave Soll alone EW at 33/1. He was 7th in last years National where he faded a couple form home. He also won over this distance earlier in his career and is a prominent runner. Without knowing the trainers plans, I am starting to believe that this race may have been the target since that run! His form this year, in that context and with that mindset, looks ‘interesting’. The ground may be too quick however, and he may get outpaced, but with 5 places to aim at and 33/1, why not have a dart! Your Busy should go well and maybe EW would be a better bet than win only!
Race 5
Seeyouatmidnight 2pts win 9/2
Capote 1pt win 10/1
Again these two fit the main profile of past winners, and Jonjo has had 1 winner and 1 place from 3 horses he has ran in race, Owner likes a winner at this festival and Capote could be anything. 10/1 is an OK price to find out. I really like seeyouatmidnight, he is the proven class horse in the race. 9/2 is an insult, and that is because of the trainer is not well known. This horse is tough and will hopefully lead them a merry dance.
Race 6
Mister Hotelier 1pt EW 16/1 (make sure you get 1/4 odds 4 places)
Another tough race, as most of them are! This irish raider is interesting for a trainer and jockey that are not seen over here too often. He learnt to settle in his last race, and if he does here, I think he could run a big race. Party Rock and Pass The Time were close to shortlist and I may throw some shrapnel (£2.5) at these. Attaglance could run another bold race but not many horses win handicaps at festivals with top weight. Open race, and hopefully get run for our money.
Race 6
Princess Tara 1 pt win 14/1
Very open as you would expect. I analysed this race, and bet, withing about 4 minutes. A straight forward mini system with Peter Bowen runners. So, his runners, that have ran within last 28 days, and who are up in class. At this meeting he has had 20 such runners and 6 winners. This horse ticks that box, and will do for me!
I have laid out 18.5 points on the above. Maybe in part fueled by such a great day yesterday. But this meeting only comes round once a year and I would rather go for it! If you followed todays selections, you may want to keep some profit, or just bet the 13 points you won today. I would say that I really like O Faolins Boy, Module and Seeyouatmidnight.
Good luck whatever you do.
