Ayr Silver Cup : 2.25
15/372, 60p
15/15 NOT drawn stalls 12-19 (were: 0/117, 8p)
15/15 sent off 33/1 or shorter SP (were not: 0/64,0p)
15/15 max distance had WON over in career was between 6-7f (was not: 0/72, 8p)
15/15 had 13< runs in prev 365 days (14+ : 0/46, 4p)
15/15 had 0-2 wins in prev 365 days (3+ : 0/69, 10p)
10/15 aged 4-5
Other
- Horse wore blinkers: 0/30,0p
- Horse ran at Thirsk, Ascot or Chester LTO: 0/72, 9p
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Applying the trends…
Possibly a bit of a so-so profile, but if the 15/15 stats hold, ignoring draw and odds for now, would leave a long list of eleven…
Brooklyn Nine Nine, Paws For Thought, Aramram, Lucky Man, rhythm N Hooves, Sergeant Pep, Jenever, Mr Wagyu, Admiral D, Be Proud, Twelfth Knight
IF the stalls stat holds (being in that middle range hasn’t been a positive), applied to the list above, would point to six, IF upholding…
Lucky Man, Paws For Thought, Jenever, Rhythm N Hooves, Mr Wagyu, Be Proud
Of those with 2-5 career wins: Lucky Man, Jenever, Rhythm N Hooves
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Roberto Carlo
- Brooklyn Nine Nine, Rock Opera, Emperors Son, Admiral D
- Bergerac
- Sergeant Pep
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Ayr Gold Cup: 3.35
17/394, 64p
17/17 sent off 28/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 0/113,4p)
17/17 had 11< runs in prev 365 days (12+ : 0/56, 8p)
17/17 had placed at least once last four starts (had not: 0/68, 4p)
17/17 had 8< runs this calendar year (9+ : 0/72, 12p)
17/17 ran within 60 days (61+ : 0/40,2p)
16/17 aged 6 or younger (older: 1/72, 7p)
16/17 between 3lb-10lb higher than last win (were not: 1/155, 15p)
16/17 Top 3 at least once last three starts (were not: 1/112,7p)
16/17 had 2-7 career wins (did not: 1/82, 9p)
15/17 horse aged 3-5 when last winning (6+ : 2/133,16p)
13/17 had 1-3 wins in handicaps (did not: 4/223, 32p)
Other
- Horse wore tongue-tie: 0/26,3p
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Applying the trends…
Arguably another ‘so so’ trends race, but the 17/17 stats, ignoring odds, only get us so far, that’s IF upholding of course, leaving a long list of fifteen…
American Affair, Ramazan, Lethal Levi, Mostabshir, Northern Express, Orazio, Strike Red, Pilgrim, Korker, Sergeant Wilko, Glenfinnan, Jehanger, Commanche Falls, Aramis Grey, Tinto
Applying the 16/17 stats , again IF upholding, would point to eight…
American Affair, Ramazan, Orazio, Northern Express, Pilgrim, Glenfinnan, Sergeant Wilko, Jehangeer
Applying the other two stats, would have found 12/17 winners (12/71, 23p, +130 BFSP) , inc 7 of the 8… and would point to five…
Ramazan, Orazio, Pilgrim, Glenfinnan, Jehangeer
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Ramazan, Strike Red, Dare To Hope
- Room Service, Aleezdancer, Sergeant Wilki, Jehangeer
- Kings Lynn, Fivethousandtoone
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