Introduction
It’s that time of year again! The winter jumpers are building up and many will be ready to go in Sept, with many more from mid Oct onwards. As always I like to flag a few ‘monthly trainers’, the daily qualifiers of which will be posted in the Members’ posts Tues-Sat and shared in the private Telegram group. September>December is usually the most profitable period for these, usually with ‘Team Twister’ to the fore in Sept/Oct, before Venetia takes over for what is usually a profitable November and sometimes December. That can all depend on how wet it has been, or will be in the next 6-8 weeks, and the amount of proper work, and grass work, these trainers can get into them, especially VW.
Twister had a lull for a time in what is usually Nigel’s best part of the year, but Willy appears to have helped, maybe just a change of horses/owners/new influx also, and it appears to be a time of year they target again – they have usually been ‘the’ yard to get plenty of their string ready early, and fit at home. We shall see if that’s the case again!
As always with such angles, the ‘sample size’ can be small enough, but there is logic to all of the ‘rules’ and in part we are banking on the trainers being ‘creatures of habit’. Of course, assessing current yard form can be important also.
There’s an angle for Team Twister below and also a couple of other trainers. You may decide to ‘back blind’ for fun money, or use as a ‘way in’, but hopefully you find them useful…
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All angles relate to September only, National Hunt, and I’ve looked at the last full 5 years.
Do note the betfair ‘place’ profit also…
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Nigel & Willy Twiston Davies
- Horse runs previous 90 days: 0
- Horse had 0-1 runs at the track previously in career
- Odds: 10/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/9,3p bigger)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 45 | 14 | 31.11 | 13.22 | 30 | 66.67 | 23.66 | 20.9 | 1.18 |
| 2024 | 11 | 4 | 36.36 | 2.5 | 10 | 90.91 | 3.54 | 10.44 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | 5 | 55.56 | 15 | 8 | 88.89 | 20.89 | 8.64 | 2.21 |
| 2022 | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 4.67 | 4 | 50 | 6.4 | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| 2021 | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | -6.45 | 4 | 50 | -6.29 | 1.55 | 0.65 |
| 2020 | 9 | 1 | 11.11 | -2.5 | 4 | 44.44 | -0.88 | -1.14 | 0.5 |
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Oliver Geenall & Josh Guerriero
- All Standard (non novice) Handicap Chases and Handicap Hurdles
- Odds; 33/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/6,0p bigger)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 67 | 13 | 19.4 | 67.63 | 23 | 34.33 | 92.91 | 17.57 | 1.45 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 30 | 15.5 | 0.29 | 0.8 |
| 2023 | 15 | 3 | 20 | 41 | 3 | 20 | 45.71 | 9.55 | 1.74 |
| 2022 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 6.88 | 7 | 70 | 8.4 | 5.42 | 1.76 |
| 2021 | 14 | 2 | 14.29 | 2.25 | 4 | 28.57 | 7.61 | -2.82 | 1.43 |
| 2020 | 18 | 3 | 16.67 | 10.5 | 6 | 33.33 | 15.69 | 5.13 | 1.3 |
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Neil Mulholland
- Horse Age 5, 6 or 7
- Horse had 0-2 career wins
- Odds: 25/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/4,0p bigger)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 63 | 18 | 28.57 | 49.6 | 34 | 53.97 | 68.84 | 24.2 | 1.57 |
| 2024 | 14 | 4 | 28.57 | 35.62 | 8 | 57.14 | 43.51 | 13.33 | 2.03 |
| 2023 | 11 | 3 | 27.27 | 6.33 | 4 | 36.36 | 8.9 | -2.21 | 1.53 |
| 2022 | 12 | 4 | 33.33 | 4.4 | 7 | 58.33 | 8.37 | 3.21 | 1.71 |
| 2021 | 11 | 4 | 36.36 | 6 | 7 | 63.64 | 8.34 | 5.06 | 1.75 |
| 2020 | 15 | 3 | 20 | -2.75 | 8 | 53.33 | -0.27 | 4.81 | 1.02 |
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Thanks for reading,
Josh
p.s I plan to release a ‘winter season ticket’ at some point in early late Oct/Early November, taking us through to end of Punchestown Festival. There will be daily stats content (Tues>Sat) in which to give you some handy ‘starting points’, plenty of ‘big race trends/shortlist’ for the ‘big’ handicaps, as always with a big focus on Cheltenham Festival week, ending with Punchestown.
And of course my own tips/selections/notes: Last year’s jumps season, from Chept in mid Oct through to end of Punchestown:
337 tips / 49 winners / 14.54% win SR / 23.22% ROI / +82 points (+£820 to £10 bets)
All good fun, hopefully I’ll see some of you inside again when the time comes 🙂
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