The Grand National: RTP Trends (complete)

A look at The Grand National on Saturday from Aintree, using my own approach/profiling, with the help of Horse Race Base. As always, use, abuse and ignore as you please! With any luck there is a ‘winning’ profile below that gives us a more manageable shortlist to attack. At some point pre Saturday, post final decs, I will ‘apply’ these trends and see if they help or not.

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The Grand National

12/461,48p (since fence changes in 2013)

12/12 NOT rated OR 151-158 (were: 0/130,13p) (could be random)

• 159+ : 4/41,11p (inc last 2)
• 143-150: 7/238,21p

12/12 NOT 4lb-9lb higher than last win: (were: 0/164,12p) (could be random)

• 7/12 Official Rating 1lb lower to 3lb higher than last win (inc last 3, 7/121,18p)
• 2lb lower or more, below last win: 0/55,5p

12/12 had RUN at G1 or G2 level in career, as defined by HorseRaceBase (had not: 0/62,3p)

12/12 horses max distance career win to date was not 3m-3m .5f (was: 0/108,5p)

12/12 had 0-1 runs over fences at Aintree prev in career (both tracks) (2+ : 0/135,6p)

12/12 had 0-5 places (inc wins) in handicap chases (6+ : 0/113,5p)

11/12 had finished 1st or 2nd at least once last 3 starts (had not: 1/158,10p)

• 9/12 had won at least once last 3, inc 7 of last 8

11/12 had never ran over 4m1f or further in career prev (had: 1/154,16p, prev winner, Tiger Roll 2019)

11/12 had been ridden by today’s jockey at least x1 (had not: 1/119,7p, back in 2014)

11/12 had 1-9 runs in handicap chases (did not: 1/168,13p, winner 2013)

11/12 had won at least once in last 365 days (had not: 1/216,19p)

10/12 Aged 9 or younger (9 of last 10 Aged 8-9)

• 7YO: 1/31,3p
• 8YO: 6/98,15p
• 9YO: 3/125,12p
• 10YO: 0/107,8p
• 11YO: 2/61,7p
• 12YO+ : 0/39,3p
• 10YO+ : 2/207,18p (0/164, 13p last 10 years)

10/12 had 8 or fewer runs in handicaps, inc last 10 winners (9+ : 2/243,16p)

10/12 had won at least once this season (had not: 2/237,21p, no winner in last 8. Caution, did inc 2nd to 5th last year, and 2nd,4th,5th year before)

8/12 had 3-4 runs this season (8/231,31p)

• 0-2: 0/92,5p
• 5-6: 0/108,7p
• 7+ : 4/30,5p

7/12 had 11-19 career runs (7/166,23p) (inc the last 5 winners)

7/10 had 7-10 chase runs (7/111,16p) (inc the last 5 winners)

Other

• Top Rated: 0/12,1p
• Horse 7-10lb below race high: 0/64,7p
• Lowest Rated: 0/36,0p
• Bottom Weights: 0/39,0p
• Horse carried 11st-11-4: 0/76,8p
• Horse had 0 runs prev 90 days: 0/31,2p
• Horse had 0-2 runs in the last 365 days: 0/62,3p
• Horse had run in race prev: 1/128,15p (winner, Tiger Roll, 2019) 15/2 or shorter SP, 1/5,3p
• Horse had 4 career wins only: 0/68,7p (could be random)
• Horse had 5+ handicap wins: 0/55,3p
• Horse PU last start: 0/63,3p
• Tracks LTO: To date, 12/12 ran at either: Chelt (6/144,19p), FairyH (2/33,8p), x1 Naas, Kelso, Leop, Warwick

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Trainers (to have won race last 17 years)

• W Mullins: 2/57,9p
• G Elliott: 2/50,7p
• L Russell: 2/6,2p
• x1: Dr Newland, O Sherwood, D Pipe, M Morris, Henry D-B, V Williams, Jonjo O’Neill, D McCain, S Smith, E Mullins, P Nicholls.

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Applying the trends…

Ignoring the first two 12/12 stats above for the moment, and applying the other four… had run at G1/2 level in career, max distance won NOT between 3m-3m 1/2f, 0-1 chase runs at track and 0-5 places (inc wins) in handicaps, would have found 12/172, 31p (of the 48p total), and IF upholding would point to a long list of 16…

Panic Attack, Grangeclare West, Johnnywho, Captain Cody, Quai De Bourbon, Gorgeous Tom, Champ Kiely, Jordans, Favori De Champdou, High Class Hero, Three Card Brag, The Real Whacker, Mr Vango, Firefox, Marble Sands, Amirite

IF the ‘not’ 151-158 ratings band stat holds, it would leave 7 from that list. It could be a random stat, or maybe the capper has those in that band, those rated lower with more in hand, those higher with the class to overcome the weight – maybe some logic there, in any case, if it held…

Panic Attack, Grangeclare West, Johnnywho, Jordans, Firefox, Amirite, Marble Sands

IF the ‘not’ 4-9lb higher than last win stat holds, we’d be down to four…

Panic Attack, Grangeclare West, Johnnywho, Jordans

Going back to the initial long list, if ignoring the ratings pointers above, and if upholding of course, and looking through some of the other stats, and where the numbers still look solid, 1st or 2nd at least once last 3, and 1-9 runs in handicap chases, would point to ten…

Panic Attack, Grangeclare West, Johnnywho, Gorgeous Tom, High Class hero, Three Card Brag, Mr Vango, Firefox, The Real Whacker, Marble Sands

Of those, with 8 or fewer runs in handicaps… a profile applied to the above ten, and which has found 10/12, and all the last ten, would point to seven…

Grangeclare West, Johnnywho, Gorgeous Tom, High Class hero, Three Card Brag, Firefox, The Real Whacker,

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Trainers (to have won race last 17/with runners)

• All of Mullins
• All of Elliott’s
• Johnnywho
• Montys Star/ Gorgeous Tom/ Amirite