To Sandown…
Two of the big handicap hurdles in focus this week, firstly with a more in-depth look at the Imperial Cup, followed by the EBF Final…
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2.27pm: The Imperial Cup
17/305, 63p
- 17/17 OR 124-136 (were not: 0/94,18p)
- 17/17 were 2lb to 18lb higher than bottom rated (were not: 0/77,15p)
- 17/17 carried 10-2-11-4 (exc jockey claims) (did not: 0/70,14p)
- 16/17 sent off 20/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/126,10p)
- 16/17 had 0-1 runs at track (2+ : 1/51,6p)
- 16/17 had 1-5 career wins (did not: 1/66,6p)
- 16/17 had 0-3 handicap wins (did not: 1/49,7p)
- 16/17 had 1-4 wins wearing same headgear as today (inc no-headgear) (did not: 1/94,12p)
- 15/17 had 1-2 hurdle wins in career (did not: 2/142, 26p: 0 – 0/20,3p; 3-4 – 2/102,19p, 5+ – 0/20,4p) (caution: both those winners the last two renewals with Go Dante, who ‘may’ prove to be an outlier)
Other
- Horse not bottom weights or Top 3 in weights: were 0/90,18p
- Ran in a chase LTO: 0/16,2p
- Track LTO: Taunt (0/20,3p); Muss (0/11,1p); Winc (0/14,1p); Donc (0/11,1p)
- Horse ran 15< days ago: 0/42,6p
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Brace For Landing
- Go Dante, Fingle Bridge
- Afadil, Nardaran
- Top Jimmy, Spirits Bay
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Applying the trends…
Now, using the OR/weight pointers above, would have found 17/17 and if just focussed on those for now, would leave a longer list of nine…
Wreckless Eric, Rubber Ball, Jack Hyde, Top Jimmy, Gooloogong, Messerschmitt, Spirits Bay, Nardaran, Bubble Dubi
Of those with 0-1 runs at track, 1-5 career wins, 0-3 handicap wins would have found 15/17 and all prev 9 winners, and IF upholding…
Wreckless Eric, Rubber Ball, Jack Hyde, Top Jimmy, Gooloogong, Messerschmitt, Bubble Dubi
And a full application of the main pointers above, would have found 13/17 (although not the last two)…
Top Jimmy, Gooloogong, Messerschmitt
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If deciding to Ignore the weight/ratings related trends, which it can sometimes be useful to treat separately/with caution, especially as the top end quality of the jumps horse population may be ‘so-so’ at the moment/or declining (and it can impact some of these historical pointers, the top rated horses rated lower etc, eg a top rated winner of Betfair Hurdle this season, which is very rare…) If I just focus on more of the horse profile pointers, ignoring odds, applying the 16/17 stats would have found 15/17 winners (inc the last 9) and IF upholding would help cut the field in half, with a long list of 11…
Mondo Man, Rubber Ball, General Briar, Jack Hyde, Top Jimmy, Gooloogong, Star of Guiting, Game Colours, Messerschimitt, Bubble Dubi, Mr MCloughlan
Those with 1-2 hurdle wins to name in career has been a useful focus (for all a stat blown away last two renewals with Go Dante), but if a profile that returns to being of use… applied to those above…
Mondo Man, General Briar, Top Jimmy, Gooloogong, Game Colours, Messerschmitt
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1.50 Sandown: EBF Final
18/305, 71p
Not a full trends profile for this but if looking at those aged 4-6, OR 122-132, 3lb-14lb higher than bottom rated, top 2 at least once last three starts, 0-1 runs in handicap hurdles and ran in a non-handicap clast start, it would have found 18/18 (18/115 runners, 39p) and IF upholding, would leave us looking at eight…
Kakas Cousin, Laguna Beach, Tennessee Tango, Cinquenta, Draco Malfoy, Rathkenny, Jurys In, Get On George
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Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Four Springs
- Laguna Beach
- Gentleman Toboot
- Cinquenta
- The Boss Bear