Trends
11/427, 44p (11 renewals since the fences changed in 2013, other changes since then of course inc a reduction in field size from last year)
- 11/11 had 0-1 chase runs at Aintree (2+ : 0/128, 6p)
- 11/11 NOT rated 151-158 (were: 0/114,12p) (caution over this one)
- 11/11 had 0-5 places (inc wins) in handicap chases (6+ : 0/108,5p)
- 11/11 did not PU on last start (did: 0/62,3p)
- 11/11 did not run in a G2 LTO (did: 0/61,3p)
- 11/11 ran in race for 5YO+ LTO (did not: 0/61,3p)
- 11/11 ran in a C1/2 LTO (did not: 0/48,2p)
- 11/11 had RUN at G1/2 level in career at least once (had not: 0/57,3p)
- 11/11 NOT bottom weights (were: 0/38,0p)
- 11/11 had 1+ run in prev 90 days (had not: 0/30,2p)
- 10/11 Top 2 at least once last 3 starts (were not: 1/148,10p)
- 10/11 had never run beyond 4m 1/2 F in career prev (had run 4m1f+ : 1/148)
- 10/11 had never run in race before (had: 1/123 Tiger Roll, prev winner)
- 10/11 (inc the last ten) had 9< runs in handicap chases (10+ : 1/146, 10p)
- 10/11 ran LH on last start (RH: 1/124,10p, inc last years winner, who ran at FairyH, 1/30,7p)
- 10/11 Top 6 on last start (were not: 1/150, 10p)
- 9/11 aged 7-9
- 11YO: 2/56,7p
- 10YO: 0/101,8p
- 12YO+ : 0/37,3p
***
Applying The Trends
Looking at the 11/11 stats (ignoring 151-158 for now, one of those strange stats maybe), would have found 11/104 runners, +224 BFSP, and IF this profile holds, we’d be looking at…
I Am Maximum, Iroko, Minella Cocooner, Hyland, Nick Rockett, Stay Away Fay, Twig, Royale Pagaille, Horantzau Dairy
IF the ‘not’ rated 151-158 stat held, it would point to…
I Am Maximus, Hyland, Nick Rockett, Twig, Stay Away Fay, Horantzau Dairy, Royale Pegaille
Going back to the first set of trends, applying the Top 2 at least once last three, would have found 10/11 and would point to four…
I Am Maximus, Iroko, Hyland, Nick Rockett (all four also 9< handicap chase runs)
*
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- All of Mullins x6
- All Nicholls x5
- All Elliott x5
- Senior Chief, Minella Indo
- Monbeg Genius
- Royale Pegaille