CHELTENHAM:
First up, do read my Free Festival Trends Report HERE >>>
*
Just the one trends race this Sat…
*
2.25 Sand: Imperial Cup
16/288, 59p
- 15/16 sent off 20/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/121,10p)
- 16/16 OR 124-136 (were not: 0/85,17p) (always more caution with OR stats imo placed numbers solid)
- 16/16 had 1-3 hurdle wins (did not: 0/57, 9p)
- 15/16 had 1-2 hurdle wins (did not: 1/131,22p)
- 16/16 6lb or below top rated (were not: 0/31,8p)
- 16/16 carried 11-4 or less (11-5+ : 0/46, 10p)
- 16/16 had not run in race previously (had: 0/36, 3p)
- 16/16 had 0-2 handicap hurdle wins (3+ : 0/34,6p)
- 15/16 had 0-1 track runs (2+ : 1/49,6p)
- 15/16 had 0-1 hurdle runs at the course (2+ : 1/46, 6p)
- 14/16 had 1-4 career wins (did not: 2/91,12p)
- 14/16 ran in a handicap LTO (non-handicap: 2/80,12p)
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Bo Zenith
- Go Dante (last yrs winner)
- Spirits Bay, Big Ginge
- Afadil, Sorceleur
- Knickerbockerglory
*
Applying the trends…
A bit of a ‘so-so’ trends race maybe, a lot of those 0/X numbers/sample sizes small enough maybe, place stats solid, but in any case, if I ignore the OR stat for now, and odds, and apply the other 16/16 stats… would point to a longlist/shortlist of seven… (16/175, 40p, +110 BFSP)
Bo Zenith, Spirits Bay, Wreckless Eric, To Chase A Dream, Were Red And Blue, King William Rufus, Sorceleur
IF the 124-136 OR stat holds, it would point to just three…
Wreckless Eric, Spirits Bay, To Chase A Dream
Going back to the ‘longlist’, applying the other stats would have found 13/16 (and the last 8) and IF upholding, would point to five…
Bo Zenith, Wreckless Eric, To Chase A Dream, King William Rufus, Sorceleur
*
END