Last winter jumps season’s ‘monthly trainers’ pulled in around +96 points profit, to 1 point win bets, BFSP.
So far, this season hasn’t gone that well. October was a bit of a ‘so-so’ start for win only players to BFSP, the four trainers combined: 11/40, 12p, -1.78 to BFSP, +9.51 betfair place. On this occasion, taking morning odds would have added around +10 points or so, if not more, as many were well backed.
It was a poor November this year for ‘win only’ players, a -12.68 loss to BFSP, sending the points total down to +81.5 BFSP since the start of last season. November is usually a decent month but Tom Lacey (who was new, -12) and Fergal O’B (-.8.48) let me down. Maybe just VW/KB next year…Venetia did ok, the ground probably not as soft as ideal (+4.44), as did Kim Bailey (+3.36). Backing to early prices would have improved those results by a few points. So, a bit ‘meh’, but that’s the game. They finished on 17/81, 37p. Plenty ran well, and +8.91 of BFSP Place profit, which I’ve started keeping an eye on. That makes Oct/Nov +18.42 points in ‘place’ only betting.
December was even worse sadly. Evan Williams (0/7,4p, -7), Venetia Williams (5/28, 12p, -11.83) and Rebecca Menzies (0/13,3p, -13) all failing to repeat recent years. Maybe by this point the market had corrected for Venetia’s runners, and Becky never really fired. The ‘place’ profit for the month was -0.62 points.
That takes Oct, Nov and Dec to: -46.29 points . Urgh.
I haven’t yet undone last season’s good work, but that ‘two season’ running jumps total now: +49.71 points. Still solid enough for my ‘interest’ monthly trainer stakes, but mildly painful so far this season.
The Betfair ‘place’ market, BSP, this season: +17.8 points
Obviously my ‘monthly trainers’ haven’t fired just yet – maybe said trainers have just had a poor time of it, full stop, with some pondering over the research/approach, or the weather has played some part – a very dry autumn for the most part, plenty of tracks on the quick side in Oct/Nov, and also maybe some impact on horses’ prep. Of course, we now have a cold/snowy spell, with meetings being abandoned, which may affect things this month also, both on course (races more competitive as the month goes on/horses desperate to run) and off course, some yard’s gallops/facilities possibly affected, and ability to keep/get horses fit/keep them ticking over. Time will tell.
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Onto January where hopefully we can have an upturn in ‘monthly trainer’ form…
As always, it can help to assess current trainer form.
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Chris Gordon
- January
- All NH Handicaps
- Odds: 28/1 or shorter SP
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 120 | 26 | 21.67 | 127.43 | 43 | 35.83 | 168.32 | 19.52 | 1.75 |
| 2024 | 13 | 2 | 15.38 | 33 | 3 | 23.08 | 45.43 | 2.74 | 2.27 |
| 2023 | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 27.75 | 5 | 62.5 | 28.23 | 7.39 | 2.61 |
| 2022 | 21 | 5 | 23.81 | 12.5 | 6 | 28.57 | 16.38 | -2.58 | 1.57 |
| 2021 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 2.74 | -1.55 | 2.13 |
| 2020 | 21 | 4 | 19.05 | 21.5 | 7 | 33.33 | 34.78 | 2.82 | 1.65 |
| 2019 | 12 | 2 | 16.67 | -3.67 | 5 | 41.67 | -3.17 | -0.76 | 1.28 |
| 2018 | 17 | 6 | 35.29 | 38.1 | 9 | 52.94 | 47.56 | 8.03 | 2.39 |
| 2017 | 24 | 3 | 12.5 | -3.75 | 7 | 29.17 | -3.64 | 3.43 | 1.12 |
Chris’ stats this season (24/25) are in line with last season so far, both of those a bit below his two seasons before that, but gives hope he may fire in the odd winner this month. Those at shorter odds have been profitable but he does fire in some biggies, which are maybe hard to find on paper/in the form book. The team have been in solid enough form, the December just gone their best in terms of number of winners & SR, since 2019. (25/1<, 5/29,9p)
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Neil Mulholland
- January
- All NH Handicaps
- Odds: 12/1 or shorter SP
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 120 | 32 | 26.67 | 59 | 57 | 47.5 | 88.29 | 12.14 | 1.65 |
| 2025 | 5 | 3 | 60 | 3.25 | 3 | 60 | 3.94 | -0.62 | 2.07 |
| 2024 | 15 | 2 | 13.33 | -6.25 | 8 | 53.33 | -4.99 | 1.11 | 0.85 |
| 2023 | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | -4.25 | 2 | 25 | -4.06 | -4.77 | 0.92 |
| 2022 | 14 | 3 | 21.43 | 5.5 | 8 | 57.14 | 10.24 | 5.48 | 1.46 |
| 2021 | 9 | 3 | 33.33 | 0.12 | 4 | 44.44 | 0.43 | -3.12 | 1.28 |
| 2020 | 16 | 6 | 37.5 | 28.5 | 9 | 56.25 | 37.33 | 7.63 | 2.94 |
| 2019 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 5.68 | 0.72 | 1.23 |
| 2018 | 14 | 3 | 21.43 | 1.5 | 5 | 35.71 | 2.88 | -2.24 | 1.47 |
| 2017 | 19 | 8 | 42.11 | 26.63 | 11 | 57.89 | 36.85 | 7.93 | 2.22 |
With any luck Neil Mulholland ‘is back’, a decent trainer, who had a torrid couple of years against his usual high standards, I think due to a very dodgy batch of hay, which may have affected the string for at least 18 months, his SR dropping off a cliff at times. Still, in the two seasons before this he still ticked along at 11%, for all some low SRs in that time, but this season, 24/25 (from May 1st), he’s back up to 16%, which hopefully bodes well. I’m using those issues as some sort of ‘excuse’ for 2023 and 2024 above, for all it wasn’t horrendous, and small numbers of course. He always used to to do fairly well in Jan and has had three shorties go in already. Maybe that’s him done for the month, we’ll see.
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Robert Walford
- January
- All NH Handicaps
- Odds: 16/1 or shorter SP
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 99 | 22 | 22.22 | 48.82 | 49 | 49.49 | 75.5 | 36.39 | 1.41 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 2.33 | 1 | 50 | 2.1 | -0.59 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 16 | 1 | 6.25 | -11.67 | 6 | 37.5 | -11.64 | 2.56 | 0.32 |
| 2023 | 9 | 2 | 22.22 | 4.91 | 6 | 66.67 | 11.67 | 8.13 | 1.09 |
| 2022 | 14 | 4 | 28.57 | 15.5 | 8 | 57.14 | 21.16 | 6.97 | 1.85 |
| 2021 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 13.25 | 4 | 40 | 17.12 | -0.57 | 2.65 |
| 2020 | 19 | 4 | 21.05 | 9.5 | 9 | 47.37 | 12.8 | 5.03 | 1.33 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20 | 6.75 | 6 | 60 | 10.72 | 6.11 | 1.46 |
| 2018 | 12 | 2 | 16.67 | -1.25 | 5 | 41.67 | 0.2 | 1.42 | 1.4 |
| 2017 | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 9.5 | 4 | 57.14 | 11.37 | 7.32 | 2.47 |
Robert Walford is usually consistent this month (as he was in December this year) with a shorty going in already, with 2024 his duffer and below usual standards. Maybe the yard was out of sorts, or the handicapper had a grip on all his runners in the period. His yard is having a good season, 24/25 ticking along at 18.5%, which is is his best win SR since the 14/15 season, to date anyway. Plenty of time for that to drop off of course! Hopefully not just yet.
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Sue Smith & J Parkinson
- January
- All NH Handicaps
- Odds: 16/1 or shorter SP
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 126 | 34 | 26.98 | 62.36 | 58 | 46.03 | 81.25 | 24.99 | 1.56 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10 | -5.5 | 3 | 30 | -5.54 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| 2023 | 13 | 1 | 7.69 | -8.5 | 6 | 46.15 | -7.77 | 2.36 | 0.53 |
| 2022 | 18 | 4 | 22.22 | 5 | 7 | 38.89 | 6.52 | 0.39 | 1.55 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| 2020 | 19 | 7 | 36.84 | 15.04 | 11 | 57.89 | 19.15 | 3.19 | 1.82 |
| 2019 | 12 | 7 | 58.33 | 39.25 | 8 | 66.67 | 47.19 | 13.25 | 3.43 |
| 2018 | 29 | 8 | 27.59 | 8.32 | 16 | 55.17 | 10.54 | 12.35 | 1.38 |
| 2017 | 21 | 6 | 28.57 | 12.75 | 7 | 33.33 | 15.16 | -3.27 | 1.67 |
Including Sue Smith again is arguably the riskiest one of the lot here, a ‘monthly trainer’ who was included when I first started posting these, I think back in 2019. 2022 wasn’t too bad either but then the form of the yard more generally started to tail off a bit. I don’t know if gallop issues, owners moving on (or too old), a lack of renewed stock, ageing horses or whatever. However, Harvey Smith’s grandson is now on the license, and while he’s been involved at times, is maybe bringing some renewed youthful enthusiasm. We shall see! It has often been a yard that would run horses into fitness, often needing 2 or 3 starts to really tune up, hence why many would be spot on come January, and maybe many of them enjoyed softer ground. Of course, the team used to have the excellent Danny Cook ride for them, and maybe his retirement affected the team also, both on track, but feedback for future starts also. They used Ross Chapman plenty in the last season or two, maybe not to good effect, and are now using some other jockeys. Their December this year was solid enough, 7/44,23p, their best month for some time, indicating the string are in ok form. Hopefully they can kick on into this month, 3 duds so far in the 7 days of Jan to date, so we’ll see. Maybe the team is turning a corner, maybe they’re not, but a return to 2017-2020 heights would be welcome!
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As always I’ll post daily qualifiers in the Members Posts (which you can try here>>>)
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