Today’s Stats Starting Points
This is a ‘stats first’ approach, NO assessment of the horses form, profile or suitability for conditions, has gone into the below. These angles are here to help give you a kick start, save time and add some focus, before further analysis. They pull through horses at all odds, inc a fair few ‘no-hopers’. With any luck a fun, engaging and rewarding challenge over time. You may decide to focus on a particular section, handicaps, certain race types, you name it. They fire out plenty of winners over time. Let’s crack on…
1.Trainers ‘In-Form’
Trainers with a 30%+ win SR in either last 14d or 30d, & a 30%+ win SR with today’s jockey in the last 2 years, all races.
None.
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2. Trainer & Jockey Combos ‘In-Form’
Trainers & Jockeys with a 30%+ SR together in last 14d or 30d, 5+ runners.
- 1.10 Hayd – Heros De Romay
- 1.30 Lud – Ostrava Du Berlais
- 2.35 Lud – Frenchy Du Large
- 2.35 Lud – Only The Bold
- 2.45 Hayd – Cloudy Glen
- 3.18 Hayd – Hasty Brook
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3.Trainers ‘In-Form’ + Jockey ‘In-Form’
Trainers with a 30%+ win SR in either last 14d or 30d, and today’s jockey has a 30%+ win SR in last 14d or 30d, all rides.
- 1.30 Lud – Ostrava Du Berlais
- 2.35 Lud – Frenchy Du Large
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4. Trainer + Jockey Track Form
Trainer with a 30%+ win SR all runners at track last 2 years, & a 30%+ win SR with today’s jockey at the track in last 2 years.
- 12.40 Hayd – Cest Quelguun
- 1.10 Hayd – Heros De Romay
- 3.18 Hayd – Pacini
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5. Trainer Track Form
Trainers with at least 5 winners at track and a 25%+ win SR in last 2 years, ALL runners, but just pulling through runners in all handicap hurdles & handicap chases.
- 2.45 Hayd – Cloudy Glen
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December Trainers
Research post to follow…
- 12.40 Hayd – My Friend Yeats (22/1<) DNQ
- 1.30 Lud – Jackpot Cash (16/1<) UP
- 1.30 Lud – Ostrava Du Berlais (any) WON
- 3.10 Lud – Current Mood (16/1<) 2nd
- 3.10 Lud – Lagonda (any) UP
- 3.18 Lud – Hayd – Hasty Brook (22/1<) UP
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Today’s Tips & Notes
One poke from me today…
2.35 Lud – Bass Rock – 13/2-7/1 UP/3rd, ran ok, but only that, hard to know what to make of that.
A risky one but the price just allows the play in this field for me, in a race where most have some sort of major question to answer. It could well fall apart. This lad is only 8 and is untried over 3m+ as a staying chaser – that is the reason for potential improvement/a step forward, weighing that up against the fact he may not stay! He does have some very good back form, including at Haydock over hurdles in their 3m G3, not beaten far at all under at aggressive ride. His chasing career started well, an easy novice win around Carlisle, followed by a narrow defeat off 139 to a subsequent winner. He’s off 123 here today, a mark he’s hacked up off before over hurdles (and a win off 130). There’s no doubt he’s handicapped to strike, if his new trainer can relight the fire. I don’t know much about her, but it looks like she can train and the small team appear in decent form. She’s done well in staying contests to date, around here, and is 2/9,6p with Lorcan riding. The horse lost his way a bit for Sandy T but didn’t run too badly on seasonal return at Cheltenham, on ground probably too quick, over a CD where he may now lack the pace. He was probably there for a day out but he moved fine until the bottom of the hill, was looked after, but finished fine, probably blowing up a bit. If he got back to the form he showed of Nov/Dec 2022, he’d win this from this mark for me, just a question of whether he can. I think he’ll enjoy this 25.5f tempo around here, hopefully he can get into a rhythm. There are some risks, but some method, and i’ll have a dart. I’m sure connections will get him firing at some point and he’ll sluice up when they do.
Frenchy could run well if tuned up, he’s obv had a problem and rarely for one of Venetia’s, doesn’t have a great record fresh – well, that could be harsh, he’s UR/Fell on his last two returns, too early to tell. I wasn’t sure his mark a gift, for all Ned’s 5lb will help, but he could give this a good go. I was on Dreaming Blue in this last year off 10lb lower, where he looked the winner but didn’t get home after the last as strongly as some others – his mark/stamina are the questions, but there is a chance this falls apart and he doesn’t need to truly stay, and a repeat of last year’s effort is enough. I thought those two short enough given said questions but I could have one or both wrong, they’ll no doubt be fighting it out!
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Venetia has a few today, a couple of shorties in the 1.30 Lud and 2.45 Haydock. I thought they both looked strong, a 11/2 or so double (WON) for fun money if that’s your thing! The old boy Cloudy Glen looks a ‘jump and you win’ jobby to me in the Vets chase, if turning up in his usual form when fresh. This has no doubt been the plan, Charlie on, I think he’ll sluice up, famous last words, but 7/4, 13/8, not really my prices. I’ll play the double. I’d like to see him run a big race, fingers crossed. Maybe she’ll have a treble with Frenchy, we’ll see, or 2 of the 3.
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GL with any bets,
Josh