My Musings
Friday’s pokes… four from me today, hopefully another winner below as with yesterday, 24.00 and 12s winners so far this week from the five handicaps I’ve attacked, I even manage a 1-2 yesterday and a 28/1 2nd in the last race for EW players.
Duke of Edinburgh
Shadow Dance 7/1
Sheer Rocks – 40.00
Sandringham
Arisaig – 25/1 – EW
Soprano – 25/1 – EW
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STATS & TRENDS
Please do read my free report HERE >>>
Trainer/Jockey Combo ‘Qualifiers’
2.30 – Fairy Godmother (AOB/RM 10/1<)
2.30 – Twafeeg (AW/HD)
3.45 – Devoted Queen (CA/WB)
3.45 – Opera Singer (AOB/RM, 10/1<)
5.40 – Royal Supremacy (11/1<)
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Jamie Spencer Straight Course
2.30 – Simmering
5.05 – Arisaig
6.15 – Mon Na Slieve
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TRENDS…
16.25 – Duke of Edinburgh
The 16/16 stats, ignoring position in the weights for the moment, would leave us a long-list of ten to get stuck into, IF upholding as always…
Shadow Dance, Sea King, Fairbanks, Vaguely Royal, Bague DOr, Struth, Party Central, Sheer Rocks, Marhaba The Champ, Cumulonimbus
All bar Cumulonimbus hit my weight trends also.
Applying the three 15/16 stats would leave 15/16 winners (15/68 runners, 26p, +101 BFSP) and IF upholding would leave us looking a five…
Shadow Dance, Sea King, Fairbanks, Vaguely Royal and Sheer Rocks
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Deakin
- La Yakel
- Vaguely Royal
- Struth
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17.05 – Sandringham Stakes
These Royal Ascot handicaps do not get any easier and unfortunately for me it is not the strongest of trends races, not against the sort of pointers I use anyway.
However, it should be noted that the market has been some sort of guide to this race, with 13/16 winners sent off 11/1 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger, 3/251, 25p. Having said that, between 2017-2020, three of the four races were won by 20/1+ shots, two trained by Charlie Fellowes, who isn’t represented this year. Over the last three renewals, those sent off 12/1+ are now 0/65, 6p. It would make all our jobs a little easier if the market continued to be some sort of guide, even though I do like the odd big priced poke in these races.
Ignoring the market for the moment, there are a couple of pointers which can help. Horses that had 2 or 3 runs in the previous 90 days, who’d won or placed at least once on their last two starts and who’d run at Class 3+ at least once in their career, would have found 13/15 of the UK/Irish trained winners (Wesley Ward winning this in 2017, not included in these stats)
IF that profile holds, we’re left with a long list of 12, but without any pointers to narrow it further… other than hoping the market is once again a guide. Those twelve…
Everlasting, Zaynab, Flight of Fancy, Fair Angellica, Battle Queen, Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig, Soprano, Marcella, My Margie, Raknah
Looking at horses representing trainers who’ve won this race previously can also be useful…
- John & Thady Gosden: Cat Ninja, Mrs Morrell, D Fawless, Strutting
- Mark Johnston (now Charlie): Arisaig
- Johnny Murtagh: Asian Daze
Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig at the three horses who hit my trends profile and who represent yards who know how to win this race.
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