My Musings
Good Morning… close, but not quite close enough in The Royal Hunt Cup, I wasn’t far away from the winner at all, and evidently 7s-8s was just fine! Alas. Weld’s horse ran a stormer, very unlucky and would have been bang there with a clear passage, but that’s racing on the straight course for you. On this ground you don’t want to be too far back it seems. It was great to see Jamie Spencer grab his straight track win, maybe his only one for the week, we shall see, 16s>12s>5/1 SP. They knew. He must work with some Ryan Rockets/the clock for them to be that confident.
Onwards… to what looks an impossible day of handicaps, and I don’t have time for any notes but as always some method to my madness (my preview of 3.05 can be found on Geegeez)… once again some Ascot fun money being thrown around on Betfair (for me that’s £2s-5s), playing with profits from Day 1 for the rest of the week, where I’ll likely need one more winner for a profitable week, but then we’re not yet halfway!
Horses listed in order of preference in said races and I’d just head to Betfair and get the best price you can, or BFSP…
3.05 – French Duke / Autumn Winter / Naval Force
17.05 – Volterra / Skukuza / Mickley
18.15 – Billyjoh / Dark Thirty
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STATS & TRENDS
Please do read my free report HERE >>>
Trainer/Jockey Combo ‘Qualifiers’
2.30 – Tropical Storm (AB/OM, 11/1<)
2.30 – Whistlejacket (AOB/RM, 10/1<)
3.05 – Gilded Warrior (WH/TM)
3.05 – Warda Jamila (AB/OM, 11/1<)
3.45 – Diamond Rain (CA/WB)
3.45 – Kalpana (AB/OM, 11/1<)
3.45 – Port Fairy (AOB/RM, 10/1<)
5.40 – Bellum Justum (AB/OM, 11/1<)
5.40 – Portland (AOB/RM, 10/1<0
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Jamie Spencer Straight Course
5.05 – Blue Lemons
6.15 – Rhoscolyn
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TRENDS…
3.05 Ascot – The King George V Stakes
- 16/16 were rated OR 95 or lower (0/38,10p rated higher, small numbers and the placed horses suggest that may fall sooner rather than later, only three runners this year OR96+)
- 14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at Class 4 level or higher
- 14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at least once on their last two starts
Applying those pointers would leave us a short list of six…
Going The Distance, Fouroneohfever, Gallantly, City Burglar, Warda Jamila and Naval Force
I should add two further horses, both rated 95 or lower, who’ve yet to win in their career, in the UK/Ireland, (my trends ignore form from other racing jurisdictions) … French Duke and Autumn Winter
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Aidan O’Brien: Chantilly, Gallantly, Gasper De Lemos, Autumn Winter
- Ralph Beckett: Going The Distance, Poniros, City Burglar
- William Haggas: Glided Warrior
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17:05: Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
The trends profile for this is ‘so-so’ and the 16/16 and 15/16 stats don’t help narrow things down too much. I’m not sure a profile to be trusted but applying some of my trends from the report above would have found 11/16, and IF upholding, evidently a bigger If than usual, would point to a longer list of…
Air Commander, Mickley, Volterra,Skukuza, Cogitate, Follow Me, Mission to Moon, Monkey Island, Arctic Thunder, Cracking Gold, Cuban Tiger
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Qirat, Kings Gamble, Safwan
- Air Commander
- Skukuza
- Dashing Darcey, Mission to Moon
- Involvement
- Sir Les Patterson
- Arctic Thunder
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18:15: Buckingham Palace Stakes
IF my eight 11/11 pointers hold in this race, we’re looking at a short-ish list of ten runners… (11/97 runners, 24p, +240 BFSP)
English Oak, Divine Libra, Gorak, Finns Charm, The Xo, Billyjoh, Dark Thirty, Mustajaab, Greatgadian, Maywake
Applying the 10/11 stats would point to 9/11 winners and IF upholding would point to a shortlist of four…
Divine Libra, Billyjoh, Greatgardian, Maywake
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Koy Koy, Barader
- Bopedro, Rhoscolyn, Summerghand, Alzahir
- Dark Thirty, Tacarib Bay
- Greatgadian
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