Free Guest Post: The Saturday Sizzler Race Preview

SATURDAY SIZZLER: Another Big Race Could Be Heading To Jonjo
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With few runners on very deep ground at Haydock and a fairly moderate card at Taunton as well, there is only one place to look ahead which is NEWBURY and the race in focus is The Mandarin Handicap Chase (3m2f) at 2:25.

There are 12 horses declared for this Class 3 contest and as you would expect, the ground is on the soft side of good. It’s officially good to soft with soft patches all over, but it tends to ride a little better on the chase track and it might ride a little better on it today.

What The Trends Say

A quick look at the past 10 year trends/stats first. Age is no barrier to finding the winner, as horses aged from 4 through to 10 have all won. Weight is no issue either, the full weight range of 10st through to 12st has been covered as well. Only 2 have won carrying less than 11st 3lb (just 2 under that weight today).

It’s not the greatest race for favourites, only 2 have won in the past 10 years, but the biggest price was only 12/1. The average winning price has been around 11/2-6/1.

No Great Trainer/Jockey Trends

There have been 10 different winning trainers and 10 different jockeys as well. Of those 10 trainers, Ben Pauling (won in 2015) saddles 2 in Bangers And Cash and Bowtogreateness (not run for 259 day). No horse has won this its seasonal debut so the latter’s task is arguably tougher still.

Colin Tizzard won this in 2019. His son Joe has taken over the reins now and he saddles Striking A Pose (10st 6lb) who is ridden by Harry Cobden who won this in 2019 and is the only rider in this to have won this in the last 10 years.

For what they are worth, stats are a little against them and the horse has become disappointing as well.

Fantastikas has a preference up at Haydock (1:25). It’s a small field and the ground might be more suitable for him there.

Placed Horses Are Back

Last year’s 2nd, Shanty Alley (beat 1 length), and 3rd, Laskalin (beat 6 lengths), renew rivalry and both could go well once again. Of that pair I would favour the 9yo Shantey Alley (10st 9lb). Both have run twice this season, with Shanty Alley showing the better form of the pair. However, he’s not the easiest to predict and he’s still 3lb above his last winning mark which was in mid January 2021.

The 7yo’s Dockpickedme and Bangers And Cash are capable, but both wear cheek-pieces and are a little too difficult to predict. Notachance (cheek-pieces) is quite similar to them, these days and he needs 3m4f to 4m, this trip might be just a little too shy of his best.

I’m not knocking horses with cheek-pieces, I’ve backed plenty who wear them, but they are an aid to help horses concentrate, jump and run. A wind Op can also improve a horses performance, so it’s possible to see improvement from Surrey Quest today, but that was done after he won on his debut at Huntingdon at the end of October (7th Nov) and as several horses do, he might benefit for his first run back and the experience this time. I wouldn’t rule him out though, but he might be one for another day down the line.

Atlanta Brave ran a fair race last time at Exeter (3m), but he is quite raw 5yo and a maiden at this discipline as well (2 chase runs). He’s also yet to prove he stays this extra distance and is a little unappealing at around 6/1. I think he will stay and go well, but would rather back the topweight Certainly Red (12st2lb) at a double figure price e/w rather than him.

Certainly Red has shown steady improvement over the last few seasons and has shaped with promise in both outings this season as well. A good 4th in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton (3m1f, Nov 11th), was followed by a creditable effort under 11st 12lb when 3rd in the London National at Sandown (3m4f) 3 weeks ago. He is very solid and consistent in this type of contest and he seems versatile regarding the ground. He has the size to lump round big weights (twice won with 12st) and is worth considering as a saver to the selection below…

Team Jonjo O’Neill have won a few Handicaps with Inch House at NEWBURY this season and their runner YES INDEED has run well each time he’s been here before (form 242). This former French trained winner made his debut for O’Neill back in Nov 21′ and after a quiet run on his debut he finished 2nd round here in February 2022.

The signs were promising enough then, but in 3 more starts last year, his form went from bad to worse. He had a wind Op back in January (23′) and first run after was at NEWBURY but over 2m (March), he finished last of 4, beaten 16 lengths which wasn’t too bad (expected), but back at NEWBURY 3 weeks later he finished 2nd over nearly 2m7f and was headed right on the line.

He ran in better company next time at Uttoxeter (3m) 6 weeks later and finished 2nd once again (beaten 3 lengths), he would have finished closer but for stumbling at the 3rd last fence, but he rallied well after and wasn’t stopping at the end.

After a summer break (183 days) he returned and ran quite well at Carlisle (3rd, beaten 7 lengths) and was doing all his best work late in the day. He did disappoint though at Bangor last time (well beaten 4th of 7), but he was bang there when almost departing at the 5th last and his rider couldn’t regain his irons for a while. Besides, the ground there was bottomless and probably not ideal for him.

Today’s trip around this track on a less taxing surface will be more suitable and whilst he hasn’t yet won for Jonjo (placed 5 from 10, did win 2 in France, incl a Listed chase), he’s still just a 6yo and has plenty of time to put that record straight. Starting today, off a mark over a stone lower (17lb) than when he first appeared in the UK. At a freely available 12/1 at the time of writing he’s an interesting choice.
Philip ‘Snowy’ Griffiths

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Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.