Kempton Pair Look The Clear Picks In Middle Distance Handicap
Baryshnikov was the selection last week and unfortunately he ran the same race he has done on his last couple of visits to the racecourse. He was held up off a slow gallop and nothing got into the race, including Baryshnikov. One day they’ll go really hard up front and it will set up nicely for him but he’s been too expensive to follow this season and he’s now left my tracker.
It was a bit annoying to see the selection from two weeks ago, Mattice, go and win next time out this week at Beverley. I was frustrated by his run at Haydock as he had no excuses and I knew he was capable of winning off that mark. He just seemed revitalised by running through horses this time around.
Giving Ayr A Miss
Nothing has appealed to me so far at Ayr, either on Thursday or Friday, the Bronze Cup simply looks too hard this year. Hopefully it will flag up any potential draw biases for the Silver Cup and Gold Cup on Saturday. I’m sure I’ll be finding bets in both of those races as there are certainly a fair few I have my eye on.
In terms of a bet for Friday, I’m looking towards Kempton. I’m planning to have a wager in the 7.15 at that venue which is a class 5 handicap over 11f.
Unfortunately, at the time of writing, there is no market for this race. The horse I’m interested in is definitely going to be towards the head of the market and although I make him the favourite to win, I have a feeling the bookies will get things wrong and put him in as the second favourite. Either way, there are 12 runners entered so I’m confident he’ll be a backable price.
Two Runners Could Dominate Proceedings
I suspect the early favourites for this race will be standout pair Born Ruler and Wadacre Gomez. These two met 6 weeks ago over 10f at Chelmsford and they finished 3rd and 1st respectively. They were both similarly placed throughout and Wadacre Gomez won fair and square, pulling away from Born Ruler in the final furlong.
What is particularly interesting about this race is how it has worked out subsequently. The runner up won next time out at Newcastle, by a comfortable 1.5 lengths. Born Ruler has run since and won by 3.5 lengths at Sandown. The 4th finished runner up next time out and the 5th won next time out. That’s seriously hot form and the exact thing I’m looking for when trying to build my tracker. It doesn’t end there though, the 7th, 8th and 11th have all won since as well whilst the 9th was 2nd on his next start. That’s been an unbelievable race to follow for future winners.
It’s no surprise that the handicapper has now reacted in adding an extra 2lbs to Wadacre Gomez’s rating. He was initially put up 3lbs for that win, which in hindsight was extremely generous, but that’s now going to be 5lbs. HOWEVER the extra 2lbs hasn’t kicked in yet which puts Wadacre Gomez 2lbs well in.
If you ran that race at Chelmsford again, you’d think Born Ruler would need to be about 6lbs better off to reverse that form. However, because Born Ruler has run again and won since he’s carrying a 6lb penalty. With Wadacre Gomez running off a 3lb higher mark here he’s actually 3lbs better off with Born Ruler and in theory should have the beating of Sir Mark Prescott’s horse by about 3 lengths.
There is an extra furlong to think about here though which could make things slightly more complicated. Wadacre Gomez is an interesting horse in terms of breeding given he’s by a sprinter but his dam was campaigned at up to 2m. Judging by Wadacre Gomez’s career to date, he’s inherited his dam’s stamina and not his sire’s speed and earlier efforts have seen him tapped for toe on occasions suggesting this step up in trip could be a help not a hindrance.
Sir Mark Prescott horses often improve for going up in trip and Born Ruler also has stamina on the dam’s side, she was a 14f winner. It’s not easy to quantify possible improvement in lengths or pounds but both horses should have few problems seeing out the extra furlong.
Given both horses come into this race off the back of convincing wins I expect the pair to dominate the betting, and given their form I expect them to dominate the race. Wadacre Gomez should definitely be favourite but given how visually impressive Born Ruler was last time out at Sandown I can see bookies dodging him even more and making him the favourite.
Others To Consider
Masqool ran well enough last time out over 10f to suggest he’ll run to form in this. He has seemed stretched by trips in excess of 10f in the past so doesn’t appeal as one to finish in front of the aforementioned pair but there is no reason why he can’t play a supporting role.
Down To The Kid ran an excellent 3rd here two starts ago in what was probably a stronger race but since then he’s been a disappointing favourite at Southwell and then he’s changed yards. He has questions to answer now but is clearly capable.
Jack Sparowe won his penultimate start over a mile but wasn’t as good last time on a first try at 10f and he doesn’t appeal massively based on that run.
Pablo Prince has been very consistent and comes here in good form but he’s dropping back in trip and is probably in the grips of the handicapper now, plus he’s going up in grade.
Pink Jazz was a wide margin winner last time out over a mile but is up 3f and up 12lb too. It seems a strange move to go so far up in trip and he looks opposable.
Final Verdict
The two stand outs are WADACRE GOMEZ and Born Ruler and ready preference is for the former who is very much handicapped to confirm Chelmsford form. The selection has a solid overall record on artificial surfaces (only two poor runs came on turf) and even his penultimate 3rd at Chelmsford has worked out well so his form is far from reliant on just one excellent win.
Both were well placed in their race last time but Wadacre Gomez proved he can lead and then get headed and still come back through to win and tactical versatility could be important here again with a prominent ride no bad thing over this course and distance.
I wouldn’t put anyone off a reverse forecast on the pair either (probably weighted more in favour of Wadacre Gomez) as they both still look ahead of the handicapper and have likeable profiles. It would be nice cover in case Born Ruler needed the run when behind Wadacre Gomez at Chelmsford (had been off 2 months and gelded so it is possible).
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