Return To Form Expected For Overpriced Runner
After hitting the bar a fortnight ago with Catch The Paddy at 20/1, we got back to winning ways with Persuasion last week who went one better. He was freely available at 7/1 the evening before and went off at 6/1 so hopefully plenty of profit made! He was given the perfect ride and he won cosily by 2.5 lengths, a winning margin even I didn’t see coming!
He’s actually due to run again this Friday at Haydock but he’s carrying a 5lb penalty in a race where there doesn’t seem to be much pace so I’ll be swerving him this time around.
Assuming prices hold, I will be having a bet on that Haydock card though…
Sprint Handicap This Week’s Focus
The 2.35 at Haydock on Friday is a class 4 5f handicap. Haydock have been watering good ground in the lead up to this meeting but with the weather as it is, I’m expecting it to be pushing good to firm by the time this race comes around.
There are 13 runners set to go to post and this does look an extremely competitive race. None of these seem to have outstanding claims and you can also pick holes in each runner. There is one who I think I can build a strong case for and I think he’s going to bounce back to form after a couple of lacklustre efforts.
Mattice Worth Chancing Back In Optimum Conditions
I’ve been following Mattice for almost a year now after seeing him go close towards the end of last season in some very warm handicaps. He’s run nine times this season yet he’s only had his preferred conditions once. As a result of running in less than ideal conditions he now runs off a 10lb lower mark then he started the season on and he’s 4lbs lower than his last winning mark from last season.
His ideal conditions are 5f and fast ground. He’s now run 25 races in his career, yet rather amazingly, he’s only run in six handicaps at distances shorter than 6f away from softish ground. Five of those runs have come with cheekpieces on and his form figures in those races with headgear read 21244. That’s only one win from five attempts but those efforts have come in some extremely competitive handicaps and they all came from higher marks than he races off today. Just a year ago he was beaten just a short head in a class 2 handicap off a 9lb higher mark so he’s definitely a well handicapped horse.
He’s only a 4yo and he doesn’t look regressive, he just looks to have been poorly campaigned this season. He’s had just the one run over 5f on good or better ground in 2023 and that came in a very competitive Sunday Series race at Beverley. He was racing off a 5lb higher mark than he now races off and he led until about half a furlong out before fading slightly into 4th, beaten just 1.75 lengths. The winner of that race has won twice more since and is now 11lbs higher, the runner up won his next start and the 3rd has got within a nose of winning since. If Mattice had run in that race off his current mark he would have gone extremely close to winning.
He’s largely been running very well this season even when the ground has been slightly too soft – he does have a fair record on good to soft ground, even if it’s not ideal. His next 5f race after that Sunday series race saw him finish 3rd of 18 at York, beaten less than a length, again off a 5lb higher mark than he currently carries. A repeat of that effort would probably see him win this as well.
The return of David Allan should be a big positive. The pair have form figures of 3243212543 together with many of those runs coming in some of the most competitive sprints run all season.
There are some negatives and question marks about this horse though. He tends to like to go forward, even if he hasn’t managed to do that on his last couple of starts, and there are several other front runners in this field. It’s possible he goes for the lead and in doing so goes off too hard but he doesn’t have to lead so if they did go hard he could easily just sit in behind.
A bigger problem is perhaps his last two runs, both of which have finished with him beaten 8 lengths. There have been valid excuses for both though. The first of those came over 5f on soft ground. He’s run okay on good to soft before but his worst 5f runs have all coincided with softer ground and that was the softest ground he’s ever encountered. He never really went a yard on it.
Then last time out he was running in an extremely competitive handicap over 6f and he found himself going extremely keenly for the first couple of furlongs. He then hung to his left, away from the faster strip of ground, and he unsurprisingly had nothing left a furlong out so he faded.
It’s not ideal to have been well beaten on two starts in a row but it is worth noting that he was beaten 13 lengths at Thirsk over 6f in May and he followed that up with his 4th in that Beverley Sunday Series race, arguably his best run all season. So at the very least he’s demonstrated this season that he can bounce back from a very poor run when given his preferred conditions.
Other Well Handicapped Options
There are others in the race who seem well handicapped. Level Up has been progressing as a 4yo and he’s managed to win five races this season, including three from his last four. Interestingly all those victories have come by a short head which means the handicapper has been having a real tough time in nailing him – he’s only gone up 6lbs combined for those last three wins. The 2nd and 4th have come out and won from that latest victory so a 2lb shouldn’t stop him from being competitive but he is up in class here against horses like Mattice who have been running in class 2 and 3 handicaps for much of the season.
Bayraat is another interesting runner. He’s been racing over 6f/7f and his form suggests he’s been better at 6f than 7f. His 3rd in soft ground two starts ago looks decent form with the 2nd, 5th and 6th winning next time out and he proved his effectiveness on fast ground when 2nd, again over 6f last time out. Whether or not he has the speed for this test is a big question mark though.
Question Marks Over Many
Level Up and Bayraat have class and trip question marks against them and many other well fancied runners also have some question marks over them.
Muker is the favorite according to the very early betting and he’s been in good form and conditions are fine for him. This looks much tougher though than the race he won last time out. Never Dark is also in good form but all his best efforts have come on softer ground. There are also ground concerns over Sergeant Pep.
Soul Seeker doesn’t look amazingly well treated but conditions will be fine, he’s in excellent form and he’s 2lbs lower than his latest 3rd. He should be able to make the frame at least.
Final Verdict
No real surprise here but the selection in this race is MATTICE. I would have been more confident had this race come a few starts ago as he’d be going into this in better form but if that was the case he’d be 5lbs higher and half the price. Given both of his recent poor results can be fairly easily explained I’m relatively happy to be backing him off this mark, especially at the very early 10/1. I’d be delighted to see that reflected elsewhere when all the big bookies price up.
Assuming that sort of price is available when it comes to being able to get a bet on, I’m slightly conflicted about whether or not to back each way. For many, an each way bet is price dependent only. For me it’s much more about how likely they are to give their running and two poor runs in a row do give some doubt about his reliability. With that in mind I’ll probably have more on the win than the place, roughly twice as much to win than to place, so that the place bet covers my win stake should he only reach the frame.
Soul Seeker looks incredibly solid and I can see him running well whilst Level Up looks likely to go well too, even if this is a step up in class for that runner. I make that pair the main dangers in this.
I’ll also be keeping an eye on how Bayraat runs, with a view to probably backing him back over 6f next time out.
*
Don’t Miss A Bet – Profit Guarantee Offer
I don’t quite go into this level of detail for each race I tip in with my professional service but my write ups are a very similar flavour with a deep level of analysis. If you are interested in receiving my tips on a more regular basis during the flat season you can CLICK HERE TO REGISTER. If my tips don’t make a profit at advised prices in your first month (31 days) with the service you can just email admin@surewin.co.uk and they’ll give you your 2nd month completely free.
Check out my full results history on SureWin, bet by bet, by clicking here. Note that these results can sometimes run a couple of weeks behind present day.
Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.
*