Return To Faster Ground Should Suit Consistent Persuasion
I was pleased to see Catch The Paddy run so well last week given he was available at 20/1 until the morning of the race. He was held up a little further back than I would have liked (gave the winner and 3rd a fair head start) but he was probably second best on the day so I can’t argue too much.
My three horse shortlist all finished in the first 3 places which generated a trifecta payout of 917/1 if you backed it. Unfortunately I didn’t have a penny on it despite often backing my shortlists in trifectas (although I did have the exacta for small stakes at least). I hope at least one of you out there had the trifecta!
As is often the case, a top festival last week has been followed by some very mediocre racing this week and I’ve been struggling to find too many betting opportunities. There might just be a small one to be had at Thirsk on Friday though.
7f Handicap The Pick Of The Races
The 3.50 at Thirsk on Friday is a class 2 7f handicap that looks pretty competitive for a 9 runner race and I’m hoping it is a solvable contest.
At the time of writing the ground is good, good to firm in places. There is some rain forecast on Friday but it looks as though it should be pretty light so I’m expecting the ground to ride as it was described on Thursday (good, good to firm in places).
Normally with these previews I like to make a case for the one I like the most, and then mention others in with a chance, but given this is a relatively small field with relatively exposed runners I’m going to run through them in early price order.
Gweedore
I feel like I have a pretty good handle on this horse having followed him for a few years, I even managed to lose on him when he was racing off a 25lb lower mark a few seasons ago!
I’m surprised he’s so short here (3/1 early). He may have won his last two but if he wins this it will probably be the fastest ground he’s been successful on and he also faces competition for the lead from Mount Athos and maybe Danzan too.
He’s gone up 3lbs for winning last time which is fair considering it was a decent enough race but something that might be overlooked is William Pyle’s claim has dropped from 7lbs to 5lbs since he rode the horse last time so Gweedore will be 5lbs higher here.
He’s placed in 7 of his 10 runs in class 2 handicaps which is an admirable record going into what probably isn’t the strongest class 2 race ever run but I’d be surprised if he’s well enough handicapped still to land this.
Mount Athos
Another of the pace angles. Mount Athos comes into this off the back of two underwhelming efforts but he has registered a 1st and a 2nd in two runs at this venue.
He was a non runner on good to firm ground recently but has won on good ground in the past – I’m led to believe connections think he wants some cut in the ground which probably makes that poor show in a listed race on soft ground last time out a worry, back on faster ground here.
The form of his last handicap win hasn’t worked out particularly well and he’s probably better on the all weather so I’m relatively happy to take him on given he comes into this off the back of two below par runs.
Danzan
An admirable horse in the right grade who has two wins from five starts here. His best form generally comes with some cut in the ground and he’s 4lbs above his last winning mark so he’ll need to run as well as he ever has done in recent years to land this.
Like Gweedore, his rider has ridden out his claim since riding the horse last time so although he’s 1lb lower than when a well beaten 2nd by Maywake, he’s actually 2lbs worse off because of the lack of claim. I think he’ll do well to finish in the money despite a good record here.
Persuasion
I’ve been waiting for this horse to run on better ground.
He has a poor win record with just two wins from 27 starts but he is a pretty consistent horse who finishes in the money more often than not. His last win came back in April 2021 but he’s been running well all season, without ideal conditions, whilst dropping slowly in the handicap.
His last two runs have come on good to soft ground and he’s run well enough in defeat in races that haven’t worked out particularly well. It’s his earlier season, faster ground form that I’m more interested in though.
On seasonal debut he was 3rd off a 4lb higher mark off an extremely slow gallop and the 1st, 2nd and 4th have all won since. He was 3rd again next time out, again off a steady gallop, with the runner up winning since.
He was 3rd yet again on fast ground at Haydock off a 3lb higher mark when doing best of those held up after being hampered early. The winner from that race is now 13lbs higher. Then next time he got no sort of run and finished on the heels of the winner, still off a 2lb higher mark.
This horse needs fastish ground and a decent pace to run to his best and the only time he’s had that this season he was an unlucky loser off a higher mark. Being able to back him each way in ideal conditions is a big positive.
The main concern, other than his win record, is he ran poorly in this race last year on his only visit to Thirsk but he’s run well at similar courses (won at Haydock, another flat left handed course) so he might just have had an off day then.
The Cookstown Cafu
In good form in the spring but his form has tailed off a little, especially when well below form last time out at Carlisle.
He’s probably better with some cut in the ground but he ran well over course and distance on good ground in May when 2nd to Scottish Summit, who reopposes here.
He has a fair chance on his best form this season but he needs to bounce back.
Documenting
This old timer ran well at York on seasonal reappearance but he hasn’t matched that effort on his last two starts. It’s difficult to know what you’ll get with Documenting but he still pops up with some good efforts every now and then and conditions will be fine.
The majority of his recent wins have come in smaller fields which is a bonus but he needs to run about 15lbs better than his latest effort and that’s a major concern.
Scottish Summit
Often seen traveling like the winner only to fail to find as much as expected but he was a winner here in May when beating The Cookstown Cafu (handicapped to just about confirm that form).
Like many of these, he wasn’t at his best last time out but he’s been proving best at 7f this season and his last run over this trip would give him leading form claims. He was 3rd at York in a race that has worked out pretty well and I can certainly see him bouncing back to form here and he’s only 3lbs higher than his course and distance win which was a slightly cosy success.
He’s not easy to win with and would prefer more rain but I can see him running into the places at a fair price.
Symbolize
It’s probably fair to say he’s run below form on his last four starts which includes two runs from last season. Connections seem to have recognised this as he’s been given a wind op and if he’s going to perform anywhere it’s probably here with form figures of 1224 at the venue.
He’s undeniably well handicapped but undeniably has something to prove. He’d ideally want softer ground but on his best form he’s in with a shout. Plenty to prove but one to give a market check to.
Titan Rock
Huge claims on his York 2nd in May but he’s regressed with two runs since then. He’s been off the track 77 days which suggests there has been an issue or they’ve been working on something with him and John Quinn has been in excellent form recently so there are reasons to think he could bounce back, for all he’s yet another runner that comes into this with something to prove. He’s won off higher in the past so he’s not out of this if he returns to form after a break.
Final Verdict
A slightly odd race in that two thirds of the field ran below par last time out and several of those who didn’t run well would be very interesting on the pick of their form.
The most likely finishing position for PERSUASION is probably 3rd based on his overall profile but he hasn’t had many opportunities, if any, to really show his best this term so he’s worth backing each way in this. That ‘likely to place’ profile is an excellent back up to our win bet and assuming the 7/1 very early price is echoed with other bookies when everyone prices up he’s worth a smallish bet each way. That’s a fair price but I wouldn’t be surprised if an even bigger price is available with a bookie or two. If he was a lot shorter I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him win only.
Scottish Summit, like Persuasion, finds placing easier than winning and he’s fancied to bounce back and run well whilst Gweedore probably has the most solid claims of running well, but off a lofty enough mark now I think he’s probably looking at 3rd place here.
There are several who have claims if back to form but there are some big ‘ifs’ out there. Symbolize is probably worth a quick check in the betting though as he’s one of the better handicapped ones in this if finding his best.
*
Don’t Miss A Bet – Profit Guarantee Offer
I don’t quite go into this level of detail for each race I tip in with my professional service but my write ups are a very similar flavour with a deep level of analysis. If you are interested in receiving my tips on a more regular basis during the flat season you can CLICK HERE TO REGISTER. If my tips don’t make a profit at advised prices in your first month (31 days) with the service you can just email admin@surewin.co.uk and they’ll give you your 2nd month completely free.
Check out my full results history on SureWin, bet by bet, by clicking here. Note that these results can sometimes run a couple of weeks behind present day.
Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.
*
2 responses
Well done Sam, keep the good run going,
Josh
Thanks, he did it well! 🙂