Course Specialist Of Interest In Quest To Win Seventh Newmarket Race
I had hoped Calling The Wind would be a place banker last week at Goodwood and with about half a mile to go things looked very promising but he found nothing for pressure and finished a tired horse. He was proven over the distance (and further) and proven in the ground so I think it’s fair to say he just ran a rare poor race. He was much weaker in the betting than I expected and perhaps he was still feeling the effects of his previous runs this season although several trainers reported their horses were unsuited by tacky ground so perhaps it was that.
It’s been nice to see the weather clear up this week. My last tip on good to firm ground came exactly a month ago which is quite incredible for this time of year. The wet period we’ve had has been a profitable one for me but I’ve got a lot more well handicapped fast ground horses in my tracker than slow ground horses so I’m hoping we get a couple of dry months now to profit from those.
Newmarket The Venue For This Week’s Free Pick
On the subject of fast ground, I’m praying for good to firm conditions on Friday at Newmarket. It’s been one of the most overwatered courses this season and I’m disgusted that they are putting 5mm of water down on good ground on Thursday – that seems an absolute disgrace given the weather we’ve had recently. What’s wrong with racing on fast ground?
The race of interest is the 6f class 4 handicap which will be run on the July course at 8.20pm. At the time of writing there are 11 runners set to go to post so it has the look of a nice, competitive race. I’m just hoping for a boiling hot day for the sake of the ground!
Course Specialist Of Major Interest
I tipped up Equiano Springs to my members at 10/1 when he last ran because of his amazing course record. Both Newmarket courses seem to come alike to Equiano Springs but he absolutely must have fast ground.
At this race distance of 6f, on good or better ground in handicaps on the Rowley Mile course or the July course,, his record now reads 111111 after his latest win a few weeks ago. That’s quite unbelievable considering his record at 6f on good or better ground at all other turf venues reads 2145407206056454.
Runs at those other courses seem to keep him well handicapped for his return visits here and despite now being a 9yo, he seems to be pretty much as good as ever.
After he won last time out I speculated that he’d be winning again here soon as the ground was ‘only’ good that day and it had been raining in the lead up to the race (they finished the card on near soft ground a couple of hours later). Despite the slightly easing ground and his love for very fast conditions, he cruised into contention and put the race to bed with the minimum of fuss.
He’d have been interesting next time out on fast ground however that form worked out but he’s even more interesting given how it has worked out. The runner up won next time out, himself beating a next time out winner, and the 3rd finished runner up in the Stewards’ Cup consolation race on Saturday on ground that was probably a little softer than ideal.
Equiano Springs is only 3lbs higher here and Adam Farragher is fair value for his 3lb claim, especially in relation to Tom Queally riding the horse last time out. You probably don’t get too many 9yos who win two handicaps in a row on the flat but he seems likely to give it a good shot.
Plenty Of 3yos In Opposition
Four of the next five horses in the betting are 3yos which means we need to respect the possible improvers. The weight for age doesn’t favour the classic generation as much over sprint trips as it does middle distances and according to a recent Timeform study is a bigger factor in better class races as well (which I didn’t know and found quite interesting) but even over these trips they’ll still have more secrets from the handicapper than the older horses.
The consistent Lady Dreamer is the early second favourite but she shaped like she might benefit of going back up to an easy 7f last time out and that Windsor 3rd hasn’t worked out particularly well yet so I’d be inclined to oppose her as one who might be running on a bit too late.
Champagne Sarah was 4th to big improver Quinault in May and that race has worked out well. Champagne Sarah won her next two starts narrowly though and was found out last time out off a 6lb higher mark when a well beaten 2nd. She brings a solid level of form into this but she wears first time cheekpieces and, although they improve some, more often than not first time headgear will result in underperformance so I’m happy enough to oppose her too.
Ice Cool Harry and Distinguished Lady are also single figure priced 3yos in this at the time of writing. The latter seems to have regressed in recent runs and now switches from Alice Haynes to Darryl Holland so maybe she’s worth a market check but present well being must be taken on trust. The former only beat one runner on handicap debut last time out and didn’t quite see it out but he was only beaten 1.75 lengths and the 3rd has won since (albeit on different ground). He’s respected without appealing too much.
Best Of The Rest
The only fancied older horse, other than Equiano Springs, seems to be Flying Secret. He’s had a strong season but the handicapper appeared to have already caught up with him before he was below par on softer ground last time out. It looks like connections are trying to find a bit more improvement back at 6f but he’s already appeared to find improvement previously for going up to 7f so I’m not sure if their plan will pay off despite the eye catching booking of William Buick at a course he rides so well.
Golden Duke is a last time out winner who will enjoy conditions but his latest win hasn’t worked out well whilst the enigmatic Tolstoy is going to find a race sooner or later but he’s proving difficult to win with.
Dashing Dick is also hard to win with and this drop in trip seems unlikely to suit and the well handicapped Rathbone completes the field. He seems overpriced given he was runner up off this mark on his last run over this trip on fast ground (three starts ago) and I like the booking of Connor Planas, who I think is excellent value for his 5lb claim. He’s on a long losing run but he’s often run well in defeat since his last win 13 months ago and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the places.
Final Verdict
There is obviously a lot to like about the record of EQUIANO SPRINGS here and I like the fact he squeezes into this 0-80 handicap off a mark of 82. There isn’t much pace in this race but that’s not a huge concern given he normally likes to race prominently. Ideally he’ll get a lead off something and that something could be Dashing Dick if he has the pace to go forward on this drop back to 6f. If not the likes of Rathbone, Lady Dreamer and Ice Cool Harry have all led early at least once on recent starts.
Assuming Adam Farragher doesn’t do anything crazy like holding the horse up near the back I think he’s by far the most likely winner of this race with the drying conditions very much in his favour and he has won twice before off higher marks in the past.
When I first looked at this race I feared Equiano Springs could be pretty short but the early 9/2 with William Hill seems very generous considering none of the opposition stand out so I really hope we see similar when the other bookies price up.
I actually think the biggest threat could come from the complete outsider at the time of writing, Rathbone. If he goes forward early he could take some catching and if he remains relatively unfancied I might consider chucking him in a small forecast with the main selection for a bit of extra value.
*
Don’t Miss A Bet – Profit Guarantee Offer
I don’t quite go into this level of detail for each race I tip in with my professional service but my write ups are a very similar flavour with a deep level of analysis. If you are interested in receiving my tips on a more regular basis during the flat season you can CLICK HERE TO REGISTER>>>.
If my tips don’t make a profit at advised prices in your first month (31 days) with the service you can just email admin@surewin.co.uk and they’ll give you your 2nd month completely free.
Check out my full results history on SureWin, bet by bet, by clicking here. Note that these results can sometimes run a couple of weeks behind present day.
Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.