Previous Winner Can Land The Goodwood Handicap
It was nice to get back on track with a winner last week after a couple of lesser efforts. Isle Of Dreams only just scrambled home in the end but she met some trouble in running, whilst going well, and the bunched finish suggested they didn’t go very hard early on. I could see her adding another win to her CV in the not too distant future granted softer ground again.
It’s been a successful Goodwood so far on the tipping front for me with Executive Decision and Rhoscolyn winning from just a few tips at the meeting. I’ll be hoping to add to that on Friday as Goodwood will be the focus of this week’s free preview.
Staying Is The Name Of The Game
I’m a sucker for a staying handicap and they don’t come much more extreme than the ‘Goodwood Handicap’ which kicks off proceedings on Friday (off at 1.50pm). This race is run over an extended 2m4f and there is always plenty of guesswork involved in figuring out which horses will stay the trip. Even researching the breeding of each runner can be inconclusive as very few flat horses are bred to be slow enough for this trip!
Despite the marathon trip, it does seem to be a race that favours early speed. I always had this down as a race forthose that race prominently, having backed hold up horses in the past only to watch them make little impression. However most race distances at Goodwood favour early pace less so on softer ground and that is backed up by the somewhat limited data on offer for this distance on softer ground.
Add to that the likely pace set up here. I count six runners who made the running last time out and nine who have led early on at least one of their last three starts. Three of those runners have led early on two of their last three runs so we do have some habitual front runners in this and I expect it to be a well run race where you are really going to have to stay the trip to feature.
Favourite Has Guaranteed Stamina
I’m a sucker for a solid, guaranteed stayer in this type of race and they don’t come any more solid than Calling The Wind. He often travels like the most likely winner but doesn’t always find as much as expected in the finish. That wasn’t the case last time out when he reacted well to the return of headgear as he found plenty to land the Northumberland Plate – a well deserved success given his consistency over the years.
He’s got plenty of form at this sort of trip as well having won this race quite comfortably off a 9lb lower mark two years ago. He’s also finished 2nd and 3rd in two renewals of the Queen Alexandra stakes over an extra furlong so he stays further and his 2nd was on soft ground so he stays further on very testing ground too.
He’s shown a distinct liking for softer ground throughout his career. His two turf wins have come on good ground but he’s finished runner up three times on soft in some extremely competitive races, including the November Handicap over a mile short of this trip which shows his relative speed too.
So he’s proven at the course, stays all day and will love the ground, however testing it is come Friday. So what about his handicap mark? Well he won an extremely competitive renewal of the Northumberland Plate last time out off a 3lb lower mark and he’s managed to finish 2nd off this mark in the past in the November Handicap, over what was surely too short a trip. At the very least he’s handicapped to go very close but it wouldn’t be a surprise if we see a career best as he’s never really had this kind of stamina test in a handicap – even when he won this race two years ago the ground was much faster.
He just looks so solid for an in form trainer under a jockey who is 1 from 1 on him and I can’t see a scenario in which he doesn’t run well.
Supporting Cast Have Stamina To Prove
You could argue the early second favourite, Typewriter, is proven over the trip having finished 4th in the Queen Alexandra stakes last time out but her stamina seemed to give way that day and that run came on much faster ground than this off a slower gallop then we’ll likely see here.
She handles softer ground and might yet stay the trip but it’s also worth noting she got a sex allowance last time out and was 2.75 lengths behind The Grand Visir in receipt of 6lbs whereas she’s 5lbs worse off here so I’m not even convinced she beats that runner who is a much bigger price.
Aggagio has to be of interest because of his course form. He has form figures of 1112125 here and those two 2nds are pretty much as good as wins given the he was only a short head behind in the winner in the first of those and the second time he was second to handicap blot Courage Mon Ami who would win the Ascot Gold Cup next time out.
His latest 5th is less strong form but he made a big, mid race move that day which will have cost him in the finish. He can probably be expected to improve on those last two runs here given he seems to prefer softer ground. He’d probably be the selection if this race was being run at 2m and he might still stay the trip having run well over 19f over hurdles but it’s 4.5f further than he’s ever gone on the flat, so backing him is certainly a risk.
Robert Johnson has been an improved performer since joining Philip Kirby this season and the races he’s been winning continue to work out well. He was last seen winning by 3 lengths over 2m at York and the 3rd and 5th have both come out and won since. He’s an extremely versatile horse having won on heavy and good to firm this season and having won over 12f and 16f and he might just stay this extra trip too – his sire was responsible for the Ascot Stakes winner two years ago. He’s much higher in the handicap now though and jumps up two classes as well which is a concern, as is the ability of Paula Muir against some of the best jockeys on the planet.
Who Else Has Proven Stamina?
Law Of The Sea is handicapped to finish ahead of Calling The Wind based on Chester Cup form this season but he was below par in the first time cheekpieces last time out when well behind that rival in the Northumberland Plate. It’s a surprise to see connections persevere with the headgear again and he might well have been the selection here had it been dispensed with. He should love the ground and the step back up in trip, it’s just the fear he won’t give his running in the headgear again.
The Grand Visir is handicapped to beat Typewriter so has to be of some interest, especially as he’s such a massive price here. He’d be one of the favourites if coming here straight from Ascot but he’s since run fairly poorly at Newbury. He is the type to bounce back, especially with connections switching his headgear combo again to revitalise him, and if there is one thing he loves it’s a real test of stamina. He’s won the Ascot Stakes on good to soft previously and he’s placed three times in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at that venue too. He even holds Calling The Wind on one of those runs. He could only manage 10th in this last year but he was 4th in the 2020 renewal off a 9lb higher mark and the ground will be more to his liking this time around. Catching him right is the difficulty though.
Tritonic was 3rd in the Ascot Stakes last time out so it’s difficult to argue he doesn’t stay but he does seem better on good ground, for all he has bits and pieces of form on softer.
Final Verdict
I’m always happy to back CALLING THE WIND each way over a trip on soft ground as he’s so consistent in those conditions and at a generally available 5/1 he surely looks a free bet when backed each way with most bookies paying 5 places. I’d be shocked if he didn’t reach the places and I think he’ll likely go very close, for all he’s very much exposed (as are most of these).
I wouldn’t be shocked if Aggagio or Robert Johnson won but both have stamina to prove and the latter needs to prove himself in this quality of race. Both can still run well and I’d favour the former out of that pair.
I’ll be tempted to have a saver on The Grand Visir as well. He’s become well handicapped, which happens to all regressive horses, but he ran as well as ever at Ascot in June and he should love running over this sort of trip on testing ground. The change in headgear can hopefully spark a return to form after a poor effort last time and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go well. At the very least he’s far too big a price at 20/1 (generally 16/1).
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One Response
Excellent analysis spot on.
Thank you very much.