Dreams Gets Her Ground At Thirsk
A few of my selections in this column haven’t fired at all and that was the case last week with Prince Alex finding nothing off the bridle and finishing well beaten. He was weak in the betting just before the off, so someone knew that was likely, and I see he’s moved trainer (again!) since that run. He’s probably one to treat with caution going forward although he does remain very interesting based on his penultimate run so perhaps it’s worth forgiving one poor run, even if he did have no obvious excuses.
Other than that I think I called the race well. I named the 2nd and 3rd in correct order and the one I nominated as perhaps being best handicapped of all, but needing to prove himself, won quite comfortably. So the homework was largely right but the bet didn’t work out as hoped.
On the subject of previous tips, two weeks ago I tipped Purple Martini and she was a big eyecatcher when 3rd at Chester. It’s worth noting that both the winner and runner up have won since (potentially both twice since depending on results on Thursday evening) meaning she’s of even more interest than she would have been, and I had quite a positive view about her anyway! I notice she has an entry next week at Beverley and I’d be very interested in her again, for all I’d be worried if she ended up poorly placed again as that’s another front runner track. Perhaps saving some of the stake for an in running bet might be a wise idea should she take up that entry.
Although I want some rain around for Purple Martini, I’m becoming increasingly frustrated by the continuous rain we’ve been having. I have a fair few well handicapped soft ground horses in my tracker but a lot more that want faster ground. Once the sunshine returns (if it ever does) I’m expecting to be firing in the winners.
What a shame though that the ground already looks to have been ‘ruined’ for Glorious Goodwood as I do really like the handicaps there, especially the ones where you can rule out half the field because of the draw!
I do also think the aggressive watering policies most courses have adopted in recent years, this season in particular, have been coming back to bite them. It’s becoming a common theme that good ground becomes soft ground after just 5mm or so of rain. There is nothing wrong with racing on good to firm ground but most courses seem against that these days for some reason and the BHA are completely supporting them, despite their guidelines stating that the courses should aim to produce good to firm ground.
Late Mind Change On This Week’s Bet
I was going to switch my attention to Saturday this week because I didn’t fancy much on Friday and I wasn’t convinced I’d get a backable price on the one I did like. However I went through Saturday’s cards and although I like a few, one will be making his all weather debut as a 5yo which I’m not in love with and the other is likely to be held up in a slowly run race. I noticed the very early price on my Friday fancy looked just about okay so I’m switching my attention back to Friday.
Five Year Old Expected To Bounce Back On Easier Ground
Isle Of Dreams rounded off last season with three wins on fast ground and perhaps wasn’t expected to relish soft ground on seasonal reappearance this season judging by the market (that or she wasn’t near fit) but she seemed to improve for softer ground, winning comfortably.
Over this course and distance on her second start of this season she won again (similar ground too) to make it a five timer and it’s that piece of form that makes her particularly appealing here. She won by half a length and has gone up 4lbs which looks extremely generous considering the subsequent form from that race. The 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th have all won TWICE since whilst the 3rd and 7th have both placed on numerous occasions since as well. Judging by that form she could still have another 10lbs or so in hand.
She has raced since then and that was on fast ground at Nottingham. She looked ill at ease with the surface from an early stage and although she’d previously won on fast ground, those wins came off much lower marks. She was 3rd, beaten almost 4 lengths, but the winner went close next time out and the runner up has won since so that wasn’t a bad run in the conditions.
Back on softer ground, at the scene of her career best performance (with similar underfoot conditions too) everything looks to be in place for her to run to her best.
Tactically, this race looked ideally poised early on as there was a sole front runner in the field and Isle Of Dreams looked likely to track that horse, never a bad position in a Thirsk sprint. However that front runner is an early withdrawal which leaves a question mark over what will go forward. Isle Of Dreams wouldn’t necessarily be suited by leading early so hopefully something else seizes the opportunity to get an easy lead. As long as Isle Of Dreams tracks the pace she should be well enough positioned and the fact she won over 5f on seasonal debut shows she has the speed if this turns into a more tactical than usual sprint.
The only other concern is that the trainer isn’t absolutely firing but he’s not out of form either so we’ll just have to cross our fingers.
Main Dangers
Happier could be the main danger on form but first time cheekpieces are always a risk and there must be a fair chance she doesn’t run to form in them (for all she might improve).
Run This Way seems the most solid opponent, she’s well enough handicapped on her course and distance run earlier in the season and has previously won here on soft ground as well so she should outrun her odds.
Final Verdict
I’m writing this before the majority of prices come through but if we see bet365’s early 3/1 on ISLE OF DREAMS echoed elsewhere I think that’s a fair bet.
I make Run This Way the main danger, whilst respecting the chances of Happier.
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One Response
Great tip Sam, well done.