A look ahead to the two big Saturday handicaps from York and Ascot… including the trends shortlists/pointers, and horses representing previous winning trainers of the race…
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PART 1 : Trend and Trainers
2.40 York – The Skybet Dash
15/254, 53p
15/15 were top rated or within 13lb of top rated (14lb or lower: 0/56, 8p)
15/15 carried 8-10 or more (exc jockey claims) (8-9 or less: 0/43, 5p)
14/15 sent off 12/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/147, 21p, winner 2021)
14/15 ran in Class 1 or 2 last start (C3>: 1/67, 14p)
13/15 drawn in stall 12 or lower (13+ : 2/93, 16p)
10/15 ran at Newcastle, Hamilton or Ascot last start (10/104, 26p)
Trainers
- T Easterby: 2/34, 6p
- M Dods: 2/7,4p
- X1: C Hills, W Haggas, D Ivory, M Easterby, D O’Meara, T Barron, K Burke, J Goldie, M Johnston, R Fahey
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3.00 Ascot – The International Handicap
15/356, 60p
15/15 official rating same as last start, or higher (lower: 0/59, 2p)
15/15 had run at Ascot in career prev (had not: 0/69, 6p)
15/15 had 4+ runs in handicaps (0-3: 0/46, 7p)
15/15 ran in a race for 3YO+ last start (3YO, 4YO+ = 0/67, 7p)
14/15 ran in C2 last start (C1: 0/33,6p; C3, 1/58, 8p)
14/15 had run over 1m or further prev in career (had not: 1/68, 11p)
13/15 aged 4 or 5
- Aged 3: 0/33,6p
- Aged 6+ : 2/113, 14p
13/15 Top 3 at least once last three starts (were not: 2/91, 12p)
13/15 ran over a straight course LTO (LH: 1/70, 4p; RH 1/28, 6p)
12/15 had 0-1 win over 7f (2+ : 3/185, 30p)
11/15 ran at Royal Ascot of Newmarket July Cup Festival on last start
- The other x4 ran at Sandown, Newbury, Haydock (x2)
Trainers
- R Fahey: 3/27, 5p
- M Johnston (now Charlie): 3/23, 4p
- J Osborne: 2/7,4p
- X1: Roger Charlton, R Fell, O Burrows, D Ivory, J Fanshawe, J Gosden
- D O’Meara (0/16,1p); K Ryan (0/12,1p) ; W Haggas (0/11,1p); J Goldie
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PART 2
Applying the trends…
2.40 York
Applying the first three trends (ignoring odds for now) would point to 14/15 winners, and if upholding would point to a long list of 8 (‘removing’ 7 horses)…
Mondammej, Lethal Levi, It Just Takes Time, Summerghand, Magical Spirit, Barefoot Angel, Hyperfocus, Zarzyni
12/1 or shorter SP has generally been a decent guide in this.
From that longer list, those drawn in stall 12 or lower has also been a good guide, for all such things can change season to season, and pace always plays some role… still, that leaves six…
Mondammej, It Just Takes Time, Summerghand, Magical Spirit, Barefoot Angel, Zarzyni
From the original long list, running at Newcastle, Ascot or Hamilton has been a positive (as opposed to a negative for elsewhere), and that would point to four …
Lethal Levi, Zarzyni, Hyperfocus and Magical Spirit… Zarzini and Magical Spirit also drawn 12 or lower.
With any luck the winner is mentioned there, just a case of landing on the right one!
Trainers (with runners/to have won race prev 15 years)
- Lethal Levi
- Aberama Gold , Summerghand,
- Music Society, Hyperfocus, Minila Scouse
- Zarzini
- International Girl, Barefoot Angel
- Abduction
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3.00 Ascot
The first six trends above would have found 13/15 winners (13/114 runners, 29p, although 0/8 last year) and IF upholding this year, would point to a long list of eight…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Bopedro, Montassib, Ramazan, Escobar, Top Secret, Orbaan
Age 4 or 5 is a positive, and from those, only Montassib hits that
A top 3 run at least once last three starts has been a positive…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Bopedro, Montassib, Ramazan, Top Secret
Those to have run on a straight course LTO, from that original group of eight…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Bopedro, Montassib, Top Secret
Those with 0-1 win over 7f: Ramazan & Orban
Those to have run at Royal Ascot of July Cup Festival on last start…
Biggles, Ropey Guest, Montassib
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Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Fresh, Hickory
- Ramazan
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