20/07/22 Free Tips Friday: Sam Darby’s Race Preview

Prince Can Rule In Haydock Staying Handicap

This week’s racing has been almost as disappointing as the ride Purple Martini received at Chester last week. One of my biggest frustrations is prominent racers being held up and given she was only a couple of lengths off the lead after half a furlong it was annoying that she was allowed to drift back through the field resulting in her being about 5 lengths off the pace turning for home. In fairness she took a while to get going once ridden but she flew home down the outside to finish 3rd, beaten just 1.5 lengths having not even been in view of the camera half a furlong out. She’ll probably benefit from a stiffer finish on a more conventional track and I think she’ll be winning again very soon.

The racing this week has been really poor but there are some decent handicaps on Friday, for all some of the turnouts are a bit disappointing.

Haydock Handicap Gets The Nod

The 3.50pm at Haydock on Friday is a race I’ve had my eye on all week. The fact that only 7 runners have been declared is a real shame, not least because it means a shorter price, no each way opportunity and a likely weaker pace than we probably would have got in a bigger field.

Prince Alex Likely To Take Plenty Of Beating

I’ve been backing this horse when he’s had ideal conditions for a few years now and it looks like his time is nearing again.

Prince Alex needs two factors to show his best. The first is testing ground. He did manage to win his handicap debut on good to firm ground but in hindsight he was about 30lbs well in on that occasion and still only got home by a neck. Three of his subsequent wins have come on soft ground with the other two coming on good to soft so it’s clear he’s better with plenty of cut in the ground. At the time of writing it is soft all over at Haydock but drying. At ‘best’ it should be good to soft tomorrow and that should be fine but softer would be ideal.

As well as soft ground he also seems a 14f specialist. When a very well handicapped 3yo he won a couple of times over 12f but all his best form since has come at this trip. His form figures over 14f in this country on good to soft or worse ground read 1121, the only defeat coming at the hands of a next time out winner so he clearly bumped into something very well handicapped that day.

Since his last win Prince Alex has had three different trainers. After winning on debut for Michael Bell his form tailed off, he had one poor run in Ireland for Johnny Murtagh and then he’s had two runs this season for current trainer Tom Dascombe. The handicapper has been pretty forgiving, dropping him 8lbs in six runs and he’s now 4lbs below his last winning mark.

Backing seemingly regressive horses is a quick way to lose money but a reproduction of Prince Alex’s latest run, even discounting the fact he’s 2lbs lower and racing on much softer ground here, would give him a serious chance.

He may have only been 4th in that race at Newmarket (this trip), beaten over 5 lengths, but the race has worked out very well. The winner ran well in the Northumberland Plate, doing best of those to race prominently whilst the 2nd, 3rd and 5th have all won since. A 2lb drop for that run seems very generous in hindsight, especially as the good ground would have been plenty quick enough that day.

I’m not really sure why they’ve booked Gary Halpin to ride as he has a very poor strike rate from his rides in the UK, admittedly riding plenty of unfancied runners. There are at least a couple of jockeys riding in this race who would have been preferable choices so that’s a slight negative.

Main Dangers

Ravenscraig Castle is another who I have on my tracker in this but he’s struggling to get the job done at the minute. He’s finished 2nd three times from five runs this season and connections reached for the visor last time out to see if that could improve him enough to win but he was once again caught close home, admittedly by a well backed favourite. He looks sure to run well with the ground and trip no problem and he’s well handicapped on some of his form this season but he’s vulnerable for win purposes.

Mothill is a potential fly in the ointment. He went from racing on the flat in France to hurdling over here so it’s difficult to get a handle on how well handicapped or not he is back on the flat. He’s had very few starts on the level and is rated 37lbs higher over hurdles. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s thrown in but he could run well and this looks the right sort of trip given he races over 2.5m over hurdles.

Another one who is difficult to weigh up is the lightly raced Quantum Leap. He made his belated debut in November as a 3yo so he’s clearly had issues but that was an excellent run given he finished just ahead of the now 90 rated Aztec Empire. He was well below that form 30 days ago in a decent looking novice at Newcastle over two furlongs shorter. Maybe that run was to get a more sympathetic handicap mark and he looks well handicapped based on his debut but after that most recent run, over a trip he’s never tried before, on his turf debut, he’s opposable for all he could be the best handicapped runner in the field.

Remainder Of The Field

Carrigillhy won last time out but his penalty leaves him vulnerable, especially with this trip on this ground likely to stretch his stamina to the limit. Natchez Trace could be the pace in this race and he could get a pretty easy lead but he’s on a career high mark and was beaten over this trip on similar ground at Redcar last season off a 7lb lower mark. De Vega’s Warrior is yet to win and whilst he’s generally been running okay and the ground and distance are fine, he doesn’t really appeal as a likely winner.

Final Verdict

PRINCE ALEX looks the most likely winner of this and how strong a bet he is will, as usual, comes down to value. He looks really interesting dropping back into a class 4 handicap for the first time in three years and despite the field size, there are enough in form rivals to make him a backable price.

Quantum Leap has the potential to be a relatively short price based on his debut success, for all he was well below that form second time out. Ravenscraig Castle surely needs to be close to the head of the betting, Mothill is a last time out winner, albeit over hurdles and Carrigillhy is a last time out flat winner.

If I was pricing this up I think I’d be putting Prince Alex in at about 3/1 favourite but I think we’ll get a fair bit better than that given he’s been beaten 18 lengths and 5 lengths on his two runs this season. He’d be a smallish bet at around 3/1 and a medium bet if available at around 9/2 or 5/1. If he’s more like the latter in terms of price I can certainly see him being well backed early.

I think Ravenscraig Castle will end up finishing 2nd again and I’d probably have Mothill finishing 3rd. Quantum Leap has the potential to beat them all in good style but including him in calculations would be a ‘leap’ in itself.

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