[Free Post] Newmarket July Festival: Day 1 (complete)

You can read my Free Report HERE >>>

Below you can find my big trace trends/trainers shortlist for the 3pm, a preview of the 3pm/selections, and a ‘through the card’… GL with any bets…

*

Big Race Trends

3pm Newmarket

Trends…

The x3 15/15 stats would point to 15/15 winners, (15/159 runners, +170 BFSP) and IF upholding this year, would point to a possible seven contenders…

Quinault H2, Frankness (also one of my Royal Ascot Eye-Catcers), Eminency, Desert Cop H1, Animate, Dark Thirty, Ferrous

It may well be best to focus on that list, as none of them tick all of my remaining trends… if ignoring the ‘stalls’ stat, Ferrous hits the rest.

Trainers (to have won race prev 15 years, with runners)

• Tajalla H4
• Frankness / Desert Crop H1
• Rousing Encore

*

Trainer Micro Angle Qualifiers

2.25 – Purosangue (AB, 20/1<) H4

3.00 – Desert Cop (AB, 20/1<) H1

3.00 – Frankness (AB, 20/1<)

4.10 – Dubai Treasure (SBS, 11/1<)

4.10 – Miss Information (AB, 20/1<)

5.20 – Glenfinnan (AB, 20/1<) H3

*

Newmarket Day 1 Notes

A look at the 3pm Newmarket below, followed by a ‘through the card’…

3pm Newmarket…

I’ve recorded a video preview below for those interested…

My lucky pins have landed on Quinault (6/1), Desert Cop (10/1-12/1) and Ferrous (22/1-25/1)

*

‘Through The Card’

1.50 – Saint George – 3/1 – i’ll stick with ‘the form’ horse here, for all the market suggests Aidan’s is going to sprout wings and maybe confirm himself a Leger horse – he’s very short now to my eyes, but the money may be spot on. Saint should make him work for it though if repeating his Ascot effort and he’s entitled to improve again also. The top two could be battling it out if both running their races.

2.25 – Lake Forest – 6/1 – a minefield of a race but Haggas is in form, and doesn’t have too many 1st time out winners. In fact, his 2YOs that won on debut, making 2nd start, sent off 7/1 or shorter since 2008 are… 46 bets / 20 wins / 29p / 43% sr / +18 BFSP / BFAE 1.22 … which is solid, and will do for me. His Haydock win was impressive given he was held up and looked green, but sluiced through and hit the line hard. He could come on bundles for that and is proven over the distance, unlike a few (although some will no doubt improve for the step up). He looks overpriced to my eyes.

3.00 – Quinault (6/1) – Desert Cop (12/1) – Ferrous (25/1) – as above, maybe more in hope than expectation given the nature of the race – I’m hopeful of a monster run from Quinault, he will be bang there IF running his race – Desert Cop a bit of the unknown on handicap debut, maybe has too much weight but I think we’ll see an improved effort here, Ferrous an outsider but ticks my trends etc, yard in form – I think more to come from him/this mark based on Goodwood win, just a question of when/it dropping right – being held onto for longer over this 6f trip may help him, and they should go a decent gallop. Top 5 will do me at 25s.

The other two I gave strong consideration to were Frankness and Eminency – the former got short enough I think given drawn on the wing and can be slowly away, also a form question I think but Ascot was a decent run considering. More to come from her for sure. At a similar price I preferred Quinault’s profile but I could have that wrong. Eminency could improve for the 1st CP – he needs to I think, behind Q a couple of times, I wasn’t sure why overturns that form, but if building on last time, wont be far away either – a minor attitude question late in day when under pump, but again, headgear could transform.

3.35 – Israr – 4/1 – Adyar will probably hack up but if track-side this is where my £2 would go, in the hope of paying for a post race pint with the profits, with 50p change! (urgh). He needs the fav to underperform but you never know, if there’s a strong breeze and no showers, this ground may be quick enough for him and Israr is still open to progress and has some solid form, maybe given too much to do last time. I wonder if Jim will try and make-all here, or at least race more prominently. Jim and the Gosden’s are 7/19,10p, +13.5 SP when teaming up in the last year.

4.10 – Dubai Treasure 9/1 – Miss Information 10/1 – not much thinking here, I’ve gone with the two trainer qualifiers from my angles above. That will do! It looks a minefield of a race and if I were track-side today I’d endeavour to use my track-side eye – which I find with 2YOs is ok at putting a line through horses – those who sweat up, on toes, go to post too keen etc, but it’s harder to then land on the right one! Dubai Treasure would prob be favoured of those two, simply because SBS has 1st time out winners here, and Andrew hasn’t in recent years, but has the odd place with debutants at this meeting, and at prices. So, we will see. Both yards in decent form and I thought those that have a runs to their name may not set a great standard and are beatable / open to attack from a special debutant. Here’s hoping!

4.45 – Mostabshir – 5/1 (Next Best) – I can’t understand why he’s so big here, maybe I’ll soon find out! Another for the Crowley/Gosden stats mentioned above. NOTE – I think this one needs it quick, so if after the early races the times etc suggest they’ve over watered, OR if they get a very heavy shower which eases the ground – this one’s chances will be compromised – however, if it’s Good to Firm come his race, I think his price is massive. They clearly think plenty of him, pitched into The Craven on seasonal return but they hadn’t been able to train on grass and the ground went softer that day, which he didn’t like. Returned to a road at York, he blitzed them, quickening twice (only smart horses do that), giving weight away to some decent animals. He won like a C1 horse and I’m sure he’ll prove himself up to Listed+ level at some stage, hopefully today! Ascot was an ok run, thereabouts to 1f out, but that was Day 1 of the meeting, they’d had loads of rain the evening before etc – of course it was a deep race also, a G1, the two Guineas winners 1-2, and Paddington has since won the Eclipse. Ignoring Nostrum for a moment, Mostabshir now drops in class against horses who’ve either been running in handicaps or winning novices.

IF the ground stays quick and getting back to his York form, and improving I think he’s got them all beat bar… Nostrum – he can beat me at 5/2, which he may do, I don’t know if Sir Michael has him fully wound up here, given he had a set-back pre Guineas and hasn’t been rushed – no doubt bigger targets await later in the season, but he brings the best form to the table and If a1 here, is the horse to beat.

5.25 – Bodorgan- 4/1 (NAP) – Charlie Hills has won this race previously (so has the in-form Ed Walker, Bling On The Music, 11s) and he’s one of the few horses in here with upside potential in handicaps. Ryan rode him to win a Novice at the back end of last season, on Rowley, and his 2Yo form suggests this mark could look workable at some stage. This season hasn’t really gone to plan as yet but he’s run in some deep C2s, proper C2 handicaps, and this is a drop in class, and many stronger C3s than this to my eyes also. Still, he’s run ok, shaping with promise at Haydock, keen, trapped wide the whole way, bang there until 1f out. And he was trapped wide at Sandown also, shuffled too far back and also too keen. Hopefully Ryan is the key to him and maybe he’ll try and settle him on the front end and dictate, not impossible. I can’t say he’s overpriced but if there’s one horse in here to laugh at their mark, it could well be him off 9st. 3YOs and 4Yos have dominated this race in recent years.

Glenfinnan – a trainer angle qualifier above – 7/2 was just too short for me on seasonal reappearance and his form is hard to get a grip on, but he’s unexposed, unlike many in here. He’s now drifting to 5s or so, hopefully a sign he will need the run, I’ll just watch him here.

*

If you have any fancies, either at Newmarket or elsewhere, do post below, or even just say hello! 🙂