Billy The Kid Fancied To Land Big Northumberland Plate Pot
I was perhaps being a bit too optimistic last week, hoping that Give It Some Teddy was still good enough to win a class 3 handicap and to do so away from soft ground. He certainly outran his early odds of 20/1 and although not good enough on the day, I’d be very happy to back him in a class 4 or 5 handicap at Redcar on softish ground before the season is out.
No Friday Feeling
I’ve switched my attention to Saturday twice previously this season and those previews have provided winners at 8/1 and 10/1 (25p rule 4 on the latter). It’s not superstition that is making me turn to Saturday’s racing this week but I wasn’t sure I’d even be having a bet on Friday’s card until Newcastle’s evening fixture was priced up and by then it was too late to write this column in time.
Northumberland Plate Gets The Call
It’s the Northumberland Plate and Northumberland Vase that appeal from Saturday’s racing unsurprisingly. They are the big handicaps of the day and I do like a staying handicap so it’s just a case of picking between the two. I quite like Legendary Day in the consolation race but he’s a bit quirky and ran poorly last time (with some excuses) so I’m more confident about getting a run for our money in the Plate itself.
Draw And Pace Not As You Might Expect
As usual, the lazy pundits on Saturday will be telling you that you want to be drawn low in this but that’s not the case. Both middle and high perform better than the low drawn horses and that’s very easily explained. Yes they might cover slightly more ground on the way round but once they hit the straight the runners will likely all come near side (if they have any sense). Those that are on the outside will find it easier to get across to the favoured near side rail than those that saved ground on the inner of the course. There isn’t a massive amount in it but low teens is probably ideal.
In terms of pace bias over this trip, it’s pretty fair but you don’t usually want to be held up in dead last (that applies to almost anywhere to be fair). There isn’t a massive amount of pace in this with Matchless and Golden Rules looking the likely pace setters and there are barely any prominent racers either which would be a slight worry for those likely to be most patiently ridden.
Do We Believe The Owner?
The owner of Golden Rules, one of those likely pace angles, has been telling everyone that his horse definitely wins this contest. That clip going around Twitter on Thursday seemed to be the main catalyst for the horse halving in price after the final decs came out. It’s no great surprise that he’s bullish, he has one of the favourites in the Northumberland Plate and the other two horses he owns are rated 49 and 51 so this is his big day out as an owner. There are probably ten other owners in the race who think their horses will win, they just haven’t been filmed by Sky Sports Racing saying that.
In fairness, Golden Rules does have decent form credentials. On his latest start after almost two years off the track he made all at Kempton and the 2nd and 3rd both won a few runs later. Dominating this field would be a lot more difficult though, even if there is only one other front runner in the field and he did get the run of the race that day so probably isn’t as good as the bare form. He was seemingly put away for this after that run, as it came three months ago, and this ex John Gosden inmate has a likeable all weather profile but others have been operating at a higher level.
Absence A Concern For Haggas Runner
Post Impressionist is very easy to like. He proved a smart handicapper last season and he should really be unbeaten over staying trips but he was extremely unlucky not to win on his penultimate start, badly hampered close home. He’s very much proven over this course, he was 2nd to subsequent St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov here last season over 10f, a trip that was too short for both of them. It’s difficult to judge how much improvement he’s open to over this extra couple of furlongs or how much he might improve on what is only his 2nd season on the track but this is a big ask on his first run since October. That’s the only nagging doubt with this runner.
Zoffee Has Excellent Credentials Back At Scene Of His Biggest Success
Zoffee, who won the consolation race 12 months ago, is a really fun horse to go to war with as he always seems to run his race. This looks Zoffee’s optimum trip yet it will be only his 3rd run at 2m and he’s unlucky to have tasted defeat over the distance. The victory here a year ago was a comfortable one and then later in the season he was a very unlucky in running 3rd at York behind Alfred Boucher and that winner would go within a short head of winning the Ebor next time out so that’s hardly bad form. Zoffee has spent most of the past year running over trips in excess of 16f and not quite getting home and this is his chance to prove he’s still well handicapped at the right distance.
The one negative is that the horse had a hard race 11 days ago at Royal Ascot when 3rd and there is a chance he might not be fully over that but he did go close in a big handicap at Newmarket’s July meeting last year just 13 days after winning the Northumberland Vase so he’s shown he takes his racing well. He has everything else in his favour though and looks sure to go well.
Progressive 4yo Worth Noting
Adjuvant has been carefully placed this season and he’s unlucky to have tasted defeat as a 4yo. He was 2nd, narrowly beaten, in a strong Newmarket handicap that has thrown up five subsequent winners. The ground was soft enough for him that day and he’s only 4lbs higher here so you’d fancy him from that run alone.
He’s since come out and won, again back at Newmarket over 14f. He was pulling away late on having looked in a little bit of trouble 2f out suggesting he should get the trip here and it’s worth noting that wasn’t a bad race either with the 2nd and 5th winning since.
The trip is an unknown as, like Post Impressionist, he’s never gone further than 1m6f. His sire has a good record with his offspring at this trip though and one of his half siblings stayed 3m1f over jumps so there is plenty of stamina on both sides of the pedigree. He has also run as though he’d stay further both last season and this season.
Unlikely many of these, Adjuvant is unproven on the all weather too. It’s worth noting that his sire, New Bay, does particularly well on tapeta and there is no reason he shouldn’t take to the surface, for all it’s an added risk.
Ideally you’d probably want to be drawn a bit higher than stall 7 but we’ll have to trust the excellent Billy Loughnane with that. His 3lb claim could be vital in such a competitive race.
Best Of The Rest
The Sir Mark Prescott runner, Omniscient, could improve for this trip but he’s well up in class and has way too much to prove. Calling the Wind and Nathaneal Greene are two at bigger prices who could run well but the former is very difficult to win with and the latter doesn’t look a guaranteed stayer. If he does stay the current 14s would be very big.
Final Verdict
I hope the owner of Golden Rules is wrong about his horse’s chance as I’m not overly keen on him. I much prefer Post Impressionist of the two very early favourites but I’m always reluctant to back runners after an absence and surely we would have seen this horse earlier this season if he’d had an uninterrupted prep? I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he won but couldn’t back him at this sort of price.
Despite some question marks over the trip and the track (neither should be a problem) I think ADJUVANT represents a good each way bet at about 6/1 (many bookies paying 6 places) and I’ll be looking to have a medium strength bet on Michael Bell’s runner. Pretty much all his runs at 12f+ have been excellent and he’s been shaping as though he’ll improve for the step up in trip. If he merely stays he should go close, if he improves he’ll be extremely difficult to beat.
Zoffee is my idea of the main danger back at 2 miles and I might even be tempted to have a very small reverse forecast on the pair, for all it’s a bit fanciful in a race of this nature. Back in 2011 I backed the winning 4,000/1 tricast in this race so stranger things have happened!
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