Sam’s full article will follow Friday morning, I’ve left the house for the evening having failed to schedule it and my phone isn’t playing ball!
Sam’s fancy is an EW bet (if an EW price) on GIVE IT SOME TEDDY in the 3.30pm Redcar
*
Sam’s full article will follow Friday morning, I’ve left the house for the evening having failed to schedule it and my phone isn’t playing ball!
Sam’s fancy is an EW bet (if an EW price) on GIVE IT SOME TEDDY in the 3.30pm Redcar
*
2 responses
FULL PREVIEW
TEDDY WON’T GET STUFFED AT REDCAR
The good form of this column continues with Paradias winning last week at a juicy starting price of 15/2 at Sandown. I really couldn’t understand why he was such a big price and I still don’t understand!
Swerving Ascot This Week
I could try and point you in the direction of a winner in one of the Ascot handicaps but I’ve found them pretty impossible and frustrating so far this week and I’m more interested in a race that won’t be grabbing the headlines. That race is the 3.30pm at Redcar and it’s a class 3 handicap on the straight mile.
Hot Pace Likely
I’m never in love with backing hold up performers at Redcar but if ever a race was going to set up for something patiently ridden it could be this one. I’ve got Spirit Catcher, Imperial Sands and probably Wild Side all wanting to make the running, although the latter might be more patiently ridden going up in trip. Perseverants and Mahanakhon also don’t mind getting on with it either and they could be putting pressure on the lead too.
Guesswork Over Prices
As things stand I’m writing this without any markets to guide me but I’m pretty confident my selection will be a backable price as there are a few in here that will help make the market.
Wild Side is a lightly raced 3yo who has won her last two races so she looks sure to be favourite to me. I think Connor Planas is excellent value for his claim so I’m slightly annoyed she has his services and it’s maybe slightly ominous that trainer George Boughey said she was one of their top juveniles last year before picking up an injury. However I’m not 100% convinced this step up to a mile will suit given she’s been running over sharper, speed favouring tests so far. Also the horse she beat by a neck last time out was beaten by over 6 lengths next time so I’m not sure how strong her form is either. She might win but I’m happy to take her on.
Baryshnikov will be near the head of the market as he’s a talented horse who ran well here last time out but all his form is over 10f and he’s usually getting there too late over that trip so I don’t fancy him here even if there’s a strong pace.
Spirit Catcher is likely to be prominent in the betting and he’s a horse I was backing at the back end of last season. His three course and distance runs last season all worked out really well and he’s still very much feasibly handicapped. I’m just surprised he’s making his seasonal reapprance towards the end of June and it’s likely he’s had an issue so he could just need the run more than he would so normally, but he did win first time out last season.
Easterby Has Strong Hand
Tim Easterby runs two with chances here. Mahanakhon is lightly raced and will probably enjoy this easier ground than he got at Leicester when running well.
I don’t think Mahanakhon is particularly well handicapped but I do think veteran Give It Some Teddy Is. After his run at Ripon in May, where I tipped Isla Kai, I pinpointed five horses to follow from that race. One of them was 2nd at 20/1 before winning at 11/2, another won at 14/1 next time and then placed at 11/1, one of them was a very unlucky 3rd at 12/1 next time and another one of those runners was Give It Some Teddy, who I said should be backed when returning to his beloved Redcar.
Six of his nine wins have come at this venue and given two of the last three have come on heavy ground, this week’s rain that turned the going good to soft still on Wednesday will have been very welcome. I’m under no illusions that it will be pushing good to firm by the time this race is run but he was a close 2nd on good to firm here last season off a 1lb higher mark and the horse that beat him that day is now rated a stone higher.
Even his seasonal debut here gives him an excellent chance despite it coming when his trainer’s horses were very much needing the run. He finished 4th in a race where the 1st, 3rd, 7th, 8th and 9th have all won since and the 2nd, 5th and 6th have all run very well in defeat since. Give It Some Teddy has come down 3lbs in the ratings since that run.
He’s placed in 10 of his 17 runs here and he enjoys a biggish field and strong pace so he has plenty in his favour here. The only real frustration is that he’s due to come down another 2lbs but that new mark hasn’t kicked in yet. I won’t be happy if he gets beat by 0.75 lengths or less!
Final Verdict
I’m a fan of Spirit Catcher and I’ll be looking to back him at the right time this season but I’m always wary of horses after absences (maybe too wary), especially when that absence is slightly unexplained.
I think I’m going to get an each way price on Give It Some Teddy and if that’s the case, that’s where my money will be going. He’s been dropping in the weights whilst running himself into form and he’s been better than the bare form on all four runs this season. He did particularly well to get as close as he did last time out at Southwell given the race suited those nearer the pace.
He is eligible for weaker races than this, and would ideally prefer easier ground, so I won’t be going crazy but he does look a likely value each way bet given the probable pace scenario. If he doesn’t win here he’ll be doing so when coming back here in the Autumn, especially if dropping back down into a class 4 or even class 5 handicap.
Thanks Sam, apols, I got stuck in London last night and battery died early this morning, have only just walked back in the door.
Josh