Free Tips Friday: Sam Darby’s Flat Preview

Alan King Runner Looks Solid Each Way Bet at Sandown

It was a good call to shift attention to Saturday last week as Chartwell House ran out a very impressive and very well backed winner. He was a general 8/1 early but was available at 10/1 for a little bit before being backed down to 4/1. Bussento was a late withdrawal which cost us a 25p rule 4 before Chartwell House made all, scooting clear to win by 4 lengths. Job done!

My old mate Garden Oasis, who I tipped at 20/1 in this column a couple of weeks ago when 2nd, got the job done next time out at Ayr this week. He’s shown a really good attitude when headed in both his fast ground runs this season and if they can get him to Ripon next time, where he has an excellent record (it suits his front running style so well) he’d have a good chance of following up.

Sandown The Pick On Friday

Quite a punter friendly weekend ahead of us hopefully with the focus seemingly on good quality handicaps more than listed/group races, with the former category what I (and many others) look to bet on.

Friday’s card at York has cut up more than I expected in some of the more interesting races so I’m going to go to Sandown for our Friday Freebie. Their biggest field is 10 in the 3.15pm and that 10f handicap is the one I want to run through here.

King Could Be Crowned A Day Early

It’s the King’s birthday celebrations on Saturday and it’s an Alan King runner that I’m interested in 24 hours earlier in Esher. His runner, Paradias, is one I backed last time out and to say I wasn’t happy with the ride was an understatement.

His form claims for the race at Windsor were pretty clear as he’d run well in several hot races last season as a 3yo.

He may have gone up 6lb for finishing 2nd at Glorious Goodwood in July but he and the winner were miles clear of the 3rd and the winner is now 14lbs higher so in hindsight that 6lb rise is very fair.

Next time out, dropped back to this 10f (again at Goodwood), he finished a fair 3rd behind runners who are now 11lbs and 15lbs higher, Paradias runs off the same mark. Then on his final run last season Paradias contested the Old Rowley Cup which is typically one of the strongest 3yo only handicaps all season. The 3rd, 5th, 9th and 13th have all won since and several others are much higher in the handicap without winning (the runner up has gone up 10lbs for finishing 2nd in a listed race for example).

Then on seasonal debut last time out at Windsor there was very little pace likely and I thought (hoped!) it would be a good opportunity for Rossa Ryan to go forward on a horse that has made all in the past. Instead he was dropped out in last whilst his main market rival, and eventual winner, led early and got a 5 length head start. He closed the gap to 3 lengths in the end and probably bumped into one given it was a John Gosden hotpot and at the very least that effort confirmed Paradias was as good as ever.

I suspect he’ll improve for going back up to 12f but for now he should enjoy the stiff climb at Sandown and I’d hope he’s ridden prominently this time. There are at least a couple of front runners in the field to ensure those held up aren’t a hopeless cause.

Opposing Views On Favourites

In last week’s column I questioned if William Haggas’ string were completely running to form. Well since then the yard has produced form figures of 124133257111254 so I guess that shuts me up. He saddles one of the joint favourites here in the form of Aramaic.

He returned from 20 months off the track at the Dante Meeting a few weeks back and he ran a very respectable staying on 6th in a race where it paid to race nearer the pace. He was given a relatively patient ride that day and raced on what was probably the slower ground on the middle of the track. He was given a relatively easy time in the final furlong and should be marked up on several counts. Connections will surely have been delighted with that run.

I’m more willing to take on the other joint favourite who is Youthful King. This horse did me a favour when winning here on Eclipse day last year but he was well beaten by Paradias next time out at Goodwood with only a few pounds extra in his favour here which suggests he shouldn’t reverse that form. He got a very easy lead last time out at Windsor and was surely flattered by a 3 length win, although he does have a very solid record on good to firm ground (form figures of 1131).

Ground Might Be Livelier Than Ideal For Sweet Reward

Sweet Reward is the same sort of price as Paradias early and he was a little unlucky not to win last time out at Newbury. He likes it round here but he’s never won on fast ground, although he was 2nd on fast ground here last season on the same card that Youthful King won on.

That run came off this mark and I can see him running pretty well again but I’ll be leaving him out of my calculations for win purposes with both Aramaic and Paradias being open to more improvement.

Best Of The Rest

Spirit Of The Bay looks like he’s got himself badly handicapped again after winning in a relatively small field last time out. He has conditions in his favour here but has that look of a horse that is going to find three or four too good in this class of race.

Nobel looked a horse going places after winning his first two runs last season but he ran poorly in a soft ground listed race on his final run of the year. He didn’t bounce back on faster ground last time when well behind Aramaic though and given he was sent off favourite and beaten so far it didn’t look to just be a case of needing the run. He should help contest the pace here and he’s on a watching brief until he runs much better.

The remaining three runners are all big prices. Lord Protector is one I thought might run well at a big price last time out but he again ran poorly and unless he’s just hated Epsom on both runs this season he just seems massively out of form. Spinaround was well behind Paradias last time and has little hope of reversing that form unless finding some improvement out of nowhere whilst the inconsistent Fast Steps looks on a stiff mark.

Final Verdict

William Hill are the only ones with prices at the time of writing and based on their odds I’m not being particularly original by suggesting the three to concentrate on here are probably Paradias, Aramaic and Sweet Reward. The latter has a fair chance of reaching the money but I think he’s up against it in terms of beating the less exposed pair.

Aramaic has a really nice profile and maybe has the potential to be better handicapped than PRADIAS but my fancy has the slightly stronger form in my opinion and I’m very keen to back him each way if William Hill’s 11/2 is replicated elsewhere. He’d rate a pretty solid each way bet or a small win only bet if he ends up being 9/2 of shorter once the other bookies get involved.

I’ll also be tempted to have an additional bet in running. If Paradias is dropped out in last again I’ll leave it alone but if he’s ridden prominently this time around I might have a little top up as I think those tactics will see him to good effect here.

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